Miguel Díaz
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 221 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.41
FIP4.64
K%22.1%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%9.0%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p6327.3%
K%
p9029.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.258
FB (30%)
CH (50%)
SL (20%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 7 | 5 | 20 | 81 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 71% | 2.9 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 2.21 | 3.40 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 7 | 5 | 20 | 81 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 71% | 2.9 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 22.2% | 1.2% | 2.21 | 2.21 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 26 | 15 | 95 | 404 | 91 | 28 | 7 | 58% | 3.6 | 16.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 3.71 | 3.66 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 26 | 15 | 95 | 404 | 91 | 28 | 7 | 58% | 3.6 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 15.6% | 1.7% | 3.71 | 3.03 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 5 | 51 | 230 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 15% | 1.5 | 17.2% | 13.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.53 | 6.68 | -1.3 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 5 | 51 | 230 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 15% | 1.5 | 17.4% | 12.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.53 | 6.04 | -0.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 11 | 97 | 419 | 111 | 53 | 8 | 31% | 2.8 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 3.62 | 4.38 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 11 | 97 | 419 | 111 | 53 | 8 | 31% | 2.8 | 26.5% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 3.62 | 3.52 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 8 | 37 | 157 | 44 | 11 | 11 | 53% | 2.4 | 27.6% | 9.1% | 18.5% | 6.7% | 4.42 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 8 | 37 | 157 | 44 | 11 | 11 | 53% | 2.4 | 28.0% | 7.0% | 21.0% | 7.0% | 4.42 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 4 | 58 | 254 | 67 | 33 | 12 | 10% | 1.5 | 25.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 4.68 | 5.22 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 4 | 58 | 254 | 67 | 33 | 12 | 10% | 1.5 | 26.4% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 4.7% | 4.68 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 69 | 299 | 72 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 4.19 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 69 | 299 | 72 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 4.19 | 3.35 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 3 | 71 | 309 | 89 | 31 | 3 | 5% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 10.5% | 15.5% | 1.3% | 4.18 | 2.96 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 3 | 71 | 309 | 89 | 31 | 3 | 5% | 1.2 | 28.8% | 10.0% | 18.8% | 1.0% | 4.18 | 2.45 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 47 | 203 | 54 | 17 | 0 | 3% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 4.21 | 2.22 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 47 | 203 | 54 | 17 | 0 | 3% | 1.2 | 26.6% | 8.4% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 4.21 | 1.89 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 50 | 0 | 57 | 238 | 55 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 3.45 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 50 | 0 | 57 | 238 | 55 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 1.7% | 3.45 | 3.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | SF | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 59 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 52 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SF | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 46 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SF | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 25 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 8 | 178 | 763 | 177 | 92 | 28 | 6% | 1.3 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.69 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 9 | 200 | 857 | 199 | 103 | 31 | 6% | 1.3 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 366 | 52 | 601 | 2594 | 567 | 291 | 71 | 14% | 1.6 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.18 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 17 | 200 | 863 | 189 | 97 | 24 | 14% | 1.6 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Díaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.1% | 13.1% | 2.5% | — | 5.02 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 111 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 88 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 82 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 75 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 75 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 75 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 73 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 73 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 73 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 2.5% | .296 | 2.55 | 33.3% | 22.0% | 162 | -1.67 | 1.99 | 488 | 73 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 1.06 | 4.68 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |