Andrew Toles
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+3 orgs | 349 | .331/.376/.511 | 7 | 23 | 111 | — | .292/.327/.444 | |
| 2016 | 24 | MLBLAD | 115 | .314/.368/.505 | 3 | 1 | 142 | 0.7 | ||
| 2017 | 25 | MLBLAD | 102 | .271/.314/.458 | 5 | 0 | 118 | 0.3 | ||
| 2018 | 26 | AAAOklahoma City… | 275 | .306/.347/.461 | 7 | 3 | 82 | — | .260/.292/.374 | |
| 2018 | 26 | MLBLAD | 32 | .233/.281/.300 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 0.0 | ||
| 2019 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 20 | ROK | Princeton Rays | — | 214 | 199 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 281 | 329 | 482 | 811 | 201 | 312 | 17 | 6 | 354 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 552 | 519 | 169 | 35 | 16 | 2 | 22 | 105 | 7 | 62 | 17 | 326 | 361 | 466 | 828 | 141 | 402 | 19 | 4 | 363 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 218 | 199 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 261 | 307 | 337 | 643 | 75 | 300 | 14 | 6 | 284 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 25 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 292 | 320 | 375 | 695 | 83 | 389 | 24 | 0 | 311 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 115 | 105 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 314 | 368 | 505 | 873 | 190 | 385 | 22 | 7 | 381 | 142 | +6 | -0 | +4 | -5 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 59 | 56 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 321 | 345 | 518 | 863 | 196 | 340 | 14 | 3 | 372 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 190 | 175 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 314 | 365 | 514 | 879 | 200 | 355 | 16 | 6 | 384 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 100 | 92 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 370 | 414 | 500 | 914 | 130 | 430 | 13 | 6 | 401 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 102 | 96 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 314 | 458 | 772 | 188 | 280 | 16 | 5 | 341 | 118 | +2 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 32 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 67 | 318 | 25 | 6 | 265 | 56 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 275 | 258 | 79 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 306 | 347 | 461 | 808 | 155 | 367 | 20 | 5 | 357 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 249 | 231 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 286 | 335 | 459 | 794 | 173 | 331 | 20 | 6 | 350 | 123 | +7 | -0 | +4 | -5 | +5 | 1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 214 | 205 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 210 | 239 | 346 | 586 | 137 | 255 | 24 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 552 | 528 | 144 | 27 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 149 | 7 | 62 | 17 | 273 | 299 | 383 | 682 | 110 | 372 | 27 | 2 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 218 | 202 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 248 | 283 | 322 | 605 | 74 | 297 | 21 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 25 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 208 | 240 | 292 | 532 | 83 | 305 | 36 | 0 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 115 | 107 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 318 | 360 | 514 | 874 | 196 | 385 | 22 | 5 | 379 | 142 | +6 | -0 | +4 | -5 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 59 | 57 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 281 | 293 | 456 | 749 | 175 | 323 | 19 | 2 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 190 | 178 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 287 | 328 | 461 | 789 | 174 | 336 | 19 | 5 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 100 | 94 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 309 | 343 | 404 | 748 | 96 | 376 | 18 | 4 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 102 | 96 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 314 | 458 | 772 | 188 | 280 | 16 | 5 | 342 | 118 | +2 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 32 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 250 | 290 | 540 | 65 | 318 | 25 | 3 | 250 | 56 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 275 | 262 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 75 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 260 | 292 | 374 | 666 | 115 | 339 | 27 | 3 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 214 | 205 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 210 | 239 | 346 | 586 | 137 | 253 | 24 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK RAW | Princeton Rays | — | 214 | 199 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 281 | 329 | 482 | 811 | 201 | 312 | 17 | 6 | 354 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 552 | 528 | 144 | 27 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 149 | 7 | 62 | 17 | 273 | 299 | 383 | 682 | 110 | 375 | 27 | 2 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 552 | 519 | 169 | 35 | 16 | 2 | 22 | 105 | 7 | 62 | 17 | 326 | 361 | 466 | 828 | 141 | 402 | 19 | 4 | 363 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 226 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 54 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 239 | 274 | 305 | 580 | 66 | 305 | 22 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 243 | 223 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 37 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 265 | 308 | 341 | 649 | 76 | 309 | 15 | 5 | 287 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 464 | 435 | 130 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 90 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 299 | 337 | 460 | 797 | 161 | 359 | 19 | 5 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 464 | 428 | 140 | 36 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 76 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 327 | 374 | 509 | 883 | 182 | 377 | 16 | 6 | 385 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 102 | 96 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 314 | 458 | 772 | 188 | 280 | 16 | 5 | 342 | 118 | +2 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB RAW | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 102 | 96 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 314 | 458 | 772 | 188 | 280 | 16 | 5 | 341 | 118 | +2 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 293 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 83 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 288 | 365 | 653 | 109 | 340 | 27 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 307 | 288 | 86 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 64 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 299 | 340 | 444 | 784 | 146 | 362 | 21 | 5 | 347 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 214 | 204 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 211 | 239 | 348 | 587 | 137 | 255 | 24 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 552 | 527 | 144 | 27 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 149 | 7 | 62 | 17 | 273 | 299 | 383 | 683 | 110 | 372 | 27 | 2 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 230 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 54 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 235 | 274 | 300 | 574 | 65 | 298 | 22 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 464 | 436 | 130 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 90 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 298 | 337 | 459 | 796 | 161 | 355 | 19 | 5 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Dodgers | — | 102 | 95 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 274 | 314 | 463 | 777 | 189 | 280 | 16 | 5 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 291 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 83 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 258 | 288 | 368 | 655 | 110 | 337 | 27 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 249 | 231 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 286 | 335 | 459 | 794 | 173 | 331 | 20 | 6 | 350 | 89 | +7 | -0 | +4 | -5 | +5 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 173 | 37 | 3 | 21 | 39 | 128 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 287 | 335 | 463 | 798 | 176 | 333 | 20 | 6 | 350 | 89 | +18 | -1 | +10 | -13 | +14 | 2.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1882 | 1783 | 472 | 98 | 24 | 25 | 64 | 443 | 19 | 128 | 47 | 265 | 297 | 389 | 686 | 124 | 337 | 24 | 3 | 299 | 89 | +7 | -0 | +4 | -5 | +5 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 616 | 163 | 34 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 153 | 7 | 44 | 16 | 265 | 298 | 390 | 688 | 125 | 336 | 24 | 3 | 299 | 89 | +18 | -1 | +10 | -13 | +14 | 2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 275 PAwOBA .347 → .289 (−58)K% 20.4% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.36% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.36% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 3.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.73% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | ×1.042 | ×1.018 | 25.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷1.029 | ×0.810 | ×1.042 | ×1.018 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | ×1.042 | ×1.018 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.47% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .347 → .289; ISO .155 → .117; BABIP .367 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AATulsa Drillers · 190 PAwOBA .375 → .336 (−40)K% 15.8% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.76% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 21.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.66% | ÷0.926 | ×0.840 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 8.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.07% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 2.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.74% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 99, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .375 → .336; ISO .200 → .176; BABIP .355 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 100 PAwOBA .391 → .324 (−67)K% 13.0% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.00% | ÷0.979 | ×1.340 | — | — | 17.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.38% | ÷1.043 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 26.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.13% | ÷0.938 | ×0.820 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 8.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.142 | ×0.760 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 88, 3B 128, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .391 → .324; ISO .130 → .104; BABIP .430 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 59 PAwOBA .367 → .330 (−37)K% 13.6% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.56% | ÷0.972 | ×1.290 | — | — | 17.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.39% | ÷1.059 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 2.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.017 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 22.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.42% | ÷0.975 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 9.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.104 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.947 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 3.60% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 121, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .367 → .330; ISO .196 → .170; BABIP .340 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 218 PAwOBA .280 → .262 (−19)K% 14.2% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.22% | ÷0.977 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.50% | ÷0.985 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 23.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 6.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.109 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.899 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.59% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 122, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .280 → .262; ISO .075 → .073; BABIP .300 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Rays · 25 PAwOBA .303 → .205 (−97)K% 24.0% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 26.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 3.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .205; ISO .083 → .051; BABIP .389 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 552 PAwOBA .355 → .296 (−59)K% 19.0% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.02% | ÷0.958 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.80% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.02% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 26.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.45% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 7.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.86% | ÷0.974 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 3.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.044 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.38% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 95, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .355 → .296; ISO .141 → .116; BABIP .402 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKPrinceton Rays · 214 PAwOBA .341 → .260 (−81)K% 16.8% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 2.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 17.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 3.42% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .341 → .260; ISO .201 → .149; BABIP .312 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).