Jack Martinez

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1187ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	23	94	4.61	3.68	29.2%	12.3%	—	K 21.8% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.93
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.23	5.23	21.1%	14.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	5	5	29	4.92	4.86	21.6%	12.8%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSTL	7	7	42	4.81	4.78	21.8%	12.3%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.6M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsKhristian Curtis (age 22) · Connor Staine (age 23) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%21.1%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	94	415	121	51	11	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	94	415	121	51	11	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	94	415	121	51	11	96%	3.9	29.2%	12.3%	16.9%	2.7%	4.61	3.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	14.3%	6.8%	3.1%	5.23	5.23	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	68	288	62	37	9	100%	5.7	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	3.1%	5.04	4.98	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	63	266	58	33	8	100%	6.3	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.1%	4.93	4.90	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	60	253	55	31	8	100%	6.0	21.8%	12.2%	9.7%	3.1%	4.90	4.91	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	57	239	52	29	8	100%	6.3	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.2%	4.93	4.97	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	58	243	57	28	8	100%	5.8	23.5%	11.6%	11.8%	3.4%	4.87	4.83	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	52	219	51	26	8	100%	5.8	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	3.6%	4.95	5.01	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	29	122	26	16	4	100%	5.8	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.92	4.86	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	42	177	39	22	5	100%	6.0	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	2.9%	4.81	4.78	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	46	194	42	24	6	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.78	4.79	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	48	203	44	25	6	100%	6.0	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.85	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	50	25	7	100%	6.2	23.5%	11.6%	11.8%	3.2%	4.74	4.70	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	46	24	7	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	3.3%	4.81	4.87	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	262	1105	247	134	34	100%	5.9	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.80	4.42	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	189	102	26	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.80	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		24	23	94	415	91	60	14	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	49	200	886	193	127	30	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 61 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.34 (+1.32)K% 32.6% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.58%	—	×0.740	24.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.88%	—	×1.180	15.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 33 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.96 (+1.21)K% 23.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.18%	—	×0.770	17.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.26%	—	×1.150	12.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.93	21.8%	9.3%	191	-0.30	—	—	—
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	85
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	84
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	83
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	82
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	81
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	81
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	80
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	80
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	80
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	79
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	79
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	79
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	79
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	22.1%	12.5%	1.25	4.99
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57