Miqueas Mercedes

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1309ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	10.12	4.41	24.0%	8.0%	—	K 24.0% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.28
2025	19	MIX2 levels	17	13	60	6.34	3.38	21.9%	12.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.44
2026	20	MIX2 levels	21	16	79	2.61	3.39	22.2%	14.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	—	—	0	5.86	5.86	15.2%	17.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	5	5	27	5.58	5.45	17.3%	15.3%	0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	7	7	39	5.29	5.15	18.5%	13.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsKyle Larsen (age 21) · Danny Flatt (age 20) · Trey Riley (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%15.2%

BB%17.7%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.28	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.28	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	3	1	5	25	6	2	1	33%	1.8	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	4.0%	10.12	4.41	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	1.4%	6.34	4.44	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	1.4%	6.34	4.44	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	60	283	62	34	3	76%	3.5	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	1.1%	6.34	3.38	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	0.8%	2.61	4.28	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	0.8%	2.61	4.28	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	16	79	338	75	49	2	76%	3.8	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	0.6%	2.61	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.2%	17.7%	-2.4%	2.6%	5.86	5.86	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	54	228	39	35	6	100%	4.9	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	2.6%	5.51	5.38	+0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	54	228	42	31	6	100%	5.4	18.5%	13.8%	4.7%	2.6%	5.22	5.08	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	54	228	44	29	6	100%	5.4	19.3%	12.8%	6.5%	2.6%	5.00	4.89	+0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	41	25	5	100%	6.1	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	2.6%	4.86	4.77	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	41	25	5	100%	6.1	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.6%	4.79	4.75	+0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	51	216	48	25	6	100%	5.7	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	2.6%	4.63	4.52	+0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	45	24	6	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.61	4.60	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	45	192	41	23	5	100%	5.7	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.73	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	41	174	37	21	5	100%	5.9	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	3.1%	4.82	4.91	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	27	114	20	17	3	100%	5.4	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	2.7%	5.58	5.45	+0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	39	165	31	23	4	100%	5.6	18.5%	13.8%	4.7%	2.7%	5.29	5.15	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	45	190	37	24	5	100%	5.6	19.3%	12.8%	6.5%	2.7%	5.07	4.96	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	43	182	36	22	5	100%	6.1	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	2.7%	4.93	4.84	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	45	190	38	23	5	100%	5.6	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.7%	4.86	4.82	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	47	198	44	23	5	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.70	4.59	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	46	194	42	23	6	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.67	+0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	43	182	39	22	5	100%	6.1	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	3.0%	4.76	4.81	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	39	165	35	20	5	100%	6.5	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	3.2%	4.90	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	374	1579	321	197	44	100%	5.8	20.4%	12.5%	7.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.51	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	172	105	24	100%	5.8	20.4%	12.5%	7.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.51	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		41	30	144	646	106	100	8	73%	3.5	16.3%	15.6%	0.8%	1.2%	4.43	4.35	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	42	200	895	146	139	11	73%	3.5	16.3%	15.6%	0.8%	1.2%	4.43	4.35	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 74 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.28 (+0.93)K% 22.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.54%	—	×0.740	16.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 6 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.50 (+0.67)K% 17.4% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.770	13.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.150	20.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Brewers · 46 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.16 (+1.14)K% 22.1% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.06%	—	×0.680	15.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.80%	—	×1.250	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷0.971	×1.400	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 14 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.15 (+0.93)K% 21.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.52%	—	×0.740	15.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.72%	—	×1.180	20.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.214	×1.300	1.36%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Brewers 2 · 5 IPFIP 4.28 → 6.79 (+2.51)K% 24.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.680	16.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.808	×1.400	6.93%

Result: FIP 4.28 → 6.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miqueas Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	15.2%	17.7%	2.6%	—	5.12	18.4%	4.4%	162	-0.74	—	—	—
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	91
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	86
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	85
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	84
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	83
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	82
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	82
Samuel Colmenares R 2024 · 6.21 FIP	19	SP-	6.21	17.3%	21.0%	3.5%	.292	3.85	15.8%	8.0%	31	-2.36	3.85	123	81
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	81
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	80
Wilmer Blanco R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	20	SP	5.76	14.9%	16.3%	3.4%	.364	5.82	14.1%	2.3%	47	+0.06	3.81	163	80
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	80
Jesus Lafalaise R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	19	SP-	5.54	13.0%	22.7%	1.2%	.368	4.19	17.0%	2.6%	147	-1.35	3.53	172	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	49	19.6%	13.2%	1.03	5.01
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*