Ezequiel Pagan — OGILVIE

Ezequiel PaganOF Tulsa Drillers

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 163 lbs AA HR +15%K -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .268 / .330

PA242

HR5

K%23

BB%5

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

40→40

SPD

45→45

EYE

34↘25

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.3peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-7M		$-26M	-$19M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 1	108	97	16	2	1	0	9	39	0	3	5	.165	.236	.206	.442	.041	.267	36	8	.198	10	-11	-1	+0	-1	+3	-1.0
2019	19	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	241	220	45	4	0	1	13	65	4	19	8	.205	.262	.236	.498	.032	.284	27	5	.218	25	-20	+1	+0	-1	+7	-1.5
2021	21	A	2 teams	277	255	58	10	6	5	8	66	9	5	1	.227	.276	.373	.648	.145	.280	24	3	.278	71	-9	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2022	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	438	400	103	13	4	10	24	82	7	13	4	.258	.311	.385	.696	.128	.299	19	5	.300	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.5
2023	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	429	390	98	14	1	3	26	86	10	12	10	.251	.315	.315	.630	.064	.312	20	6	.284	76	-12	-2	+0	-3	+12	-0.4
2024	24	AA	3 teams	382	355	60	8	1	11	13	96	9	12	2	.169	.218	.290	.508	.121	.194	25	3	.221	27	-31	+2	+0	-2	+11	-2.2
2025	25	AA	2 teams	449	421	90	16	5	8	14	103	7	6	6	.214	.251	.333	.584	.119	.261	23	3	.251	50	-25	-1	+0	-3	+13	-1.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	LAD	242	225	49	8	1	5	11	55	4	4	2	.218	.267	.329	.596	.111	.269	23	5	.270	65	-10	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 11%	LAD	258	239	52	9	1	5	13	59	4	5	2	.218	.270	.326	.596	.109	.271	23	5	.276	69	-9	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.3
2028	28	MLB 22%	LAD	310	285	65	11	2	7	17	71	5	5	3	.228	.283	.354	.638	.126	.272	23	5	.278	71	-10	-0	-1	-2	+9	-0.4
2029	29	MLB 34%	LAD	336	309	69	12	2	7	19	78	5	5	3	.223	.279	.343	.622	.120	.272	23	6	.278	71	-11	-0	-1	-2	+10	-0.5
2030	30	MLB 44%	LAD	353	324	71	12	2	7	21	83	5	4	2	.219	.277	.333	.610	.114	.272	24	6	.276	70	-12	+0	-2	-2	+10	-0.6
2031	31	MLB 53%	LAD	351	323	71	12	2	7	20	84	5	3	2	.220	.276	.334	.610	.115	.270	24	6	.273	67	-13	-0	-3	-2	+10	-0.8
2032	32	MLB 71%	LAD	340	312	68	12	2	6	20	83	5	1	1	.218	.276	.327	.603	.109	.269	24	6	.268	63	-14	-0	-4	-2	+10	-1.0
2033	33	MLB 88%	LAD	315	290	61	10	1	6	18	79	4	0	1	.210	.266	.314	.580	.103	.267	25	6	.263	59	-15	-0	-4	-2	+9	-1.2
2034	34	MLB	LAD	275	253	53	9	1	5	16	71	4	0	0	.209	.267	.312	.580	.103	.266	26	6	.256	54	-14	+0	-5	-2	+8	-1.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5104	4698	1029	162	32	93	262	1200	87	97	52	.219	.273	.327	.600	.107	.272	24	5	.265	61	-223	-1	-20	-31	+145	-13.2
/ 162G	—			650	598	131	21	4	12	33	153	11	12	7	.219	.272	.328	.600	.109	.272	24	5	.265	61	-28	-0	-2	-4	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 1	108	92	20	3	1	0	14	27	0	3	5	.217	.321	.272	.592	.054	.299	25	13	.275	69	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2019	19	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	241	212	60	6	0	1	21	45	4	19	8	.283	.359	.325	.684	.042	.353	19	9	.313	97	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2021	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	162	143	35	6	2	1	10	26	6	2	1	.245	.321	.336	.656	.091	.286	16	6	.296	85	-3	+0	—	—	+5	0.2
2021	21	ROK	ACL Cubs	115	107	36	6	5	6	3	20	3	3	0	.336	.372	.654	1.026	.318	.361	17	3	.433	189	+12	+1	—	—	+3	1.6
2022	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	438	384	112	15	5	11	40	57	7	13	4	.292	.369	.443	.812	.151	.317	13	9	.357	132	+16	+1	—	—	+12	3.0
2023	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	429	376	113	20	2	5	39	66	10	12	10	.301	.380	.404	.785	.104	.351	15	9	.354	129	+14	-2	—	—	+12	2.5
2024	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	233	217	40	6	1	6	8	49	5	7	0	.184	.230	.304	.535	.120	.206	21	3	.238	40	-16	+1	—	—	+7	-0.8
2024	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	55	47	13	2	0	2	6	5	2	3	0	.277	.382	.447	.829	.170	.275	9	11	.373	144	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	24	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	94	83	21	9	0	3	7	17	2	2	2	.253	.326	.470	.796	.217	.277	18	7	.344	121	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	306	281	70	14	4	6	15	53	5	5	6	.249	.298	.391	.689	.142	.284	17	5	.303	90	-3	-1	—	—	+9	0.4
2025	25	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	143	121	30	1	2	1	15	24	2	1	0	.248	.336	.314	.650	.066	.299	17	10	.294	83	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ezequiel Pagan (OGILVIE)	26	50	40	45	25	.219/.268/.330	.111	.269	5	4	23%	5%	65	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blake Rutherford 2023 · AAA	26	44→52	43→45	46→50	36	.220/.250/.332	.112	.285	10	8	27%	3%	56	-1.3	.246/.286/.384	.138	.309	14	10	24%	5%	85	+0.7	.276/.322/.439	.163	.339	16	10	23%	5%	112	+1.5
✕Cole Sturgeon 2018 · AA	26	48→49	39→45	46→50	41	.229/.266/.316	.087	.284	6	10	22%	4%	58	-1.2	.236/.280/.341	.105	.305	10	11	25%	5%	72	-0.2	.227/.275/.329	.102	.285	11	12	24%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Nick Banks 2021 · AA	26	45	43→45	48→45	38	.223/.263/.334	.111	.295	10	8	28%	4%	63	-0.9	.215/.266/.332	.117	.321	12	5	35%	6%	64	-0.8	.208/.261/.325	.117	.315	13	2	36%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Steele Walker 2022 · AAA	26	42→46	45	47→50	43	.214/.266/.338	.124	.259	13	10	23%	6%	66	-0.6	.210/.265/.331	.121	.256	14	10	23%	6%	63	-0.8	.198/.257/.310	.112	.238	13	9	23%	6%	51	-0.6
✕Mitch Longo 2021 · AA	26	45	42→45	51→50	41	.218/.268/.325	.106	.285	9	13	26%	6%	62	-0.9	.227/.274/.372	.145	.296	16	18	28%	5%	78	+0.2	.222/.267/.379	.157	.284	19	22	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Adam Melker 2014 · AA	26	47	41→40	44→50	42	.226/.276/.321	.095	.296	9	9	26%	6%	65	-0.7	.234/.279/.332	.098	.292	10	13	23%	5%	69	-0.4	.245/.287/.319	.074	.294	9	18	20%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Luis González 2021 · AA	25	45→50	44→45	46→50	44	.224/.275/.340	.116	.281	11	11	24%	6%	69	-0.4	.227/.297/.343	.116	.291	12	18	25%	8%	80	+0.4	.230/.308/.344	.114	.294	12	22	25%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Sebastián Elizalde 2018 · AAA	26	48→53	40→45	49→45	41	.232/.268/.322	.090	.277	8	6	20%	4%	61	-1.0	.234/.276/.331	.097	.271	9	9	17%	5%	67	-0.5	.217/.276/.282	.065	.252	4	22	15%	7%	53	-0.3
✕Alex Fernandez 2007 · AAA	26	49	42→45	48→45	42	.238/.268/.336	.099	.280	10	10	19%	4%	65	-0.7	.215/.249/.306	.091	.256	8	8	19%	4%	49	-1.8	.197/.224/.263	.066	.231	5	2	17%	3%	24	-1.3
✕Francisco Ferreiro 2019 · AAA	25	46→53	41→40	46→45	42	.222/.264/.323	.101	.277	7	11	22%	5%	60	-1.0	.239/.280/.334	.095	.308	6	8	23%	5%	69	-0.4	.250/.289/.337	.087	.323	4	5	23%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Beau Amaral 2017 · AAA	26	47→52	40	46→55	41	.227/.273/.318	.092	.289	7	11	24%	5%	63	-0.9	.214/.263/.293	.079	.281	6	10	25%	5%	52	-1.6	.206/.255/.277	.071	.270	5	10	25%	5%	43	-1.0
✕Herlis Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	25	41→50	41→45	46→50	40	.204/.252/.302	.098	.260	9	11	25%	5%	50	-1.8	.220/.285/.340	.120	.295	11	12	28%	6%	75	-0.0	.220/.299/.355	.135	.298	13	13	29%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Aldrem Corredor 2022 · AA	26	45→52	43→45	45→40	40	.223/.268/.333	.110	.297	11	4	28%	6%	65	-0.7	.223/.284/.339	.116	.297	14	4	28%	8%	74	-0.1	.216/.284/.324	.108	.283	15	0	28%	8%	67	-0.4
✕Gary Harris 2006 · AA	26	51→53	40	43→50	40	.245/.276/.335	.090	.295	8	13	20%	4%	68	-0.5	.230/.266/.311	.081	.292	5	14	22%	4%	57	-1.2	.217/.250/.271	.054	.285	0	15	23%	4%	37	-1.1
✕Matt Pali 2007 · AA	26	43→46	43→40	46→45	42	.217/.263/.316	.100	.260	12	9	22%	5%	58	-1.2	.213/.261/.312	.099	.263	11	8	23%	5%	56	-1.3	.204/.254/.290	.085	.249	11	6	22%	4%	45	-1.2
✕Nathan Panther 2007 · AA	26	44→43	42→45	45	46	.215/.277/.319	.103	.272	9	8	24%	7%	65	-0.7	.226/.295/.355	.129	.281	12	7	23%	8%	82	+0.5	.229/.305/.375	.146	.276	15	6	22%	9%	88	+0.5
✕Bligh Madris 2022 · AAA	26	45→47	43→50	39→50	44	.224/.277/.337	.114	.282	11	5	24%	6%	69	-0.4	.218/.281/.358	.140	.285	15	10	28%	8%	77	+0.1	.202/.273/.357	.154	.262	18	14	29%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Drew Dosch 2018 · AAA	26	46→54	42→45	49→40	40	.225/.266/.334	.109	.296	8	5	26%	5%	64	-0.8	.229/.276/.341	.112	.327	10	5	31%	6%	70	-0.3	.228/.276/.327	.099	.339	9	1	34%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Orlando Martinez 2023 · AAA	25	43→44	45→50	44→45	38	.214/.258/.334	.120	.292	12	9	31%	5%	61	-1.0	.222/.274/.341	.119	.283	11	8	25%	6%	69	-0.4	.224/.282/.338	.114	.277	10	7	22%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Casey Stevenson 2014 · AAA	26	46	43→45	47→45	44	.226/.283/.332	.106	.276	11	7	22%	6%	71	-0.3	.212/.272/.305	.093	.260	8	8	21%	6%	59	-1.1	.179/.241/.237	.058	.217	3	5	18%	6%	30	-1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)