Jesus Lafalaise
P
Hickory Crawdads
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.34
FIP5.34
K%17.1%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%2.8%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 7 | 5 | 25 | 110 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 71% | 3.5 | 13.0% | 22.7% | -9.7% | 1.1% | 5.84 | 5.51 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 7 | 5 | 25 | 110 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 71% | 3.5 | 19.1% | 18.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 5.84 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 5 | 51 | 218 | 49 | 25 | 0 | 25% | 2.6 | 15.6% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 4.56 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 5 | 51 | 218 | 49 | 25 | 0 | 25% | 2.6 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 4.56 | 2.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 14 | 14 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.5% | 15.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 42 | 177 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 5.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 107 | 451 | 91 | 60 | 11 | — | — | 20.2% | 13.3% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 4.80 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4 | 4 | 22 | 92 | 18 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 4.55 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 101 | 18 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 24 | 141 | 602 | 94 | 96 | 9 | 59% | 3.4 | 15.5% | 16.0% | -0.5% | 1.5% | 4.73 | 4.64 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 34 | 200 | 856 | 133 | 137 | 13 | 59% | 3.4 | 15.5% | 16.0% | -0.5% | 1.5% | 4.73 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Lafalaise (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.34 | 17.1% | 14.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.93 | 19.2% | 6.7% | 44 | -0.41 | — | — | — |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 90 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 89 |
| Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.59 | 27.4% | 17.5% | 264 | -0.74 | 3.28 | 535 | 87 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 86 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 85 |
| Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 85 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .230 | 5.55 | 18.5% | 5.0% | 109 | +0.87 | 4.68 | 188 | 85 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 84 |
| Ike Buxton R 2028 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 84 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 84 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 84 |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 84 |
| Juan Mota R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.4% | 14.8% | 1.6% | .309 | 5.22 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 111 | +0.94 | 3.89 | 279 | 83 |
| Luis Mora R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.78 | 16.3% | 15.4% | 3.8% | .303 | 5.55 | 23.9% | 1.2% | 43 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 119 | 83 |
| Henry Valencio R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .293 | 5.11 | 11.9% | -11.9% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.48 | 136 | 83 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.36 | 17.8% | -0.6% | 163 | -0.05 | 3.51 | 278 | 83 |
| Gabriel Chinchilla R 2024 · 5.10 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.10 | 17.9% | 14.4% | 3.1% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 113 | 83 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.13 | 15.5% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.62 | 179 | 83 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 82 |
| Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 18.2% | 13.4% | 1.05 | 5.19 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |