Tanner Gresham — OGILVIE

Tanner Gresham P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%20.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	24	23	99	434	104	51	12	96%	4.1	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	3.5%	4.09	5.23	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	24	23	99	434	104	51	12	96%	4.1	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	3.5%	4.09	5.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	PHI	12	11	43	180	51	23	4	92%	3.6	28.3%	12.8%	15.6%	2.2%	2.95	3.55	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	PHI	12	12	56	254	53	28	8	100%	4.7	20.9%	11.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.95	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	98	415	89	45	12	100%	5.8	21.4%	10.8%	10.6%	3.0%	4.74	4.70	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	98	415	90	44	12	100%	6.1	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.64	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	97	408	88	43	12	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.65	4.66	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	94	396	85	42	13	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.69	4.73	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	90	378	81	41	13	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	3.3%	4.79	4.86	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	84	356	74	39	12	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	42	177	38	19	6	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.8%	10.6%	3.2%	4.86	4.82	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	65	274	59	29	9	100%	5.9	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.78	4.76	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	75	317	69	33	10	100%	6.2	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.77	4.78	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	79	334	72	35	11	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.82	4.86	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	78	329	70	35	12	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	3.5%	4.92	4.99	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	76	321	67	36	12	100%	5.8	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	3.8%	5.08	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	415	1753	375	188	60	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.87	4.53	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	91	29	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	3.4%	4.87	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		24	23	99	434	79	59	15	96%	4.1	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	3.5%	4.09	5.23	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	46	200	877	159	120	31	96%	4.1	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	3.5%	4.09	5.23	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Gresham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.9%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.67	21.6%	11.0%	293	-0.21	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	81
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	78
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	77
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	75
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	75
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	75
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	75
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	75
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	74
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	74
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	83	21.4%	10.7%	1.22	4.74
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Spencer Turnbull ('24)	1.7	68	22.0%	9.2%	0.77	4.18