Samuel Colmenares

Samuel Colmenares P FCL Blue Jays

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 187 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%19.8%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	11	53	210	45	22	2	100%	4.8	14.6%	13.1%	1.5%	1.2%	3.04	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	11	53	210	45	22	2	100%	4.8	14.6%	13.1%	1.5%	1.2%	3.04	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	11	11	53	210	45	22	2	100%	4.8	21.4%	10.5%	11.0%	1.0%	3.04	3.14	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	39	181	45	32	5	75%	3.3	17.3%	21.0%	-3.7%	3.5%	6.86	6.21	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	39	181	45	32	5	75%	3.3	17.3%	21.0%	-3.7%	3.5%	6.86	6.21	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	39	181	45	32	5	75%	3.3	24.9%	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%	6.86	4.91	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	3	31	129	30	8	2	33%	3.5	15.8%	7.8%	8.1%	2.0%	4.02	3.85	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	3	31	129	30	8	2	33%	3.5	15.8%	7.8%	8.1%	2.0%	4.02	3.85	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	9	3	31	129	30	8	2	33%	3.5	23.3%	6.2%	17.1%	1.6%	4.02	2.78	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	TOR	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	19.8%	12.4%	7.3%	3.0%	5.01	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TOR	6	6	37	157	33	17	5	100%	6.2	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.79	4.69	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	TOR	3	3	18	76	16	8	2	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.79	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	18	77	16	9	2	100%	6.1	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.79	4.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	98	22	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.79	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		32	23	124	520	82	75	12	72%	3.9	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	2.2%	4.50	4.82	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	839	133	122	19	72%	3.9	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	2.2%	4.50	4.82	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Colmenares (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	19.8%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.69	21.2%	10.1%	37	-0.32	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	82
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	82
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	81
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	81
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	81
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	81
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	81
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	80
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	80
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.7%	11.6%	1.13	4.87
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19