Lucas Elissalt
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
+0.8
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.2 · 2030
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
IP90
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2030
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 22 | 16 | 90 | 372 | 100 | 35 | 4 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | 2.51 | 3.67 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 2 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.43 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 84 | 38 | 10 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 97 | 412 | 93 | 41 | 10 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.06 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 109 | 45 | 13 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 130 | 49 | 15 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.10 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | DET | 26 | 26 | 146 | 614 | 145 | 53 | 16 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.05 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 152 | 644 | 153 | 55 | 17 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.03 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 155 | 656 | 156 | 56 | 18 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.04 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 155 | 655 | 155 | 57 | 18 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 151 | 56 | 18 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +2.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | DET | 27 | 27 | 147 | 621 | 145 | 55 | 18 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +1.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | DET | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 139 | 54 | 17 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | DET | 25 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 132 | 52 | 17 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 124 | 51 | 17 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 116 | 49 | 17 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 117 | 492 | 107 | 48 | 16 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 18 | 97 | 405 | 84 | 44 | 6 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 2.79 | 3.53 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 37 | 200 | 838 | 174 | 91 | 12 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 2.79 | 3.53 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Elissalt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.11 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 390 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 96 |
| Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 93 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 93 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 93 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 91 |
| Cory Lewis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 91 |
| Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 91 |
| Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 91 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 91 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 90 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 90 |
| Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 90 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 17.0% | 302 | +0.08 | 3.66 | 405 | 90 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .335 | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.37 | 3.55 | 357 | 90 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.40 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 72 | +0.50 | 3.90 | 193 | 89 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 89 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 89 |
| Jharel Cotton R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.27 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.73 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 315 | +1.46 | 3.20 | 560 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.2 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.2 | $20M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.2 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +2.0 | $20M | +$16M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.9 | $19M | +$13M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.7 | $18M | +$9M |
| Totals | $21M | $118M | +$97M | ||