Samuel Colmenares
P
FCL Blue Jays
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
RHP
5'10" / 187 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.6%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 11 | 11 | 53 | 210 | 45 | 22 | 2 | 14.6% | 13.1% | 1.2% | 3.04 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 12 | 9 | 39 | 181 | 45 | 32 | 5 | 17.3% | 21.0% | 3.6% | 6.86 | 6.25 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 9 | 3 | 31 | 129 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 4.02 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 23 | 124 | 520 | 82 | 75 | 11 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 4.81 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 37 | 200 | 839 | 132 | 121 | 18 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 4.81 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Colmenares (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.13 | 24.0% | 15.3% | 99 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 94 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 93 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 92 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 90 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 90 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 90 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 89 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 89 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 89 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 89 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 89 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 88 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 111 | +0.23 | 2.94 | 206 | 88 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 87 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.78 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .341 | 4.02 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.24 | 3.40 | 259 | 87 |
| Tyler Bray R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 87 |
| Collin Kober R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 2.76 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.63 | 2.38 | 294 | 87 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $7M | +$3M | ||