Lucas Elissalt

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#427ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	22	16	90	2.51	2.62	26.9%	9.4%	—	K 20.1% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.68
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	21	93	3.98	3.45	29.4%	9.1%	—	K 22.9% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	—	—	0	4.62	4.62	22.2%	10.5%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBDET	4	4	22	4.43	4.38	22.7%	9.7%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBDET	6	6	35	4.34	4.29	23.1%	9.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 74%

CompsNoah Denoyer (age 23) · Pat Gallagher (age 23) · Cody Laweryson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%22.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.6%	2.51	3.68	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.6%	2.51	3.68	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	26.9%	9.4%	17.5%	1.1%	2.51	2.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	93	395	116	36	12	91%	4.0	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	3.8%	3.98	4.55	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	93	395	116	36	12	91%	4.0	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	3.8%	3.98	4.55	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	93	395	116	36	12	91%	4.0	29.4%	9.1%	20.3%	3.0%	3.98	3.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	73	309	70	30	9	100%	5.6	22.7%	9.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.50	4.45	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	69	291	67	27	9	100%	5.7	23.1%	9.2%	13.8%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	68	288	67	26	9	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	4.33	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	66	280	65	26	9	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.1%	14.0%	3.1%	4.36	4.36	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	63	267	61	25	8	100%	5.7	23.0%	9.3%	13.8%	3.2%	4.41	4.45	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	273	68	24	9	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	3.3%	4.35	4.31	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	58	247	60	22	9	100%	5.8	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	3.5%	4.43	4.49	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	52	218	52	20	8	100%	5.7	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.7%	4.59	4.69	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	45	189	45	18	8	100%	6.4	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	4.0%	4.79	4.92	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	22	93	21	9	3	100%	5.5	22.7%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	35	148	34	14	4	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.2%	13.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.29	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	44	17	5	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.26	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	49	207	48	19	6	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	50	211	49	20	6	100%	6.2	23.0%	9.3%	13.8%	3.0%	4.34	4.38	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	53	224	55	20	7	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	3.2%	4.27	4.23	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	50	211	52	19	7	100%	6.2	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	3.4%	4.35	4.41	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	46	18	7	100%	5.6	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	40	17	6	100%	5.7	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.8%	4.70	4.83	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	390	1646	389	152	53	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.38	4.02	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	78	27	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.38	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		45	37	182	767	165	82	21	82%	4.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.9%	2.7%	3.26	4.13	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	41	200	841	181	90	23	82%	4.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.9%	2.7%	3.26	4.13	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 75 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.63 (+1.12)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.16%	—	×0.770	21.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.39%	—	×1.150	10.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.64%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 18 IPFIP 3.20 → 4.23 (+1.03)K% 33.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.72%	—	×0.810	27.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.14%	—	×1.100	8.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 65 IPFIP 2.44 → 3.66 (+1.22)K% 28.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.84%	—	×0.740	21.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.49%	—	×1.180	8.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷0.864	×1.300	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 24 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.76 (+0.70)K% 21.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.90%	—	×0.770	16.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.150	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.850	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Elissalt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.38	23.0%	13.7%	210	-0.24	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	89
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	87
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	87
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	87
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	86
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	85
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	84
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	84
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	84
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	84
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	83
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	62	23.4%	9.4%	1.26	4.47
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*