Jack Hostetler

P Carolina Mudcats

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1666ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ACarolina Mudc…	5	5	15	5.52	2.21	21.5%	7.7%	—	K 15.9% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.90
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIL	—	—	0	4.69	4.69	20.3%	10.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIL	4	4	22	4.68	4.64	21.2%	10.0%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIL	5	5	29	4.60	4.57	21.7%	9.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

CompsLevi Wells (age 22) · Ryan Garcia (age 24) · Chad Patrick (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%20.3%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	5	5	15	65	14	5	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	—
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	5	5	15	65	14	5	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	—
2025	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	5	5	15	65	14	5	0	100%	2.9	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	0.0%	5.52	2.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.69	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	52	221	47	22	6	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.56	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	44	187	41	18	5	100%	5.5	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.49	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	44	186	41	18	5	100%	6.3	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.45	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	43	181	40	18	5	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.0%	4.49	4.49	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	4	4	22	93	20	9	3	100%	5.5	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.64	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	29	122	27	12	4	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	3.1%	4.60	4.57	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	35	148	33	14	5	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.1%	4.56	4.53	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	36	152	34	15	5	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	21	123	520	113	51	16	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.19	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	83	26	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.19	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		5	5	15	65	10	6	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	68	200	886	141	80	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 15 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.90 (+0.65)K% 21.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.54%	—	×0.740	15.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.180	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.214	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Hostetler (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.50	21.6%	11.8%	141	-0.19	—	—	—
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	87
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	81
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	80
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	78
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	78
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	17.0%	8.6%	2.4%	.361	4.25	24.7%	11.2%	167	+0.19	3.05	349	77
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	77
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	77
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	77
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	77
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	77
Chase Solesky R 2021 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	21.3%	9.2%	4.9%	.362	4.76	13.6%	5.4%	311	-0.39	4.07	567	77
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	76
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	21.4%	10.0%	1.13	4.56
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*