Alexander Cornielle
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.24
FIP5.24
K%17.6%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 4.16 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 4.10 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 6 | 41 | 182 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 55% | 3.7 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 5.71 | 4.08 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 6 | 41 | 182 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 55% | 3.7 | 33.0% | 9.9% | 23.1% | 2.2% | 5.71 | 2.76 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 119 | 510 | 145 | 59 | 12 | 88% | 4.8 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.03 | 4.49 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 119 | 510 | 145 | 59 | 12 | 88% | 4.8 | 28.4% | 11.6% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 3.03 | 3.46 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 20 | 18 | 89 | 377 | 92 | 34 | 6 | 90% | 4.5 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 4.55 | 3.85 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 20 | 18 | 89 | 377 | 92 | 34 | 6 | 90% | 4.5 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 1.6% | 4.55 | 3.06 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 22 | 20 | 104 | 435 | 98 | 39 | 10 | 91% | 4.7 | 17.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.59 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 22 | 20 | 104 | 435 | 98 | 39 | 10 | 91% | 4.7 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 4.31 | 3.59 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 137 | 595 | 135 | 71 | 15 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.6% | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 4.42 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 137 | 595 | 135 | 71 | 15 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 4.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 9 | 9 | 32 | 138 | 36 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.6% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 96 | 412 | 84 | 56 | 11 | — | — | 20.5% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 17.6% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 87 | 366 | 68 | 45 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 87 | 366 | 69 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 86 | 361 | 69 | 43 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 48 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 176 | 744 | 140 | 90 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.58 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 102 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 104 | 526 | 2253 | 444 | 282 | 55 | 87% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 12.5% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 4.35 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 857 | 169 | 107 | 21 | 87% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 12.5% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 4.35 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Cornielle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 17.6% | 13.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.96 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 259 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 88 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 88 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 86 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 86 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 86 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 85 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 85 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 85 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 85 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 85 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 84 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 83 |
| Michael Wagner R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 82 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | 5.68 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 29 | +1.60 | 3.93 | 223 | 82 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 82 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.14 | 4.27 | 279 | 82 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 82 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 82 |
| Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 321 | 80 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.20 | 4.21 | 347 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 86 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 1.08 | 5.05 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Dakota Hudson ('24) | 6 | 92 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 4.25 |