Alexander Cornielle
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.86
FIP4.86
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.1%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%8.4%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 11 | 6 | 41 | 182 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 5.71 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 25 | 22 | 119 | 510 | 145 | 59 | 12 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 3.03 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 20 | 18 | 89 | 377 | 92 | 34 | 6 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 4.55 | 3.88 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 22 | 20 | 104 | 435 | 98 | 39 | 10 | 17.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 29 | 29 | 137 | 595 | 135 | 71 | 15 | 18.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 102 | 59 | 15 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 117 | 60 | 16 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.67 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 125 | 61 | 17 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 128 | 62 | 18 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 128 | 62 | 18 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 124 | 61 | 18 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 119 | 60 | 18 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 114 | 58 | 17 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 108 | 57 | 17 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 101 | 55 | 17 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 95 | 53 | 16 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 87 | 51 | 16 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 80 | 49 | 15 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 95 | 494 | 2115 | 413 | 261 | 55 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.01 | 4.44 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 38 | 200 | 856 | 167 | 106 | 22 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.01 | 4.44 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Cornielle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.63 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 417 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 91 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 90 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | .258 | 5.07 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.79 | 4.28 | 151 | 89 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 89 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 89 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.28 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.42 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 481 | 89 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 88 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 88 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 87 |
| Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 87 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 87 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 87 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 86 |
| Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 86 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.36 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.15 | 3.11 | 640 | 86 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 86 |
| Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.60 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.60 | 321 | 86 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.02 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 169 | -1.25 | 3.56 | 269 | 85 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 85 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $8M | $46M | +$38M | ||