Francis Aquino — OGILVIE

Francis Aquino P DSL Arizona Black

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.5%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	5	0	6	33	9	11	1	0%	1.1	27.3%	33.3%	-6.1%	3.0%	11.12	6.68	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	5	0	6	33	9	11	1	0%	1.1	27.3%	33.3%	-6.1%	3.0%	11.12	6.68	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	5	0	6	33	9	11	1	0%	1.1	27.3%	33.3%	-6.1%	3.0%	11.12	8.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	10	38	173	37	27	0	91%	3.5	14.5%	19.5%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.45	4.34	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	10	38	173	37	27	0	91%	3.5	14.5%	19.5%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.45	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	ARI	11	10	38	173	37	27	0	91%	3.5	21.4%	15.6%	5.8%	0.0%	5.45	3.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	39	165	38	19	5	100%	4.3	23.0%	11.7%	11.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.63	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	19	80	18	9	2	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.7%	11.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.63	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	19	81	19	10	2	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.7%	11.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.25	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	198	104	21	100%	4.6	23.0%	11.7%	11.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		16	10	44	206	34	45	1	62%	2.7	16.6%	21.7%	-5.1%	0.5%	6.18	4.72	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	46	200	944	156	205	5	62%	2.7	16.6%	21.7%	-5.1%	0.5%	6.18	4.72	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Aquino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.5%	13.1%	3.0%	—	4.63	23.0%	11.2%	39	-0.24	—	—	—
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	86
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	82
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	82
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	82
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	80
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	79
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	79
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	79
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	79
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	79
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	78
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	78
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	78
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	78
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	77
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	77
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	22.8%	12.3%	1.14	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10