Mikell Manzano
P
ACL Giants
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 140 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%22.0%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 12 | 11 | 48 | 207 | 70 | 5 | 3 | 92% | 4.0 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 20.0% | 1.8% | 3.54 | 2.51 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 12 | 11 | 48 | 207 | 70 | 5 | 3 | 92% | 4.0 | 33.8% | 2.4% | 31.4% | 1.4% | 3.54 | 1.32 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 12 | 58 | 254 | 85 | 20 | 5 | 75% | 3.6 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 4.84 | 3.53 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 12 | 58 | 254 | 85 | 20 | 5 | 75% | 3.6 | 33.5% | 7.9% | 25.6% | 2.0% | 4.84 | 2.32 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 6 | 22 | 102 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 67% | 2.4 | 5.7% | 10.9% | -5.2% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 5.41 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 6 | 22 | 102 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 67% | 2.4 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.05 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 7 | 65 | 277 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 39% | 3.6 | 10.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 3.99 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 7 | 65 | 277 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 39% | 3.6 | 17.0% | 5.8% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 3.99 | 3.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 33 | 140 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 34 | 143 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 34 | 145 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 34 | 145 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 34 | 143 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 33 | 138 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.8 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 122 | 517 | 120 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.81 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 74 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 36 | 193 | 840 | 143 | 62 | 16 | 65% | 3.5 | 17.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 4.24 | 3.68 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 37 | 200 | 869 | 148 | 64 | 17 | 65% | 3.5 | 17.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 4.24 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mikell Manzano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.23 | 23.0% | 14.4% | 102 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 88 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 87 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 87 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 86 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 86 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 83 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 83 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 83 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 82 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 81 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 81 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 81 |
| Rico Garcia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 81 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 80 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 80 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 79 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 79 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 34 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 1.15 | 4.29 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |