Argenis Cayama

P San Jose Giants

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 204 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#253ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	10	10	24	2.59	1.83	27.4%	8.5%	—	K 18.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 2.87
2025	18	MIX2 levels	18	15	62	3.61	2.88	22.9%	10.3%	—	K 15.7% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.76
2026	19	MIX2 levels	19	18	64	4.76	2.73	28.7%	6.6%	—	K 22.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	20	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.49	4.49	20.9%	9.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSF	5	5	26	4.26	4.21	21.6%	8.6%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBSF	7	7	40	4.11	4.02	22.7%	8.1%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 8.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 82%

CompsRayner Urbaez (age 20) · José López (age 21) · Jordany Ventura (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%20.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$47M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.4M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$10M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	24	106	29	9	0	100%	2.4	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	0.0%	2.59	2.87	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	24	106	29	9	0	100%	2.4	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	0.0%	2.59	2.87	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	10	10	24	106	29	9	0	100%	2.4	27.4%	8.5%	18.9%	0.0%	2.59	1.83	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	271	62	28	2	83%	3.5	15.7%	12.7%	3.1%	0.7%	3.61	3.76	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	271	62	28	2	83%	3.5	15.7%	12.7%	3.1%	0.7%	3.61	3.76	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	62	271	62	28	2	83%	3.5	22.9%	10.3%	12.5%	0.7%	3.61	2.88	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	64	272	78	18	6	95%	3.4	22.2%	8.3%	14.0%	3.2%	4.76	4.03	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	64	272	78	18	6	95%	3.4	22.2%	8.3%	14.0%	3.2%	4.76	4.03	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	64	272	78	18	6	95%	3.4	28.7%	6.6%	22.1%	2.2%	4.76	2.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	9.2%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.49	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	53	225	49	19	6	100%	5.3	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	55	231	52	19	7	100%	5.5	22.7%	8.1%	14.6%	2.8%	4.23	4.14	+0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	56	235	55	18	7	100%	5.6	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	2.8%	4.10	4.01	+0.9
2031	24	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	56	235	56	18	7	100%	5.6	24.0%	7.5%	16.5%	2.8%	4.00	3.92	+1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	55	231	56	17	6	100%	6.1	24.4%	7.4%	17.0%	2.8%	3.92	3.86	+1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	55	233	57	17	6	100%	6.1	24.6%	7.3%	17.3%	2.8%	3.87	3.84	+1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	54	228	56	17	6	100%	6.0	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	2.8%	3.88	3.88	+1.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	51	216	53	16	6	100%	5.7	24.4%	7.5%	16.9%	2.9%	3.93	3.97	+0.9
2036	29	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	47	200	48	16	6	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	3.1%	4.03	4.10	+0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	26	110	24	9	3	100%	5.2	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	2.7%	4.26	4.21	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	40	169	38	14	4	100%	5.7	22.7%	8.1%	14.6%	2.6%	4.11	4.02	+0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	47	198	47	15	5	100%	5.2	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	2.6%	3.98	3.89	+0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	50	211	51	16	5	100%	5.6	24.0%	7.5%	16.5%	2.6%	3.89	3.81	+0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	50	211	51	16	5	100%	5.6	24.4%	7.4%	17.0%	2.5%	3.81	3.75	+0.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	53	16	5	100%	6.4	24.6%	7.3%	17.3%	2.5%	3.76	3.73	+0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	53	16	6	100%	6.4	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	2.6%	3.76	3.76	+0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	49	207	51	16	6	100%	6.1	24.4%	7.5%	16.9%	2.7%	3.81	3.85	+0.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	45	190	46	15	5	100%	5.6	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	2.8%	3.90	3.97	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	409	1726	413	132	45	100%	5.7	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.6%	3.90	3.48	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	202	65	22	100%	5.7	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.6%	3.90	3.48	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		47	43	151	649	123	68	11	91%	3.2	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	1.6%	3.93	3.73	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	57	200	860	163	90	14	91%	3.2	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	1.6%	3.93	3.73	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASan Jose Giants · 57 IPFIP 2.80 → 4.03 (+1.23)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.04%	—	×0.740	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.00%	—	×1.180	8.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Giants · 7 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.66 (+0.58)K% 17.2% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.680	11.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.250	4.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Giants · 48 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.94 (+1.04)K% 27.8% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.680	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.128	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 14 IPFIP 5.53 → 5.99 (+0.46)K% 9.6% → 7.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.59%	—	×0.740	7.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.70%	—	×1.180	16.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.358	×1.300	2.62%

Result: FIP 5.53 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Giants Black · 24 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.87 (+1.01)K% 27.4% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.36%	—	×0.680	18.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.49%	—	×1.250	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.092	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Argenis Cayama (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.16	22.6%	14.5%	164	-0.33	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	87
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	86
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	85
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.75	20.8%	10.0%	256	+0.76	3.99	383	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	81
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	81
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	81
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	81
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	80
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	80
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	52	23.6%	7.8%	1.10	4.07
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*