Ezequiel Pagan — OGILVIE

Ezequiel PaganOF Tulsa Drillers

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 163 lbs AA HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 242 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .262 / .324

PA21

HR0

K%22

BB%4

ISO106

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 1	—	108	92	20	3	1	0	14	27	0	3	5	217	321	272	592	54	299	25	13	275	72	-4	-1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2019	19	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	—	241	212	60	6	0	1	21	45	4	19	8	283	359	325	684	42	353	19	9	313	98	-1	+1	—	—	+5	0.5
2021	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	162	143	35	6	2	1	10	26	6	2	1	245	321	336	656	91	286	16	6	296	86	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2021	21	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	115	107	36	6	5	6	3	20	3	3	0	336	372	654	1.026	318	361	17	3	433	179	+11	+1	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	438	384	112	15	5	11	40	57	7	13	4	292	369	443	812	151	317	13	9	357	128	+15	+1	—	—	+9	2.6
2023	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	429	376	113	20	2	5	39	66	10	12	10	301	380	404	785	104	351	15	9	354	125	+13	-2	—	—	+9	2.1
2024	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	233	217	40	6	1	6	8	49	5	7	0	184	230	304	535	120	206	21	3	238	47	-15	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2024	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	55	47	13	2	0	2	6	5	2	3	0	277	382	447	829	170	275	9	11	373	139	+3	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	24	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	94	83	21	9	0	3	7	17	2	2	2	253	326	470	796	217	277	18	7	344	119	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	306	281	70	14	4	6	15	53	5	5	6	249	298	391	689	142	284	17	5	303	91	-3	-1	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	25	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	143	121	30	1	2	1	15	24	2	1	0	248	336	314	650	66	299	17	10	294	85	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	—	108	97	16	2	1	0	9	39	0	3	5	165	236	206	442	41	250	36	8	198	20	-10	-1	—	—	+2	-1.0
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	—	241	220	45	4	0	1	13	65	4	19	8	205	262	236	498	32	271	27	5	218	34	-19	+1	—	—	+5	-1.3
2021	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	162	146	31	5	2	1	7	37	6	2	1	212	277	295	571	82	260	23	4	248	54	-9	+0	—	—	+4	-0.5
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	115	108	25	4	3	4	2	29	3	3	0	231	265	435	701	204	274	25	2	307	94	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	438	400	103	13	4	10	24	83	7	13	4	258	311	385	696	128	292	19	5	301	90	-5	+1	—	—	+9	0.5
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	429	391	96	14	1	3	25	92	10	12	10	246	308	309	617	64	309	21	6	279	75	-13	-2	—	—	+9	-0.5
2024	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	233	219	34	5	1	5	6	61	5	7	0	155	196	256	451	100	177	26	3	194	17	-23	+1	—	—	+5	-1.7
2024	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	55	49	12	2	0	2	4	7	2	3	0	245	327	408	735	163	242	13	7	309	95	-0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	306	287	63	12	3	5	10	66	5	5	6	220	258	334	593	115	257	22	3	253	57	-16	-1	—	—	+7	-1.1
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	—	108	97	16	2	1	0	9	39	0	3	5	165	236	206	442	41	267	36	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 1	—	108	92	20	3	1	0	14	27	0	3	5	217	321	272	592	54	299	25	13	275	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	—	241	220	45	4	0	1	13	65	4	19	8	205	262	236	498	32	284	27	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	—	241	212	60	6	0	1	21	45	4	19	8	283	359	325	684	42	353	19	9	313	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	277	254	56	9	5	5	9	66	9	5	1	220	272	354	626	134	271	24	3	272	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	277	250	71	12	7	7	13	46	9	5	1	284	342	472	814	188	317	17	5	353	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	438	400	103	13	4	10	24	83	7	13	4	258	311	385	696	128	300	19	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	438	384	112	15	5	11	40	57	7	13	4	292	369	443	812	151	317	13	9	357	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	429	391	96	14	1	3	25	92	10	12	10	246	308	309	617	64	311	21	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	429	376	113	20	2	5	39	66	10	12	10	301	380	404	785	104	351	15	9	354	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	382	355	59	8	1	9	13	90	9	12	2	166	215	270	485	104	192	24	3	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	382	347	74	17	1	11	21	71	9	12	2	213	276	363	639	150	233	19	5	284	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	449	421	92	17	5	7	14	97	7	6	6	219	256	333	588	114	265	22	3	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	449	402	100	15	6	7	30	77	7	6	6	249	310	368	678	119	289	17	7	300	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	—	108	98	16	2	1	0	9	39	0	3	5	163	236	204	440	41	250	36	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	—	241	222	45	4	0	1	13	65	4	19	8	203	262	234	496	32	271	27	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	277	257	56	9	5	5	9	66	9	5	1	218	272	350	622	132	266	24	3	272	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	438	404	103	13	4	10	24	83	7	13	4	255	311	381	692	126	292	19	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	429	391	96	14	1	3	25	92	10	12	10	246	308	309	617	64	309	21	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	382	357	59	8	1	9	13	90	9	12	2	165	215	269	484	104	189	24	3	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	449	425	92	17	5	7	14	97	7	6	6	216	256	329	585	113	257	22	3	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	429	391	96	14	1	3	25	92	10	12	10	246	308	309	617	64	309	21	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	382	357	59	8	1	9	13	90	9	12	2	165	215	269	484	104	189	24	3	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	449	425	92	17	5	7	14	97	7	6	6	216	256	329	585	113	257	22	3	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	LAD	2%	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	267	24	5	264	65	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAD	27%	258	240	54	9	2	5	12	57	4	4	2	225	273	342	615	117	270	22	5	270	69	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	40%	310	287	64	11	2	6	15	69	5	5	3	223	274	338	612	115	271	22	5	273	71	-11	-0	-1	-2	+7	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAD	27%	69	65	13	2	0	1	3	15	1	1	1	200	246	277	523	77	265	22	4	256	69	-3	-0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	40%	124	115	25	4	1	2	6	28	2	2	1	217	268	322	590	104	266	23	5	260	71	-4	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	193	180	38	6	1	3	9	43	3	3	2	211	260	306	566	94	259	22	5	259	62	-7	-0	-0	-1	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	127	20	3	10	30	145	10	10	7	210	258	302	560	92	258	22	5	259	62	-23	-1	-1	-4	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2913	2685	589	88	21	46	135	663	55	79	41	219	271	319	590	100	271	23	5	260	62	-21	-0	-1	-4	+13	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	132	20	5	10	30	148	12	18	9	220	271	321	592	100	273	23	5	260	62	-23	-0	-1	-4	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ezequiel Pagan (OGILVIE)	26	50	40	45	25	218/262/324	106	267	4	4	22%	4%	65	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blake Rutherford 2023 · AAA	26	44→53	41→45	46→50	36	218/249/321	102	284	9	8	26%	3%	58	-1.7	244/289/375	131	307	13	11	24%	5%	86	+0.3	270/317/421	150	334	14	10	22%	5%	105	+1.0
✕Cole Sturgeon 2018 · AA	26	47→49	39→40	46→50	42	228/265/314	86	280	6	10	21%	4%	62	-1.4	231/276/329	98	300	9	12	25%	5%	70	-0.8	224/272/317	93	282	9	12	23%	5%	63	-0.9
✕Steele Walker 2022 · AAA	26	43→47	45	47→50	44	215/266/336	121	258	13	10	22%	6%	69	-0.9	211/266/329	118	259	13	10	23%	6%	68	-1.0	198/257/309	111	239	13	9	23%	6%	56	-0.7
✕Adam Melker 2014 · AA	26	48	41→40	43→50	42	231/278/325	94	296	8	9	25%	6%	70	-0.8	237/282/332	95	293	9	13	22%	5%	74	-0.6	250/291/318	68	299	8	18	19%	4%	70	-0.5
✕Nick Banks 2021 · AA	26	46	43→45	49→45	39	224/266/337	112	296	10	8	28%	5%	69	-0.9	215/267/325	110	321	11	5	34%	6%	67	-1.1	208/262/315	107	314	11	2	36%	6%	59	-1.0
✕Beau Amaral 2017 · AAA	26	47→52	39→40	45→55	42	227/274/313	86	288	7	11	23%	5%	66	-1.1	217/266/294	77	283	5	10	24%	5%	59	-1.7	210/258/278	68	274	4	10	24%	5%	51	-1.0
✕Matt Pali 2007 · AA	26	43→46	43→40	45	42	217/262/314	97	260	12	9	22%	5%	62	-1.4	216/264/312	96	266	10	8	22%	5%	63	-1.4	210/259/290	80	254	9	6	21%	4%	53	-1.3
✕Sebastián Elizalde 2018 · AAA	26	49→55	39→45	49→45	42	235/270/319	84	277	7	6	18%	4%	65	-1.2	233/279/328	95	271	8	10	17%	5%	71	-0.8	218/277/281	63	253	4	22	15%	7%	58	-0.3
✕Alex Fernandez 2007 · AAA	26	49	40	48→45	42	237/269/328	92	280	8	10	19%	4%	67	-1.1	214/251/305	91	254	8	8	19%	5%	55	-1.9	194/221/258	64	226	4	2	16%	3%	31	-1.4
✕Engel Beltre 2016 · MLB	26	45→55	40→45	41→55	39	221/249/305	84	267	8	10	21%	3%	54	-2.0	250/288/342	92	301	7	12	19%	4%	78	-0.3	271/311/356	85	326	6	13	18%	3%	85	+0.1
✕Tucker Nathans 2016 · AA	27	47→48	42→45	47→45	41	228/271/328	101	289	9	6	24%	5%	68	-1.0	223/262/321	98	290	10	6	26%	4%	63	-1.3	218/251/296	79	272	8	2	23%	4%	50	-0.9
✕Aldrem Corredor 2022 · AA	26	45→54	43→45	46→40	41	223/271/331	108	295	10	4	28%	6%	70	-0.9	220/281/330	110	290	12	4	27%	7%	74	-0.6	210/276/309	99	271	13	0	27%	8%	65	-0.9
✕Gregory Thomson 2009 · AA	25	46→50	41→45	48→50	42	222/269/326	103	268	8	11	20%	5%	68	-1.0	211/268/324	113	267	10	9	24%	5%	68	-1.0	172/238/300	128	215	12	2	26%	4%	49	-0.7
✕Peter Lavin 2015 · AA	27	48→52	41→45	46→50	44	233/276/338	106	281	7	10	20%	5%	72	-0.7	226/271/338	112	272	9	8	20%	6%	70	-0.8	217/262/332	115	257	8	6	19%	6%	63	-1.1
✕Preston Beck 2017 · AAA	26	45→44	43→45	50→45	46	221/276/337	116	270	9	8	22%	7%	73	-0.6	217/269/318	101	276	8	5	23%	6%	65	-1.2	210/266/307	97	270	8	2	24%	6%	60	-1.1
✕Drew Dosch 2018 · AAA	26	46→56	41→45	49→40	40	224/265/331	108	294	7	5	26%	5%	67	-1.1	227/276/334	107	327	9	6	31%	6%	72	-0.7	225/274/318	93	339	8	1	34%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Orlando Martinez 2023 · AAA	25	44→49	44→45	45→50	39	218/262/334	116	293	11	9	29%	5%	66	-1.1	224/277/336	112	282	10	8	23%	7%	73	-0.6	231/294/322	92	284	6	11	20%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Herlis Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	25	41→51	41→45	46→50	40	203/250/300	97	260	8	11	25%	5%	55	-2.0	221/289/340	119	298	10	12	28%	6%	79	-0.2	220/300/352	132	302	11	13	28%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Francisco Ferreiro 2019 · AAA	25	46→54	41→40	46→45	44	224/272/328	104	278	8	11	22%	6%	69	-0.9	240/283/335	95	309	6	8	23%	5%	74	-0.6	250/289/334	85	322	3	5	22%	5%	73	-0.5
✕Mitch Longo 2021 · AA	26	45→44	42→45	52→50	42	217/267/324	106	281	8	13	25%	6%	66	-1.1	225/272/362	137	292	15	18	27%	5%	77	-0.3	222/266/365	143	283	17	22	27%	5%	73	-0.3