Owen Carey — OGILVIE

Owen CareyOF Rome Emperors

Age 20 L/L 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION182 act + 138 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .270 / .328

PA138

HR2

K%24

BB%5

BABIP277

ISO109

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	525	482	101	21	1	2	25	120	14	17	10	210	269	270	538	60	273	23	5	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	525	469	121	25	2	4	38	82	14	17	10	258	332	345	677	87	303	16	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A+	ATL	—	182	170	33	7	1	5	10	50	2	4	0	194	247	335	583	141	243	27	5	248	48	-11	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
YTD	20	A+	ATL	—	182	165	41	10	1	6	15	37	2	4	0	248	319	430	749	182	287	20	8	333	113	+3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.8
ROS	20	A+	ATL	0%	138	128	28	6	1	2	7	33	2	3	1	219	270	328	598	109	270	24	5	259	57	-7	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	ATL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						270	0	0	246	47	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	20	A+	ATL	—	183	171	33	7	1	5	10	50	2	4	0	193	246	333	579	140	241	27	5	248	48	-11	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.6
TOT	20	A+	ATL	—	320	298	61	13	2	7	17	83	4	7	1	205	257	332	589	128	258	26	5	253	52	-18	+1	-0	-2	+9	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	ATL	25%	580	533	117	25	2	10	32	134	10	11	4	220	277	330	607	111	272	23	6	274	68	-21	+1	-0	-3	+16	-0.8
2028	22	MLB	ATL	38%	597	547	124	26	2	13	35	135	10	12	4	227	285	353	638	126	275	23	6	285	77	-16	+1	-0	-4	+17	-0.2
2029	23	MLB	ATL	45%	615	562	129	26	3	14	38	137	10	13	5	230	290	361	651	132	276	22	6	292	82	-13	+1	-0	-4	+17	0.2
2030	24	MLB	ATL	48%	627	572	133	27	3	15	40	138	10	13	5	233	294	369	663	136	278	22	6	296	85	-11	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.4
2031	25	MLB	ATL	50%	634	577	135	27	3	16	41	139	11	13	5	234	297	374	672	140	278	22	6	298	86	-10	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.5
2032	26	MLB	ATL	51%	639	582	136	28	3	16	41	140	11	14	5	234	297	375	671	141	277	22	6	299	87	-10	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.5
2033	27	MLB	ATL	50%	637	579	135	27	3	16	42	140	11	14	5	233	297	373	671	140	277	22	7	299	87	-10	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.5
2034	28	MLB	ATL	50%	631	574	133	27	2	16	42	139	10	13	5	232	296	369	665	138	277	22	7	298	86	-10	+1	-1	-4	+18	0.4
2035	29	MLB	ATL	49%	621	564	129	26	2	15	42	138	10	13	5	229	294	362	656	133	276	22	7	296	84	-11	+1	-2	-4	+18	0.2
2027	21	MLB	ATL	25%	146	135	30	6	1	3	8	34	2	3	1	222	276	348	624	126	272	23	5	262	59	-7	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.3
2028	22	MLB	ATL	38%	229	209	48	10	1	5	14	52	4	5	2	230	291	359	650	129	275	23	6	273	67	-9	+0	-0	-1	+6	-0.3
2029	23	MLB	ATL	45%	280	256	59	12	1	7	17	62	5	6	2	230	291	367	659	137	276	22	6	280	72	-9	+0	-0	-2	+8	-0.2
2030	24	MLB	ATL	48%	302	275	63	13	1	7	19	66	5	6	2	229	291	360	651	131	278	22	6	284	75	-8	+0	-0	-2	+9	-0.1
2031	25	MLB	ATL	50%	315	287	67	14	1	8	20	69	5	7	2	233	295	373	668	139	278	22	6	286	77	-8	+1	-0	-2	+9	-0.1
2032	26	MLB	ATL	51%	323	294	68	14	1	8	21	71	5	7	3	231	294	367	661	136	277	22	7	286	77	-8	+0	-0	-2	+9	-0.1
2033	27	MLB	ATL	50%	319	290	68	14	1	8	21	70	5	7	3	234	297	372	670	138	277	22	7	286	77	-8	+0	-0	-2	+9	-0.1
2034	28	MLB	ATL	50%	314	285	66	13	1	8	21	69	5	7	2	232	296	368	664	137	277	22	7	285	77	-8	+1	-0	-2	+9	-0.1
2035	29	MLB	ATL	49%	301	273	63	13	1	7	20	67	5	6	2	231	295	363	658	132	276	22	7	284	75	-8	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2530	2305	532	109	9	61	161	560	41	54	19	231	293	365	658	134	277	22	6	282	74	-74	+3	-2	-15	+72	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	137	28	2	16	41	144	11	14	5	231	293	367	660	135	278	22	6	282	74	-19	+1	-0	-4	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	6244	5700	1300	266	25	135	385	1393	109	136	54	228	290	355	644	126	277	22	6	288	79	-151	+6	-3	-37	+177	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	136	28	3	14	40	145	11	14	6	229	290	358	647	128	279	22	6	288	79	-16	+0	-0	-4	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	525	469	121	25	2	4	38	82	14	17	10	258	332	345	677	87	303	16	7	308	94	-3	-1	—	—	+15	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,529	61	52	232	291	367	-15	+7	1.1	1.3
	/162	664	16	14	232	291	367	-4.0	+1.8	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Carey (OGILVIE)	20	30→50	35→45	55	50	205/257/332	128	258	7	7	26%	5%	52	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	56	-1.3	245/295/352	107	322	5	15	24%	6%	81	+0.4	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2019 · A	20	46→51	36→45	50→60	46	216/275/284	68	263	2	13	18%	6%	55	-1.4	225/285/316	91	315	3	20	27%	7%	67	-0.5	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Luis Liberato 2016 · A	20	37→47	37→55	53→50	41	180/242/256	76	271	4	13	33%	7%	33	-2.9	213/262/339	126	310	10	6	32%	6%	63	-0.8	237/280/389	152	300	18	5	27%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Ramón Flores 2012 · A	20	45→55	39→45	50	45	218/272/307	89	279	7	8	24%	6%	59	-1.1	229/282/328	99	288	7	10	22%	7%	69	-0.4	251/324/348	97	299	8	8	18%	9%	88	+0.6
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	43→52	39→50	52→50	43	208/260/292	85	279	6	14	27%	6%	50	-1.7	222/280/348	126	317	11	8	31%	7%	74	-0.1	218/277/350	132	309	11	7	31%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	49→55	42	207/263/283	75	275	4	12	25%	6%	50	-1.8	229/295/302	73	307	3	16	24%	7%	69	-0.4	262/328/337	75	341	2	29	22%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Thomas Milone 2015 · A	20	41→44	36→45	51→55	38	194/246/266	72	293	3	10	33%	6%	37	-2.6	192/245/252	60	278	3	13	30%	6%	33	-2.9	243/298/369	125	340	8	17	29%	6%	82	+0.3
✕José Tena 2021 · A	20	46→55	37→50	50→55	37	216/253/290	74	299	3	9	28%	4%	46	-2.0	220/260/338	118	326	10	9	34%	5%	63	-0.9	246/301/380	134	335	13	21	29%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Conner Capel 2017 · A	20	40→46	36→50	52→55	44	190/237/258	67	240	2	13	21%	5%	31	-3.0	210/264/332	122	282	12	11	28%	6%	63	-0.9	213/283/334	121	267	13	19	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Marco Hernández 2013 · A	20	44→54	38→45	47→50	40	210/246/293	83	267	5	10	23%	4%	44	-2.1	219/246/301	82	290	6	12	26%	3%	46	-2.0	271/296/380	110	350	8	6	24%	3%	85	+0.4
✕Daryl Jones 2007 · A	20	41→51	41→45	49→50	41	200/266/295	96	265	8	10	27%	5%	55	-1.4	221/285/316	95	297	8	14	26%	6%	68	-0.5	235/302/342	107	308	9	14	25%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Danny Ortiz 2010 · A	20	43→48	39→60	53→45	41	209/255/300	91	266	5	7	23%	4%	50	-1.7	199/239/319	120	262	11	4	28%	5%	49	-1.8	226/264/410	184	264	25	2	25%	4%	84	+0.5
✕Leody Taveras 2019 · A	20	45→53	37→50	50→55	43	215/256/289	74	273	4	12	23%	5%	47	-1.9	218/268/322	104	296	9	19	28%	6%	62	-0.9	239/291/390	151	301	16	19	25%	6%	88	+0.8
✕Jakob Dalfonso 2010 · A	20	45	35→50	49→45	43	210/258/270	60	265	2	10	21%	5%	43	-2.2	226/277/321	95	277	9	8	21%	4%	66	-0.6	225/274/327	103	274	12	7	22%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Luis Barrera 2016 · A	20	40→50	36→45	50	42	194/247/262	68	268	4	6	28%	6%	37	-2.7	217/256/305	88	299	4	11	27%	5%	51	-1.7	237/281/345	108	308	5	17	24%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2011 · A	21	43→53	38→45	52→55	41	206/262/282	77	274	6	13	26%	6%	49	-1.8	235/289/327	92	315	6	16	26%	6%	72	-0.2	253/291/359	107	338	9	26	27%	4%	78	+0.2
✕Ismael Munguia 2019 · A	20	48→56	37→45	50→55	45	225/264/305	80	266	3	7	17%	5%	54	-1.4	246/283/331	85	282	4	10	14%	4%	69	-0.4	262/318/369	107	287	11	20	13%	5%	92	+0.7
✕Jordan Schafer 2007 · A	20	39→49	41→50	50→65	37	194/233/299	104	272	8	12	31%	5%	40	-2.4	232/286/371	139	325	12	13	30%	7%	82	+0.5	238/300/385	147	332	12	14	30%	8%	87	+0.5
●Jorbit Vivas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	49→50	46	217/288/299	82	276	3	11	21%	7%	66	-0.6	248/321/370	122	279	11	7	15%	7%	98	+1.6	245/326/365	120	273	11	9	14%	7%	96	+1.4
✕Jose Reyes 2018 · A	19	45	36→45	55	44	211/255/282	71	259	2	13	19%	5%	45	-2.1	226/279/325	99	265	7	15	17%	6%	66	-0.6	248/303/371	123	270	10	25	12%	7%	85	+0.3