Samuel Colmenares
P
FCL Blue Jays
Age 21
RHP
5'10" / 187 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.4%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP21
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 11 | 11 | 53 | 210 | 45 | 22 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.6% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.04 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 11 | 11 | 53 | 210 | 45 | 22 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 1.0% | 3.04 | 3.14 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 39 | 181 | 45 | 32 | 5 | 75% | 3.3 | 17.3% | 21.0% | -3.7% | 3.8% | 6.86 | 6.38 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 39 | 181 | 45 | 32 | 5 | 75% | 3.3 | 24.9% | 17.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 6.86 | 4.91 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 9 | 3 | 31 | 129 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 33% | 3.5 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 4.02 | 3.78 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 9 | 3 | 31 | 129 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 33% | 3.5 | 23.3% | 6.2% | 17.1% | 1.6% | 4.02 | 2.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 21 | 90 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 22 | 95 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 73 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 23 | 124 | 520 | 82 | 75 | 12 | 72% | 3.9 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 4.84 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 37 | 200 | 839 | 133 | 122 | 19 | 72% | 3.9 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Colmenares (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 22 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 84 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 84 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 83 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 82 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2024 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 82 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 82 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 81 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 80 |
| Peyton Remy R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.82 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.25 | 3.57 | 286 | 80 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 80 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 80 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 80 |
| Ricky Castro R 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 80 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.17 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .366 | 3.31 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 61 | -0.86 | 3.25 | 266 | 79 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 79 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 79 |
| Miguel Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 5.83 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 108 | +2.53 | 2.55 | 272 | 79 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 78 |