Argenis Cayama
P
San Jose Giants
+0.4
WAR
Age 19
RHP
6'0" / 204 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2033
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.5%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2033
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 10 | 10 | 24 | 106 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 2.59 | 2.87 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 18 | A | San Jose Giants | 18 | 15 | 62 | 271 | 62 | 28 | 2 | 15.7% | 12.7% | 0.7% | 3.61 | 3.75 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.87 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | SF | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 45 | 21 | 6 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 19 | MLB | SF | — | — | 57 | 244 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | SF | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | SF | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | SF | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 61 | 21 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.01 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 64 | 21 | 7 | 24.8% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 66 | 21 | 7 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.82 | 3.77 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.75 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 66 | 21 | 7 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 65 | 20 | 7 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | SF | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 25.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | SF | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 61 | 20 | 7 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | SF | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 24.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 27 | 94 | 411 | 74 | 46 | 2 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 0.4% | 3.53 | 3.22 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 57 | 200 | 871 | 157 | 98 | 4 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 0.4% | 3.53 | 3.22 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Argenis Cayama (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.19 | 22.8% | 13.7% | 164 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 93 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 89 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.30 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .330 | 4.81 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.51 | 4.30 | 358 | 89 |
| Osiris German R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.14 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.12 | 3.11 | 187 | 88 |
| Layonel Ovalles R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.56 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.59 | 17.4% | 3.0% | 146 | +1.03 | 2.60 | 227 | 87 |
| Blake Workman R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 86 |
| Jose Montero R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.74 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .377 | 4.02 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.28 | 3.74 | 273 | 86 |
| Scott Williams R 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 86 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 86 |
| Danny Dopico R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 86 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 86 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.92 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .303 | 4.44 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.48 | 3.05 | 442 | 85 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 85 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.30 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.98 | 3.32 | 124 | 85 |
| Matt Walker R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.54 | 2.42 | 211 | 85 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2028 · 3.15 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.15 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +1.74 | 3.15 | 395 | 85 |
| David Morillo R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.24 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .273 | 4.18 | 17.0% | 1.6% | 69 | +0.94 | 3.24 | 142 | 84 |
| Andry Rondon R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.46 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.98 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 49 | +0.52 | 3.26 | 105 | 84 |
| Dario Gardea R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 1.5% | .250 | 3.46 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 50 | +0.00 | 3.12 | 205 | 84 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2029 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | -$0.3M |
| Totals | $13M | $23M | +$11M | ||