Sadbiel Delzine — OGILVIE

Sadbiel Delzine P FCL Red Sox

Age 18 RHP 6'5" / 198 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.9 · 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%24.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$46M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4550

CTRL4050

CMD3040

K†5565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$12M		$22M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	3	3	9	39	9	1	0	100%	3.1	23.1%	2.6%	20.5%	0.0%	4.82	1.48	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	3	3	9	39	9	1	0	100%	3.1	23.1%	2.6%	20.5%	0.0%	4.82	1.48	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	3	3	9	39	9	1	0	100%	3.1	23.1%	2.6%	20.5%	0.0%	4.82	1.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	18	14	65	267	79	24	2	78%	3.6	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	1.0%	2.64	3.27	—
YTD	18	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	18	14	65	267	79	24	2	78%	3.6	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	1.0%	2.64	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	BOS	11	7	40	163	43	18	0	64%	3.6	26.4%	11.0%	15.3%	0.0%	2.72	2.27	—
2026	18	A RAW	BOS	7	7	25	104	36	6	2	100%	3.6	34.6%	5.8%	28.8%	1.9%	2.52	1.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	66	281	68	29	8	100%	4.4	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	2.9%	4.40	4.36	+0.4
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	70	295	73	30	8	100%	4.7	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.9%	4.30	4.24	+0.5
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	73	309	77	30	9	100%	4.9	25.0%	9.8%	15.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.14	+0.7
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	77	325	84	30	9	100%	5.1	25.9%	9.3%	16.5%	2.8%	4.08	3.99	+0.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	80	337	90	30	9	100%	5.3	26.6%	9.0%	17.6%	2.7%	3.95	3.86	+1.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	82	346	94	30	9	100%	5.5	27.2%	8.8%	18.4%	2.7%	3.84	3.77	+1.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	350	96	30	9	100%	5.9	27.5%	8.7%	18.9%	2.7%	3.76	3.71	+1.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	350	97	30	9	100%	5.9	27.7%	8.6%	19.1%	2.7%	3.72	3.69	+1.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	82	345	96	30	9	100%	5.8	27.7%	8.7%	19.0%	2.7%	3.73	3.73	+1.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	79	334	99	27	9	100%	6.1	29.6%	8.0%	21.6%	2.8%	3.62	3.54	+1.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	319	94	26	9	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.3%	21.1%	3.0%	3.65	3.67	+1.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	300	87	26	9	100%	5.9	29.0%	8.6%	20.4%	3.2%	3.77	3.85	+0.9
2039	31	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	280	80	25	9	100%	6.0	28.6%	8.9%	19.7%	3.4%	3.94	4.05	+0.7
2027	19	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	33	139	34	15	4	100%	4.7	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.36	4.32	+0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	51	215	53	22	6	100%	4.6	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.8%	4.26	4.20	+0.4
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	62	262	65	26	7	100%	4.8	25.0%	9.8%	15.2%	2.7%	4.17	4.10	+0.6
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	69	291	75	27	8	100%	4.9	25.9%	9.3%	16.5%	2.7%	4.04	3.95	+0.7
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	74	312	83	28	8	100%	5.3	26.6%	9.0%	17.6%	2.6%	3.91	3.82	+0.9
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	77	325	88	29	8	100%	5.5	27.2%	8.8%	18.4%	2.6%	3.80	3.73	+1.0
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	79	334	92	29	9	100%	5.6	27.5%	8.7%	18.9%	2.6%	3.72	3.67	+1.1
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	79	334	92	29	9	100%	6.1	27.7%	8.6%	19.1%	2.6%	3.68	3.65	+1.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	78	329	91	29	9	100%	6.0	27.7%	8.7%	19.0%	2.6%	3.69	3.69	+1.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	75	317	94	25	9	100%	6.2	29.6%	8.0%	21.6%	2.7%	3.58	3.50	+1.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	89	25	9	100%	6.0	29.4%	8.3%	21.1%	2.9%	3.61	3.63	+1.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	83	25	9	100%	6.2	29.0%	8.6%	20.4%	3.1%	3.73	3.81	+0.9
2039	31	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	63	266	76	24	9	100%	6.3	28.6%	8.9%	19.7%	3.3%	3.89	4.00	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		158	158	878	3707	1015	330	103	100%	5.6	27.4%	8.9%	18.5%	2.8%	3.84	3.44	+15.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	231	75	23	100%	5.6	27.4%	8.9%	18.5%	2.8%	3.84	3.44	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		21	17	74	306	65	31	3	81%	3.5	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	0.8%	2.92	3.04	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	46	200	827	175	83	7	81%	3.5	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	0.8%	2.92	3.04	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sadbiel Delzine (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	24.0%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.24	24.7%	14.6%	210	-0.26	—	—	—
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	87
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	84
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	83
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	83
Jordy Vargas R 2022 · 4.35 FIP	18	SP	4.35	22.1%	10.0%	3.4%	.239	4.64	19.8%	6.3%	95	+0.29	3.02	290	82
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	82
Jordarlin Mendoza R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	18	SP	3.33	23.3%	10.6%	1.6%	.325	5.22	19.7%	-2.2%	54	+1.89	3.33	147	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	80
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	80
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	79
Jose Acuna R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	19	SP-	3.33	23.1%	10.3%	1.6%	.242	4.95	18.2%	6.6%	207	+1.62	3.33	397	79
Andry Lara R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	18	SP-	4.98	19.1%	9.7%	4.1%	.294	4.77	16.6%	6.7%	334	-0.21	4.57	535	78
Deivi García R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	18	SP-	4.54	24.9%	9.7%	4.2%	.287	3.50	26.6%	17.2%	215	-1.04	3.40	646	78
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	78
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	78
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	78
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	77
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	77
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	73	27.1%	9.1%	1.10	3.93
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70