Jack Hostetler — OGILVIE

Jack Hostetler P Carolina Mudcats

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%20.1%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	5	5	15	65	14	5	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	—
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	5	5	15	65	14	5	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	—
2025	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	5	5	15	65	14	5	0	100%	2.9	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	0.0%	5.52	2.21	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	MIL	1	1	4	17	3	2	0	100%	4.0	20.1%	10.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	46	195	42	19	6	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.55	4.50	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	48	201	44	19	6	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	2.8%	4.45	4.39	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	48	203	45	19	6	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	2.8%	4.38	4.33	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	48	203	46	19	6	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.31	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	47	200	45	19	6	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.35	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	4	4	23	97	21	10	3	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.58	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	33	139	31	13	4	100%	5.5	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.53	4.47	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	39	165	37	15	5	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.41	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	42	177	40	17	5	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	3.0%	4.42	4.39	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	43	182	41	17	6	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.0%	4.42	4.43	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	180	759	169	72	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.06	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	80	26	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		5	5	15	65	10	6	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	68	200	886	141	80	0	100%	2.9	15.9%	9.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.52	2.90	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Hostetler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	20.1%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.41	21.9%	12.3%	142	-0.26	—	—	—
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.82	20.3%	9.4%	253	+0.83	3.99	380	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	82
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	82
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	81
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	80
Jeff Criswell R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	18.5%	9.2%	2.6%	.242	5.28	21.4%	11.3%	306	+1.14	4.14	349	80
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	79
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	79
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	79
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	79
Elvis Luciano R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	17.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	204	78
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	78
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	21.8%	9.6%	1.11	4.45
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93