Samuel Colmenares

P FCL Blue Jays

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 187 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKTOR	11	11	53	3.04	3.14	21.4%	10.5%	—	K 14.6% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.20
2024	19	MIX2 levels	12	9	39	6.86	4.91	24.9%	17.7%	—	K 17.3% · BB 21.0% · FIP 6.21
2025	20	ROKTOR	9	3	31	4.02	2.78	23.3%	6.2%	—	K 15.8% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.85
2026	21	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	22	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.69	4.69	21.5%	10.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTOR	3	3	14	4.55	4.48	22.4%	10.1%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRyan Atkinson (age 23) · Chad Donato (age 22) · Noah Denoyer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%21.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	11	53	210	45	22	2	100%	4.8	14.6%	13.1%	1.5%	1.2%	3.04	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	11	11	53	210	45	22	2	100%	4.8	21.4%	10.5%	11.0%	1.0%	3.04	3.14	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	39	181	45	32	5	75%	3.3	17.3%	21.0%	-3.7%	3.5%	6.86	6.21	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	39	181	45	32	5	75%	3.3	17.3%	21.0%	-3.7%	3.5%	6.86	6.21	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	39	181	45	32	5	75%	3.3	24.9%	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%	6.86	4.91	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	3	31	129	30	8	2	33%	3.5	15.8%	7.8%	8.1%	2.0%	4.02	3.85	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	3	31	129	30	8	2	33%	3.5	15.8%	7.8%	8.1%	2.0%	4.02	3.85	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	9	3	31	129	30	8	2	33%	3.5	23.3%	6.2%	17.1%	1.6%	4.02	2.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	10.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TOR	5	5	29	124	28	12	4	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.48	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	TOR	3	3	14	59	13	6	2	100%	4.7	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	14	61	14	6	2	100%	4.8	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.10	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	194	83	28	100%	5.4	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.10	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		32	23	124	520	82	75	12	72%	3.9	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	2.2%	4.50	4.82	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	839	133	122	19	72%	3.9	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	2.2%	4.50	4.82	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 31 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.85 (+1.08)K% 23.3% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.680	15.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.20%	—	×1.250	7.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.077	×1.400	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 39 IPFIP 4.34 → 6.21 (+1.87)K% 25.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.43%	—	×0.680	17.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.76%	—	×1.250	20.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷0.925	×1.400	3.50%

Result: FIP 4.34 → 6.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Blue Jays · 53 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.20 (+1.06)K% 21.4% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.680	14.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.48%	—	×1.250	13.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.083	×1.400	1.23%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Colmenares (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.5%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.48	22.4%	12.3%	29	-0.21	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	81
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	81
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	80
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	79