Miqueas Mercedes

Miqueas Mercedes P Wilson Warbirds

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%15.1%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%-1.0%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.28	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.28	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.41	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	1.4%	6.34	4.44	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	1.4%	6.34	4.44	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	1.1%	6.34	3.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	0.8%	2.61	4.28	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	0.8%	2.61	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIL	20	15	74	315	71	45	2	75%	3.7	22.5%	14.3%	8.3%	0.6%	2.81	3.35	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	MIL	1	1	6	23	4	4	0	100%	5.7	17.4%	17.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	82	345	58	49	10	100%	4.8	16.7%	14.4%	2.3%	2.8%	5.52	5.43	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	86	362	66	47	10	100%	5.0	18.2%	12.9%	5.3%	2.8%	5.23	5.09	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	89	375	72	45	10	100%	5.2	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	2.7%	5.01	4.88	+0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	91	385	76	44	10	100%	5.7	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	2.7%	4.85	4.75	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	92	389	78	44	10	100%	5.8	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	2.7%	4.75	4.68	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	389	79	43	10	100%	6.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	2.7%	4.69	4.66	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	91	383	78	43	10	100%	6.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.0%	2.7%	4.69	4.69	+0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	88	372	75	42	11	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.74	4.78	+0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	84	355	71	41	11	100%	6.0	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	3.0%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	79	334	72	37	11	100%	6.1	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	4.83	4.82	+0.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	74	312	66	36	11	100%	6.1	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.4%	4.94	5.02	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	40	169	28	24	5	100%	5.0	16.7%	14.4%	2.3%	2.9%	5.60	5.51	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	62	262	48	34	8	100%	5.2	18.2%	12.9%	5.3%	2.9%	5.31	5.17	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	75	317	60	38	9	100%	5.4	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	2.9%	5.08	4.95	+0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	81	342	67	39	10	100%	5.8	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	2.8%	4.92	4.82	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	85	359	72	40	10	100%	5.7	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.82	4.75	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	86	363	74	41	10	100%	6.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.73	+0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	86	363	74	41	10	100%	6.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.0%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	+0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	84	355	72	40	11	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.82	4.86	+0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	80	338	67	39	11	100%	6.2	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	3.1%	4.92	4.99	-0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	75	317	68	35	11	100%	6.2	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.92	4.91	+0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	70	296	63	34	11	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.6%	5.03	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	144	824	3481	693	406	105	100%	5.7	19.9%	11.7%	8.3%	3.0%	4.95	4.54	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	168	98	25	100%	5.7	19.9%	11.7%	8.3%	3.0%	4.95	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		41	30	144	646	106	100	8	73%	3.5	16.3%	15.6%	0.8%	1.2%	4.43	4.35	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	42	200	895	146	139	11	73%	3.5	16.3%	15.6%	0.8%	1.2%	4.43	4.35	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miqueas Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	15.1%	16.1%	2.8%	—	5.13	18.0%	5.0%	256	-0.68	—	—	—
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	90
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	88
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	87
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	87
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	86
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	85
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	85
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	84
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	84
Jorge Bautista R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	20	SP	6.09	13.1%	16.5%	3.6%	.297	4.86	16.8%	7.5%	231	-1.23	3.80	336	84
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	83
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	82
Luis Alecis R 2017 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP-	5.17	15.0%	17.6%	2.0%	.289	4.12	17.9%	2.6%	59	-1.05	3.60	229	82
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	82
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	82
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	82
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Julio Pinto R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	20	SP-	5.05	13.0%	15.8%	1.9%	.293	6.08	15.5%	-0.9%	182	+1.03	4.41	368	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	82	19.5%	12.0%	1.10	4.95
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32