Ezequiel Pagan
OF Tulsa Drillers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+CHC | 429 | .301/.380/.404 | 5 | 12 | 78 | — | .251/.312/.315 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 382 | .213/.276/.363 | 11 | 12 | 54 | — | .172/.221/.285 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 449 | .249/.310/.368 | 7 | 6 | 65 | — | .213/.252/.324 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBLAD | 3 | .217/.257/.335 | 0 | 0 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBLAD | 43 | .217/.258/.334 | 1 | 1 | 67 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 1 | — | 108 | 92 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 217 | 321 | 272 | 592 | 54 | 299 | 25 | 13 | 275 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 241 | 212 | 60 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 283 | 359 | 325 | 684 | 42 | 353 | 19 | 9 | 313 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 162 | 143 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 321 | 336 | 656 | 91 | 286 | 16 | 6 | 296 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 115 | 107 | 36 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 336 | 372 | 654 | 1.026 | 318 | 361 | 17 | 3 | 433 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 438 | 384 | 112 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 40 | 57 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 292 | 369 | 443 | 812 | 151 | 317 | 13 | 9 | 357 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 429 | 376 | 113 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 66 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 301 | 380 | 404 | 785 | 104 | 351 | 15 | 9 | 354 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 233 | 217 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 184 | 230 | 304 | 535 | 120 | 206 | 21 | 3 | 238 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 55 | 47 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 277 | 382 | 447 | 829 | 170 | 275 | 9 | 11 | 373 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 94 | 83 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 326 | 470 | 796 | 217 | 277 | 18 | 7 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 306 | 281 | 70 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 249 | 298 | 391 | 689 | 142 | 284 | 17 | 5 | 303 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 143 | 121 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 248 | 336 | 314 | 650 | 66 | 299 | 17 | 10 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 1 | — | 108 | 97 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 165 | 236 | 206 | 442 | 41 | 256 | 36 | 8 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 241 | 220 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 65 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 205 | 262 | 236 | 498 | 32 | 273 | 27 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 162 | 146 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 277 | 295 | 571 | 82 | 264 | 23 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 115 | 108 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 231 | 265 | 435 | 701 | 204 | 270 | 25 | 2 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 438 | 398 | 101 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 79 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 254 | 311 | 374 | 685 | 121 | 288 | 18 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 429 | 391 | 98 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 87 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 251 | 312 | 315 | 627 | 64 | 310 | 20 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 233 | 219 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 61 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 155 | 196 | 256 | 451 | 100 | 177 | 26 | 3 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 55 | 49 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 245 | 327 | 408 | 735 | 163 | 240 | 11 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 306 | 287 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 66 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 213 | 252 | 324 | 576 | 111 | 252 | 22 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 1 | — | 108 | 97 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 165 | 236 | 206 | 442 | 41 | 267 | 36 | 8 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 1 | — | 108 | 92 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 217 | 321 | 272 | 592 | 54 | 299 | 25 | 13 | 275 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 241 | 220 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 65 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 205 | 262 | 236 | 498 | 32 | 284 | 27 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 241 | 212 | 60 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 283 | 359 | 325 | 684 | 42 | 353 | 19 | 9 | 313 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 254 | 56 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 272 | 354 | 626 | 134 | 271 | 24 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 277 | 250 | 71 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 284 | 342 | 472 | 814 | 188 | 317 | 17 | 5 | 353 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 438 | 398 | 101 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 79 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 254 | 311 | 374 | 685 | 121 | 294 | 18 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 438 | 384 | 112 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 40 | 57 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 292 | 369 | 443 | 812 | 151 | 317 | 13 | 9 | 357 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 429 | 391 | 98 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 87 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 251 | 312 | 315 | 627 | 64 | 312 | 20 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 429 | 376 | 113 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 66 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 301 | 380 | 404 | 785 | 104 | 351 | 15 | 9 | 354 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 355 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 90 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 169 | 218 | 282 | 499 | 113 | 192 | 24 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 382 | 347 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 71 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 213 | 276 | 363 | 639 | 150 | 233 | 19 | 5 | 284 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 421 | 90 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 214 | 251 | 325 | 577 | 112 | 259 | 22 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 449 | 402 | 100 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 77 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 249 | 310 | 368 | 678 | 119 | 289 | 17 | 7 | 300 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 1 | — | 108 | 98 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 163 | 236 | 204 | 440 | 41 | 256 | 36 | 8 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 241 | 222 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 65 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 203 | 262 | 234 | 496 | 32 | 273 | 27 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 257 | 56 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 272 | 350 | 622 | 132 | 266 | 24 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 438 | 402 | 101 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 79 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 251 | 311 | 371 | 682 | 119 | 288 | 18 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 429 | 391 | 98 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 87 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 251 | 312 | 315 | 627 | 64 | 310 | 20 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 357 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 90 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 168 | 218 | 280 | 498 | 112 | 189 | 24 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 425 | 90 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 212 | 251 | 322 | 573 | 111 | 252 | 22 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 357 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 90 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 168 | 218 | 280 | 498 | 112 | 189 | 24 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 425 | 90 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 212 | 251 | 322 | 573 | 111 | 252 | 22 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAD | 2% | 356 | 335 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 81 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 261 | 341 | 602 | 119 | 268 | 23 | 4 | 267 | 67 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAD | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 257 | 335 | 592 | 117 | 262 | 33 | 0 | 263 | 67 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAD | 27% | 159 | 150 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 262 | 339 | 601 | 118 | 269 | 23 | 4 | 268 | 67 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAD | 27% | 43 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 258 | 334 | 592 | 117 | 262 | 23 | 5 | 264 | 67 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 279 | 350 | 629 | 125 | 276 | 23 | 5 | 264 | 61 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 136 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 151 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 225 | 278 | 349 | 627 | 124 | 276 | 23 | 5 | 264 | 61 | -25 | +3 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2633 | 2428 | 530 | 78 | 19 | 41 | 120 | 593 | 50 | 76 | 38 | 218 | 269 | 317 | 586 | 98 | 269 | 23 | 5 | 258 | 61 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +7 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 131 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 146 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 219 | 269 | 317 | 587 | 98 | 269 | 22 | 5 | 258 | 61 | -25 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AATulsa Drillers · 306 PAwOBA .298 → .250 (−48)K% 17.3% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.32% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.90% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.18% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 18.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.14% | ÷1.014 | ×0.840 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.137 | ×0.940 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 127, K 97, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .298 → .250; ISO .142 → .115; BABIP .284 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 233 PAwOBA .235 → .196 (−38)K% 21.0% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.03% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.43% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 2.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.07% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 14.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.39% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .235 → .196; ISO .120 → .105; BABIP .206 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 55 PAwOBA .364 → .306 (−58)K% 9.1% → 11.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 11.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.64% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 19.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.14% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .306; ISO .170 → .147; BABIP .275 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 429 PAwOBA .346 → .283 (−63)K% 15.4% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 20.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.86% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.74% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 25.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .346 → .283; ISO .104 → .072; BABIP .351 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 438 PAwOBA .350 → .299 (−51)K% 13.0% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.01% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.90% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.77% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | — | 22.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.59% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | — | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×0.983 | — | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.36% | ÷0.942 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 114, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .350 → .299; ISO .151 → .128; BABIP .317 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 162 PAwOBA .294 → .252 (−42)K% 16.0% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.05% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.17% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.015 | 20.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.015 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×1.015 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.977 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .294 → .252; ISO .091 → .079; BABIP .286 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Cubs · 115 PAwOBA .427 → .302 (−125)K% 17.4% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.61% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 1.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.84% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | 17.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.75% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | 4.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 5.23% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 89, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .427 → .302; ISO .318 → .223; BABIP .361 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Cubs 2 · 241 PAwOBA .306 → .220 (−87)K% 18.7% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 24.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.47% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .306 → .220; ISO .042 → .029; BABIP .353 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .