Alexander Cornielle

Alexander Cornielle P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%17.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	3	0	4	16	4	4	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.25	4.16	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers	3	0	4	16	4	4	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.25	4.10	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	6	41	182	60	18	4	55%	3.7	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	2.1%	5.71	4.01	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	6	41	182	60	18	4	55%	3.7	33.0%	9.9%	23.1%	2.2%	5.71	2.76	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	119	510	145	59	12	88%	4.8	21.2%	13.6%	7.5%	2.8%	3.03	4.57	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	119	510	145	59	12	88%	4.8	28.4%	11.6%	16.9%	2.4%	3.03	3.46	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	18	89	377	92	34	6	90%	4.5	18.8%	10.4%	8.4%	1.9%	4.55	3.88	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	18	89	377	92	34	6	90%	4.5	18.8%	10.4%	8.4%	1.9%	4.55	3.88	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	18	89	377	92	34	6	90%	4.5	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	1.6%	4.55	3.06	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	20	104	435	98	39	10	91%	4.7	17.3%	10.3%	7.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.55	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	20	104	435	98	39	10	91%	4.7	17.3%	10.3%	7.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.55	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	20	104	435	98	39	10	91%	4.7	22.5%	9.0%	13.6%	2.3%	4.31	3.59	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	595	135	71	15	100%	4.7	18.4%	12.8%	5.7%	2.6%	3.81	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	595	135	71	15	100%	4.7	18.4%	12.8%	5.7%	2.6%	3.81	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	137	595	135	71	15	100%	4.7	22.7%	11.9%	10.8%	2.5%	3.81	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	18	78	336	81	42	7	95%	4.1	19.5%	11.2%	8.3%	2.3%	3.10	4.16	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	18	78	336	81	42	7	95%	4.1	19.5%	11.2%	8.3%	2.3%	3.10	4.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	NYY	2	2	4	26	7	4	0	100%	2.1	26.9%	15.4%	11.5%	0.0%	10.38	2.78	—
2026	24	A RAW	NYY	1	1	4	14	3	2	0	100%	3.7	21.4%	14.3%	7.1%	0.0%	2.45	3.10	—
2026	24	AA RAW	NYY	1	1	4	15	5	1	1	100%	4.3	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	6.7%	2.08	4.79	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	NYY	15	14	66	281	66	35	6	93%	4.4	23.5%	12.5%	11.0%	2.1%	2.73	3.87	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	8	33	6	4	1	100%	7.8	17.4%	13.2%	4.2%	2.9%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	86	369	87	46	8	—	—	23.5%	12.6%	11.0%	2.2%	3.30	4.26	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	125	527	96	63	15	100%	5.9	18.3%	12.0%	6.2%	2.9%	5.08	5.04	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	125	527	99	62	15	100%	5.9	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	2.9%	4.98	4.96	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	123	519	98	60	15	100%	6.1	18.9%	11.6%	7.4%	2.9%	4.95	4.96	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	119	503	95	58	15	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.0%	4.99	5.02	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	480	90	57	15	100%	6.0	18.6%	11.8%	6.8%	3.2%	5.09	5.16	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	107	452	83	55	15	100%	5.9	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.4%	5.24	5.33	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	60	253	46	31	8	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.0%	6.2%	3.1%	5.19	5.15	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	86	363	68	42	11	100%	6.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	3.1%	5.09	5.07	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	97	410	78	47	13	100%	6.1	18.9%	11.6%	7.4%	3.1%	5.06	5.07	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	102	431	81	50	14	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	5.10	5.13	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	100	422	79	50	14	100%	5.9	18.6%	11.8%	6.8%	3.4%	5.21	5.28	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	97	410	75	50	15	100%	6.1	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.6%	5.37	5.46	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	91	543	2295	428	271	75	100%	6.0	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	3.3%	5.17	4.82	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	100	28	100%	6.0	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	3.3%	5.17	4.82	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		129	113	573	2451	477	297	61	88%	4.4	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	2.5%	3.88	4.36	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	856	167	104	21	88%	4.4	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	2.5%	3.88	4.36	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Cornielle (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	17.4%	13.2%	2.9%	—	4.99	18.7%	6.9%	372	-0.27	—	—	—
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	87
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	87
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	87
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	87
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	86
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	86
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	86
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	86
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	86
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	85
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	83
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	83
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	83
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	83
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.96	17.9%	8.2%	286	-1.30	3.70	466	82
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	114	18.5%	12.0%	1.17	5.07
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48