Mikell Manzano

P ACL Giants

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 140 lbs ROK peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	MIX2 levels	16	12	58	4.84	2.32	33.5%	7.9%	—	K 23.3% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.55
2023	20	MIX2 levels	9	6	22	4.91	4.05	20.6%	7.8%	—	K 5.7% · BB 10.9% · FIP 5.23
2024	21	MIX3 levels	18	7	65	3.99	3.39	17.0%	5.8%	—	K 10.8% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.05
2025	22	No MLB games played
2026	23	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	24	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.42	4.42	21.2%	8.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSF	3	3	17	4.37	4.35	21.8%	8.5%	0.2

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Andrew Quezada (age 24) · Casey Legumina (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%21.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	12	11	48	207	70	5	3	92%	4.0	23.0%	3.0%	20.0%	1.9%	3.54	2.58	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	12	11	48	207	70	5	3	92%	4.0	33.8%	2.4%	31.4%	1.4%	3.54	1.32	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	58	254	85	20	5	75%	3.6	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.3%	4.84	3.55	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	58	254	85	20	5	75%	3.6	33.5%	7.9%	25.6%	2.0%	4.84	2.32	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	22	102	21	8	3	67%	2.4	5.7%	10.9%	-5.2%	2.2%	4.91	5.23	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	22	102	21	8	3	67%	2.4	20.6%	7.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.91	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	65	277	47	16	5	39%	3.6	10.8%	7.9%	2.9%	1.6%	3.99	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	65	277	47	16	5	39%	3.6	10.8%	7.9%	2.9%	1.6%	3.99	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	7	65	277	47	16	5	39%	3.6	17.0%	5.8%	11.2%	1.8%	3.99	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	41	172	38	15	5	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	4.35	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	3	3	17	72	16	6	2	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	74	16	6	2	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	3.97	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	69	23	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	3.97	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		55	36	193	840	143	62	16	65%	3.5	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	2.0%	4.24	3.68	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	37	200	869	148	64	17	65%	3.5	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	2.0%	4.24	3.68	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 ROKACL Giants · 43 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.72 (+0.74)K% 16.3% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.30%	—	×0.680	11.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.61%	—	×1.250	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.54%	÷1.178	×1.400	0.65%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 16 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.96 (+0.96)K% 13.6% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.740	10.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×1.180	3.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.959	×1.300	4.11%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 7 IPFIP 4.66 → 6.21 (+1.54)K% 29.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.770	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	7.41%	÷1.010	×1.250	9.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 4.66 → 6.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 13 IPFIP 4.46 → 5.23 (+0.77)K% 7.7% → 5.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.69%	—	×0.740	5.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×1.180	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.890	×1.300	2.25%

Result: FIP 4.46 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Giants Black · 9 IPFIP 3.10 → 5.50 (+2.40)K% 43.2% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.24%	—	×0.680	29.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.41%	—	×1.250	6.76%
HR / BF /BF	5.41%	÷1.031	×1.400	7.34%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Giants Orange · 55 IPFIP 2.04 → 3.55 (+1.51)K% 34.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.32%	—	×0.680	23.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.20%	—	×1.250	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.017	×1.400	2.33%

Result: FIP 2.04 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Giants Orange · 48 IPFIP 1.35 → 2.58 (+1.23)K% 33.8% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.82%	—	×0.680	23.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.42%	—	×1.250	3.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.074	×1.400	1.89%

Result: FIP 1.35 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mikell Manzano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	21.2%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.35	21.8%	13.3%	41	-0.07	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	89
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	88
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	87
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	81
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	81
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	80
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	80
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	80
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	79
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	79
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	79
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	21.5%	8.6%	1.15	4.40
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*