Miguel Díaz — OGILVIE

Miguel Díaz P Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 221 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.33

FIP4.50

K%21.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p9029.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.258

FB (30%)

CH (50%)

SL (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	7	5	20	81	23	5	1	71%	2.9	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	1.7%	2.21	3.40	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	7	5	20	81	23	5	1	71%	2.9	28.4%	6.2%	22.2%	1.2%	2.21	2.21	—
2016	21	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	15	95	404	91	28	7	58%	3.6	16.7%	8.2%	8.5%	1.9%	3.71	3.79	—
2016	21	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	15	95	404	91	28	7	58%	3.6	22.5%	6.9%	15.6%	1.7%	3.71	3.03	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	5	51	230	40	29	11	15%	1.5	17.2%	13.0%	4.2%	5.6%	6.53	6.37	-1.1
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	5	51	230	40	29	11	15%	1.5	17.4%	12.6%	4.8%	4.8%	6.53	6.04	-0.9
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	11	97	419	111	53	8	31%	2.8	23.1%	13.5%	9.5%	2.4%	3.62	4.16	+0.4
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	11	97	419	111	53	8	31%	2.8	26.5%	12.6%	13.8%	1.9%	3.62	3.52	+1.2
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	8	37	157	44	11	11	53%	2.4	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	8.3%	4.42	6.49	-0.7
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	8	37	157	44	11	11	53%	2.4	28.0%	7.0%	21.0%	7.0%	4.42	5.50	-0.3
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	4	58	254	67	33	12	10%	1.5	25.4%	13.3%	12.1%	4.6%	4.68	5.15	-0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	4	58	254	67	33	12	10%	1.5	26.4%	13.0%	13.4%	4.7%	4.68	5.20	-0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	69	299	72	32	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.1%	10.3%	1.9%	4.19	3.73	+0.7
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	69	299	72	32	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.7%	13.4%	1.7%	4.19	3.35	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	3	71	309	89	31	3	5%	1.2	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	1.2%	4.18	2.82	+1.5
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	3	71	309	89	31	3	5%	1.2	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	1.2%	4.18	2.82	+1.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	3	71	309	89	31	3	5%	1.2	28.8%	10.0%	18.8%	1.0%	4.18	2.45	+1.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	47	203	54	17	0	3%	1.2	22.4%	7.7%	14.8%	0.0%	4.21	2.18	+1.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	47	203	54	17	0	3%	1.2	22.4%	7.7%	14.8%	0.0%	4.21	2.18	+1.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	47	203	54	17	0	3%	1.2	26.6%	8.4%	18.2%	0.0%	4.21	1.89	+1.5
2025	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	57	238	55	32	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	2.0%	3.45	4.09	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	57	238	55	32	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	2.0%	3.45	4.09	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	57	238	55	32	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	13.4%	9.7%	1.7%	3.45	3.76	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	8	127	549	132	62	22	9%	1.4	24.0%	11.3%	12.8%	4.0%	4.81	4.73	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	SF	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.6%	9.6%	2.5%	4.33	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	245	50	29	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.0%	8.4%	2.7%	4.59	4.76	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	SF	51	0	53	225	44	28	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	3.0%	4.86	5.04	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	SF	20	0	21	89	18	11	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.0%	8.4%	2.7%	4.59	4.76	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	SF	28	0	29	122	24	15	4	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	3.0%	4.86	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	8	178	763	175	88	28	6%	1.3	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.7%	4.79	4.65	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		153	9	200	857	197	99	31	6%	1.3	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.7%	4.79	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		366	52	601	2594	558	280	71	14%	1.6	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.15	4.14	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	17	200	863	186	93	23	14%	1.6	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.15	4.14	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	21.2%	11.6%	2.5%	—	4.89	20.0%	7.8%	111	+0.39	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	89
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	83
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	80
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	79
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	79
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	78
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	78
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	77
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	77
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	77
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	76
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	76
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	76
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	75
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	20.4%	12.0%	1.04	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82