Lucas Elissalt — OGILVIE

Lucas Elissalt P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%19.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP63

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3050

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.9%	2.51	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	22	16	90	372	100	35	4	73%	4.1	26.9%	9.4%	17.5%	1.1%	2.51	2.62	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	15	13	60	255	71	27	8	87%	4.0	21.4%	12.2%	9.3%	3.9%	4.07	4.98	-0.3
ROS	22	MLB	DET	12	12	63	265	53	29	7	100%	5.2	19.8%	11.0%	8.8%	2.7%	4.71	4.71	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	11.0%	8.8%	2.6%	4.65	4.65	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	DET	—	—	122	520	124	56	15	—	—	23.8%	10.8%	12.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.84	+0.8
2026 FULL	22	MLB	DET	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	19.8%	11.0%	8.8%	2.6%	4.65	4.27	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	DET	12	12	65	275	58	28	7	100%	5.4	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	2.7%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2028	24	MLB	DET	12	12	67	282	61	27	8	100%	5.6	21.8%	9.6%	12.2%	2.7%	4.42	4.34	+0.3
2029	25	MLB	DET	12	12	68	285	64	26	8	100%	5.6	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	2.7%	4.32	4.26	+0.4
2030	26	MLB	DET	11	11	68	285	64	26	8	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.7%	4.27	4.24	+0.4
2031	27	MLB	DET	11	11	67	281	63	26	8	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	2.8%	4.27	4.28	+0.3
2032	28	MLB	DET	11	11	65	273	61	26	8	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.4%	12.9%	2.9%	4.32	4.36	+0.2
2033	29	MLB	DET	10	10	62	261	58	25	8	100%	6.2	22.1%	9.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.49	+0.1
2034	30	MLB	DET	10	10	58	245	53	24	8	100%	5.8	21.8%	9.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.67	-0.1
2035	31	MLB	DET	9	9	54	228	49	24	8	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	3.4%	4.75	4.87	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	DET	6	6	32	135	28	14	4	100%	5.3	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	2.6%	4.50	4.42	+0.0
2028	24	MLB	DET	8	8	47	198	43	19	5	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.6%	12.2%	2.6%	4.36	4.28	+0.2
2029	25	MLB	DET	9	9	55	232	52	21	6	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	2.6%	4.26	4.20	+0.2
2030	26	MLB	DET	10	10	59	249	56	23	6	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.6%	4.21	4.18	+0.3
2031	27	MLB	DET	10	10	60	253	57	23	7	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	2.7%	4.21	4.22	+0.2
2032	28	MLB	DET	10	10	60	253	57	24	7	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.25	4.29	+0.2
2033	29	MLB	DET	10	10	57	241	53	23	7	100%	5.7	22.1%	9.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.35	4.42	+0.1
2034	30	MLB	DET	9	9	54	228	50	23	7	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.59	-0.0
2035	31	MLB	DET	8	8	51	215	46	22	7	100%	6.4	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	3.3%	4.67	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			81	81	476	2010	443	193	56	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	2.8%	4.35	3.99	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	186	81	24	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	2.8%	4.35	3.99	+3.3
Career	—			37	29	149	627	129	72	17	78%	4.0	20.6%	11.5%	9.2%	2.7%	3.13	4.31	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			50	39	200	840	173	96	23	78%	4.0	20.6%	11.5%	9.2%	2.7%	3.13	4.31	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Elissalt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.8%	11.0%	2.7%	—	4.36	21.7%	12.1%	200	-0.35	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	91
Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	89
TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.310	5.17	21.9%	14.5%	174	+1.21	3.96	245	89
Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	88
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	88
Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP-	4.22	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	.293	5.23	15.4%	6.7%	157	+1.01	3.46	246	87
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	87
Jeremy Lee R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	16.8%	11.5%	1.7%	.318	5.28	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.22	4.06	125	86
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	86
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	85
Michael Ross R 2027 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP-	5.05	16.3%	9.9%	3.8%	.275	5.83	12.5%	3.6%	64	+0.78	5.05	146	85
Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	85
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP-	4.35	19.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.335	3.97	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.38	3.53	357	85
Derek True R 2027 · 4.76 FIP	23	SP-	4.76	18.5%	10.5%	3.5%	.333	4.67	17.6%	5.9%	73	-0.09	4.50	170	85
Nick Dean R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP-	4.00	17.5%	8.1%	2.5%	.275	3.50	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.50	2.73	202	85
Miguel Almonte R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP-	3.94	18.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.300	4.40	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.46	3.02	247	84
Cameron Foster R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	84
Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	19.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.257	4.28	11.0%	3.6%	131	-0.16	3.95	229	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	64	21.8%	9.7%	1.11	4.45
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75