Ethan Lanthier — OGILVIE

Ethan Lanthier P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%20.6%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	5	1	0	0%	1.5	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	5	1	0	0%	1.5	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2024	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	5	1	0	0%	1.5	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.77	—
2025	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	5	5	14	64	13	10	1	100%	2.7	15.0%	18.4%	-3.4%	2.4%	4.61	5.47	—
2025	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	5	5	14	64	13	10	1	100%	2.7	15.0%	18.4%	-3.4%	2.4%	4.61	5.47	—
2025	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	5	5	14	64	13	10	1	100%	2.7	20.3%	15.6%	4.7%	1.6%	4.61	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	14	14	36	165	36	23	5	100%	2.5	15.7%	16.2%	-0.5%	4.5%	8.33	6.26	—
YTD	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	14	14	36	165	36	23	5	100%	2.5	15.7%	16.2%	-0.5%	4.5%	8.33	6.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	NYM	3	3	3	19	5	3	0	100%	1.0	26.3%	15.8%	10.5%	0.0%	21.00	2.88	—
2026	23	A RAW	NYM	11	11	33	146	31	20	5	100%	3.0	21.2%	13.7%	7.5%	3.4%	7.16	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	6	6	36	151	32	19	4	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	3	3	15	63	14	8	2	100%	5.0	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	65	14	8	2	100%	5.1	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	183	105	26	100%	5.6	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		21	19	52	239	41	39	9	90%	2.5	17.0%	16.5%	0.4%	3.7%	6.88	5.80	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	73	200	913	155	151	34	90%	2.5	17.0%	16.5%	0.4%	3.7%	6.88	5.80	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Lanthier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	20.6%	14.5%	3.0%	—	4.91	21.4%	8.7%	36	-0.30	—	—	—
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	88
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Landon Sims R 2023 · 6.04 FIP	22	SP	6.04	19.3%	12.9%	5.3%	.302	3.99	19.9%	7.8%	168	-2.05	3.35	184	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	78
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	75
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	75
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	75
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	74
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	73
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	73
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	73
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	72
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	71
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	71
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	71
Conor Grammes R 2021 · 5.74 FIP	24	SP	5.74	20.4%	11.4%	5.3%	.417	4.35	22.9%	4.9%	124	-1.39	4.11	171	71
Cam Schlittler R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	22	SP	4.80	17.6%	13.8%	2.6%	.330	3.01	27.8%	19.2%	447	-1.79	2.38	488	70
Leonardo Pestana R 2023 · 5.67 FIP	25	SP	5.67	21.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.324	5.34	21.8%	8.0%	66	-0.33	3.61	155	70