Jesus Lafalaise — OGILVIE

Jesus Lafalaise P Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%17.1%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	7	5	25	110	21	20	1	71%	3.5	13.0%	22.7%	-9.7%	1.2%	5.84	5.54	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	7	5	25	110	21	20	1	71%	3.5	13.0%	22.7%	-9.7%	1.2%	5.84	5.54	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	7	5	25	110	21	20	1	71%	3.5	19.1%	18.2%	0.9%	0.9%	5.84	4.36	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	51	218	49	25	0	25%	2.6	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	0.0%	4.56	3.53	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	51	218	49	25	0	25%	2.6	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	0.0%	4.56	3.53	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	5	51	218	49	25	0	25%	2.6	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	0.0%	4.56	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	21	17	96	399	96	50	6	81%	4.6	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	2.0%	3.76	4.54	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	21	17	96	399	96	50	6	81%	4.6	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	2.0%	3.76	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	TEX	21	17	96	399	96	50	6	81%	4.6	24.1%	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	3.76	3.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	98	415	79	55	11	100%	6.2	19.1%	13.1%	5.9%	2.7%	5.15	5.02	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	102	431	88	51	12	100%	6.4	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	2.7%	4.87	4.73	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	105	442	93	48	12	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.9%	10.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.55	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	106	448	96	47	12	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.4%	11.0%	2.7%	4.54	4.45	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	106	448	97	47	12	100%	6.2	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	2.7%	4.47	4.43	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	104	441	95	46	12	100%	6.1	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.47	4.47	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	101	428	92	45	12	100%	6.3	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.55	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	97	408	87	44	12	100%	6.4	21.3%	10.9%	10.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.68	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	91	384	80	43	12	100%	6.5	20.9%	11.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.76	4.86	+0.0
2036	31	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	85	358	74	41	12	100%	6.5	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	3.4%	4.94	5.06	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	48	203	39	27	6	100%	6.0	19.1%	13.1%	5.9%	2.9%	5.26	5.13	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	74	312	64	37	9	100%	6.2	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	2.9%	4.98	4.84	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	87	367	77	40	11	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.78	4.66	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	94	397	85	41	11	100%	6.3	21.5%	10.4%	11.0%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	97	410	89	43	12	100%	6.5	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.54	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	97	410	89	43	12	100%	6.5	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	95	401	86	43	12	100%	6.3	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.67	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	92	388	83	42	12	100%	6.1	21.3%	10.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.74	4.80	+0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	86	363	76	41	12	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.99	+0.0
2036	31	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	81	342	70	39	12	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	3.6%	5.08	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	135	850	3590	757	395	110	100%	6.3	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.39	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	178	93	26	100%	6.3	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		48	27	172	727	119	114	9	56%	3.6	16.4%	15.7%	0.7%	1.3%	4.30	4.39	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	31	200	847	139	133	11	56%	3.6	16.4%	15.7%	0.7%	1.3%	4.30	4.39	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Lafalaise (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	17.1%	15.2%	2.7%	—	4.76	20.2%	8.2%	305	-0.71	—	—	—
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	91
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	87
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	86
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	86
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	86
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	85
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	85
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.62	298	85
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	83
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	81
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	81
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	94	20.8%	11.3%	1.09	4.72
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25