Jesus Lafalaise

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#474ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Rangers B…	7	5	25	5.84	4.36	19.1%	18.2%	—	K 13.0% · BB 22.7% · FIP 5.54
2025	20	MIX2 levels	20	5	51	4.56	2.65	22.5%	11.5%	—	K 15.6% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.53
2026	21	ATEX	21	17	96	3.76	3.48	24.1%	12.5%	—	K 17.8% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	22	MLBTEX	—	—	0	5.29	5.29	18.4%	14.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTEX	6	6	34	5.14	5.03	19.9%	13.0%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBTEX	8	8	48	4.91	4.80	20.8%	11.8%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsNick Garcia (age 22) · Braden Webb (age 22) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%18.4%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%3.6%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	7	5	25	110	21	20	1	71%	3.5	13.0%	22.7%	-9.7%	1.2%	5.84	5.54	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	7	5	25	110	21	20	1	71%	3.5	13.0%	22.7%	-9.7%	1.2%	5.84	5.54	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	7	5	25	110	21	20	1	71%	3.5	19.1%	18.2%	0.9%	0.9%	5.84	4.36	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	51	218	49	25	0	25%	2.6	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	0.0%	4.56	3.53	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	51	218	49	25	0	25%	2.6	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	0.0%	4.56	3.53	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	5	51	218	49	25	0	25%	2.6	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	0.0%	4.56	2.65	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	21	17	96	399	96	50	6	81%	4.6	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	2.0%	3.76	4.54	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	21	17	96	399	96	50	6	81%	4.6	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	2.0%	3.76	4.54	—
2026	21	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	21	17	96	399	96	50	6	81%	4.6	24.1%	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	3.76	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	14.9%	3.6%	2.7%	5.29	5.29	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	69	293	58	38	8	100%	6.3	19.9%	13.0%	7.0%	2.7%	5.03	4.92	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	69	293	61	34	8	100%	6.3	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	2.7%	4.80	4.69	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	62	263	56	29	7	100%	6.2	21.3%	11.0%	10.2%	2.7%	4.64	4.55	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	62	262	56	29	7	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	2.7%	4.57	4.52	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	60	255	55	28	7	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	2.7%	4.56	4.56	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	57	242	52	27	7	100%	6.4	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.61	4.64	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	53	225	48	26	7	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.71	4.77	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	52	221	50	24	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	10.8%	11.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.68	+0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	47	197	44	22	7	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.81	4.88	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	34	144	29	19	4	100%	5.7	19.9%	13.0%	7.0%	2.9%	5.14	5.03	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	48	203	42	24	6	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	2.9%	4.91	4.80	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	51	215	46	24	6	100%	6.4	21.3%	11.0%	10.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.66	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	54	228	49	25	7	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.68	4.63	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	55	232	50	25	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.67	4.67	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	53	224	48	25	7	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	50	211	45	24	7	100%	6.2	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.2%	4.83	4.89	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	49	207	47	22	7	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.8%	11.9%	3.4%	4.82	4.81	+0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	44	186	42	21	7	100%	6.3	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.7%	4.95	5.02	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	71	438	1849	396	208	57	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.3%	10.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.42	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	95	26	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.3%	10.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		48	27	172	727	119	114	9	56%	3.6	16.4%	15.7%	0.7%	1.3%	4.30	4.39	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	31	200	847	139	133	11	56%	3.6	16.4%	15.7%	0.7%	1.3%	4.30	4.39	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHickory Crawdads · 96 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.54 (+1.06)K% 24.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.06%	—	×0.740	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.53%	—	×1.180	14.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 31 IPFIP 1.67 → 2.62 (+0.95)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.07%	—	×0.680	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×1.250	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.302	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 1.67 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 21 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.96 (+0.76)K% 15.3% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.29%	—	×0.740	11.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.82%	—	×1.180	22.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.037	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Rangers Blue · 25 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.54 (+1.25)K% 19.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.09%	—	×0.680	12.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.250	22.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.059	×1.400	1.20%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Lafalaise (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.73	20.6%	8.7%	201	-0.56	—	—	—
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	90
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	89
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	89
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	88
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	87
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	87
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	86
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	86
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	86
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	86
Kyle Johnston R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.10	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.42	3.80	395	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	85
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	84
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	60	21.0%	11.8%	1.10	4.78
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Scott Eyre ('09)	3.2	59	18.6%	11.5%	1.15	4.23
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*