Mikell Manzano — OGILVIE

Mikell Manzano P ACL Giants

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 140 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%17.8%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.9M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	12	11	48	207	70	5	3	92%	4.0	23.0%	3.0%	20.0%	1.9%	3.54	2.58	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	12	11	48	207	70	5	3	92%	4.0	33.8%	2.4%	31.4%	1.4%	3.54	1.32	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	58	254	85	20	5	75%	3.6	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.3%	4.84	3.55	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	58	254	85	20	5	75%	3.6	33.5%	7.9%	25.6%	2.0%	4.84	2.32	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	22	102	21	8	3	67%	2.4	5.7%	10.9%	-5.2%	2.2%	4.91	5.23	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	22	102	21	8	3	67%	2.4	5.7%	10.9%	-5.2%	2.2%	4.91	5.23	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	22	102	21	8	3	67%	2.4	20.6%	7.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.91	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	65	277	47	16	5	39%	3.6	10.8%	7.9%	2.9%	1.6%	3.99	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	65	277	47	16	5	39%	3.6	10.8%	7.9%	2.9%	1.6%	3.99	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	7	65	277	47	16	5	39%	3.6	17.0%	5.8%	11.2%	1.8%	3.99	3.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SF	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	60	255	49	21	7	100%	5.5	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.50	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	61	258	52	21	8	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.41	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	61	258	54	21	8	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.41	4.38	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	60	254	53	21	8	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	26	110	21	9	3	100%	5.2	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	2.7%	4.43	4.38	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	40	169	34	14	5	100%	5.7	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	2.7%	4.34	4.29	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	48	203	42	17	5	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.29	4.26	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	45	18	6	100%	6.4	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.29	4.29	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	166	701	143	58	19	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.32	3.91	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	172	70	23	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.32	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		55	36	193	840	143	62	16	65%	3.5	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	2.0%	4.24	3.68	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	37	200	869	148	64	17	65%	3.5	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	2.0%	4.24	3.68	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mikell Manzano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	17.8%	8.4%	3.0%	—	4.43	20.2%	11.9%	182	-0.24	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	91
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	84
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	83
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	80
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	79
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	78
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	55	20.0%	8.3%	1.14	4.48
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21