Jack Martinez — OGILVIE

Jack Martinez P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%21.8%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD3045

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	23	94	415	121	51	11	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	23	94	415	121	51	11	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	STL	16	16	61	264	86	34	5	100%	3.8	32.6%	12.9%	19.7%	1.9%	4.30	3.02	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	STL	8	7	33	151	35	17	6	88%	4.1	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	4.0%	5.18	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	94	397	89	46	12	100%	5.5	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.71	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	95	402	91	44	12	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.57	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	95	402	92	43	12	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.53	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	94	396	91	42	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	91	384	87	42	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.65	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	87	367	83	41	12	100%	6.2	22.5%	11.1%	11.5%	3.3%	4.71	4.78	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	345	76	39	12	100%	5.8	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.5%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	40	169	38	20	5	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	2.8%	4.66	4.59	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	63	266	61	29	7	100%	5.7	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.46	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	75	317	73	34	9	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	77	36	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	2.8%	4.44	4.44	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	81	342	78	37	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.53	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	79	334	75	37	10	100%	6.1	22.5%	11.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	75	317	70	36	10	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.73	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	494	2085	472	229	61	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.0%	11.7%	2.9%	4.55	4.18	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	93	25	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.0%	11.7%	2.9%	4.55	4.18	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		24	23	94	415	91	60	14	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	49	200	886	193	127	30	96%	3.9	21.8%	14.4%	7.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.93	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	21.8%	13.0%	3.0%	—	4.60	22.7%	11.6%	284	-0.35	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	88
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	79
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	79
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	78
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	78
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	78
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	77
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	77
Jeronimo Castro R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP	3.85	20.1%	12.2%	1.7%	.358	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	158	77
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	82	22.6%	11.1%	1.21	4.68
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Spencer Turnbull ('24)	1.7	68	22.0%	9.2%	0.77	4.18
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24