Miguel Díaz — OGILVIE

Miguel Díaz P Sacramento River Cats

+0.3 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 221 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

ERA2.80

FIP4.24

xFIP6.19

SIERA7.35

K%22.5%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.3%

IP51

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p9029.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.258

FB (30%)

CH (50%)

SL (20%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	20	ROK	AZL Brewers	7	5	20	81	23	5	1	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	2.21	3.40	+0.4
2016	21	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	15	95	404	91	28	7	16.7%	8.2%	1.9%	3.71	3.77	+1.6
2017	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	34	5	51	230	40	29	11	17.2%	13.0%	6.1%	6.53	6.67	-1.0
2018	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	35	11	97	419	111	53	8	23.1%	13.5%	2.4%	3.62	4.16	+1.2
2019	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	15	8	37	157	44	11	11	27.6%	9.1%	7.6%	4.42	6.12	-0.5
2021	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	39	4	58	254	67	33	12	25.4%	13.3%	4.6%	4.68	5.17	-0.1
2022	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	61	0	69	299	72	32	5	21.3%	11.1%	1.9%	4.19	3.73	+1.0
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	61	3	71	309	89	31	3	26.0%	10.5%	1.1%	4.18	2.86	+1.8
2024	29	MLB	Houston Astros	38	1	47	203	54	17	0	23.8%	8.9%	0.0%	4.21	2.22	+1.5
2025	30	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	57	238	55	32	4	20.3%	14.1%	1.9%	3.45	4.23	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	SF	51	—	51	217	50	27	5	22.8%	12.3%	2.4%	2.94	4.45	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	SF	49	—	49	208	46	26	5	22.2%	12.4%	2.5%	3.92	4.57	+0.2
2028	33	MLB	SF	47	—	47	199	43	25	5	21.5%	12.6%	2.6%	4.38	4.69	+0.1
2029	34	MLB	SF	45	—	45	189	39	24	5	20.8%	12.8%	2.7%	4.65	4.83	+0.1
2030	35	MLB	SF	42	—	42	178	36	23	5	20.1%	13.1%	2.8%	4.85	4.98	-0.0
2031	36	MLB	SF	39	—	39	166	32	22	5	19.3%	13.3%	2.9%	5.03	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			366	52	601	2594	567	291	71	21.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.15	4.17	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—			122	17	200	863	189	97	24	21.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.15	4.17	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.8%	12.3%	2.4%	—	4.69	21.5%	8.9%	141	+0.24	—	—	—
Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	87
Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	31	SW	4.01	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.63	3.38	129	86
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	86
Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	83
Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP	30	SW	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	83
Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	82
Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	20.6%	10.8%	1.1%	.333	3.78	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.47	3.31	244	80
Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	31	SU	4.63	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	80
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	79
Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	31	SW	3.75	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.96	3.75	521	79
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	79
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	78
Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	31	SW	3.54	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	78
Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP	31	SW	5.21	19.1%	9.4%	4.6%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.26	3.80	132	77
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	77
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	31	SW	3.52	22.5%	10.9%	1.7%	.247	3.95	20.5%	11.4%	113	+0.43	3.17	272	77
Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	31	SW	4.43	25.9%	15.2%	2.9%	.296	2.61	33.3%	22.0%	162	-1.82	2.15	488	76
Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	76
Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	31	SW	4.92	22.2%	13.5%	3.6%	.302	2.51	27.3%	19.4%	98	-2.41	1.54	521	76

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.