Ethan Lanthier
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 10.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.14 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 10.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.77 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 5 | 5 | 14 | 64 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 15.0% | 18.4% | -3.4% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 5.74 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 5 | 5 | 14 | 64 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 20.3% | 15.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 4.61 | 4.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 6 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 1.7 | — | — | — | — | 10.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 8.1 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 18 | 85 | 18 | 8 | 2 | — | — | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 7.82 | 1.96 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 3.95 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 13 | 11 | 27 | 125 | 25 | 18 | 3 | 85% | 2.1 | 19.7% | 14.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 6.33 | 4.48 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 81 | 200 | 926 | 182 | 132 | 21 | 85% | 2.1 | 19.7% | 14.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 6.33 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Lanthier (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.33 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 20 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jared Ruxer R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.68 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.52 | 3.38 | 270 | 78 |
| Michael Grove R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 76 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 74 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 74 |
| Dane Acker R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 72 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 70 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 70 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 69 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 69 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 69 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 68 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 68 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 68 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 68 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 67 |
| Leonardo Pestana R 2028 · 5.53 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.53 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 4.7% | .324 | 5.35 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 66 | -0.18 | 3.61 | 155 | 67 |
| Blake Rivera R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .432 | 4.33 | 20.4% | 4.5% | 92 | -0.05 | 3.78 | 179 | 67 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.82 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.37 | 3.45 | 102 | 66 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 66 |
| Jeremiah Burke R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.83 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 2.0% | .255 | 3.83 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 49 | +0.00 | 3.83 | 137 | 66 |