Drake George

P San Jose Giants

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 199 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#866ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ASF	13	12	56	3.20	1.93	26.7%	6.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 2.62
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.24	4.24	22.9%	8.9%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBSF	4	4	23	4.09	4.08	23.4%	8.9%	0.3
2029PROJ48% MLB	27	MLBSF	6	6	34	4.11	4.12	23.3%	8.9%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Blake Wehunt (age 23) · Jared Karros (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%22.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	13	12	56	232	62	15	1	92%	4.3	19.8%	7.6%	12.1%	0.4%	3.20	2.62	—
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	13	12	56	232	62	15	1	92%	4.3	19.8%	7.6%	12.1%	0.4%	3.20	2.62	—
2025	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	13	12	56	232	62	15	1	92%	4.3	26.7%	6.5%	20.3%	0.4%	3.20	1.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	75	317	74	28	9	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.20	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	71	300	70	27	9	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.24	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	73	309	78	25	9	100%	6.1	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	3.0%	4.12	4.05	+1.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	68	288	72	24	9	100%	6.2	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	3.2%	4.17	4.19	+1.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	62	263	64	23	9	100%	6.2	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	3.4%	4.29	4.37	+0.8
2033	31	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	55	233	56	21	8	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.6%	4.46	4.57	+0.5
2034	32	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	48	202	48	19	8	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.5%	14.2%	3.8%	4.66	4.79	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	23	97	23	9	3	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	2.6%	4.09	4.08	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	34	144	33	13	4	100%	5.7	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.7%	4.11	4.12	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	44	186	47	15	5	100%	6.3	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.8%	4.00	3.93	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	47	198	49	17	6	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	2.9%	4.04	4.06	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	46	194	48	17	6	100%	5.8	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	3.1%	4.15	4.23	+0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	44	186	45	17	6	100%	6.3	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.3%	4.31	4.42	+0.4
2034	32	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	40	169	40	16	6	100%	5.7	23.6%	9.5%	14.2%	3.6%	4.50	4.63	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	278	1172	284	103	36	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	3.0%	4.17	3.83	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	205	74	26	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	3.0%	4.17	3.83	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		13	12	56	232	46	18	1	92%	4.3	19.8%	7.6%	12.1%	0.4%	3.20	2.62	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	43	200	824	163	63	3	92%	4.3	19.8%	7.6%	12.1%	0.4%	3.20	2.62	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 56 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.62 (+0.72)K% 26.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.72%	—	×0.740	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.47%	—	×1.180	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.43%	÷1.358	×1.300	0.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 172).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drake George (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.16	23.9%	15.3%	219	-0.08	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	84
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	82
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	82
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	82
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	82
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	82
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	79
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	79
Jesse Hahn R 2014 · 3.15 FIP	25	SP	3.15	22.9%	10.1%	1.3%	.264	3.99	14.9%	6.0%	304	+0.84	2.19	499	79
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	79
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	79
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	79
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	78
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	65	24.0%	8.8%	1.22	4.28
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*