Argenis Cayama — OGILVIE

Argenis Cayama P San Jose Giants

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 204 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.4 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%17.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$37M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.8M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	24	106	29	9	0	100%	2.4	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	0.0%	2.59	2.87	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	24	106	29	9	0	100%	2.4	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	0.0%	2.59	2.87	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	10	10	24	106	29	9	0	100%	2.4	27.4%	8.5%	18.9%	0.0%	2.59	1.83	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	271	62	28	2	83%	3.5	15.7%	12.7%	3.1%	0.7%	3.61	3.76	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	271	62	28	2	83%	3.5	15.7%	12.7%	3.1%	0.7%	3.61	3.76	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	62	271	62	28	2	83%	3.5	22.9%	10.3%	12.5%	0.7%	3.61	2.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	19	18	64	272	78	18	6	95%	3.4	22.2%	8.3%	14.0%	3.2%	4.76	4.03	—
YTD	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	19	18	64	272	78	18	6	95%	3.4	22.2%	8.3%	14.0%	3.2%	4.76	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	SF	4	3	7	29	5	1	0	75%	1.8	17.2%	3.4%	13.8%	0.0%	3.86	2.08	—
2026	19	A RAW	SF	15	15	57	243	73	17	6	100%	3.8	30.0%	7.0%	23.0%	2.5%	4.87	2.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	66	280	53	28	8	100%	5.5	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	2.8%	4.77	4.67	+0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	70	293	59	27	8	100%	5.3	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	2.7%	4.56	4.44	+0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	73	308	66	26	8	100%	5.6	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	2.7%	4.34	4.20	+0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	76	320	71	26	8	100%	5.4	22.3%	8.0%	14.4%	2.6%	4.17	4.05	+0.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	78	328	75	25	9	100%	5.5	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.6%	4.03	3.94	+0.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	79	332	77	25	9	100%	6.0	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	2.6%	3.94	3.88	+1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	79	332	78	25	9	100%	6.0	23.5%	7.4%	16.1%	2.6%	3.89	3.86	+1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	77	327	77	25	9	100%	6.0	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	2.6%	3.89	3.89	+0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	75	317	74	24	9	100%	5.8	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	2.7%	3.94	3.98	+0.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	72	303	70	24	9	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.9%	15.2%	2.9%	4.04	4.11	+0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	67	285	65	23	9	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	3.1%	4.19	4.29	+0.5
2038	31	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	63	266	59	23	9	100%	6.3	22.4%	8.5%	13.8%	3.3%	4.37	4.49	+0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	33	139	26	14	4	100%	5.5	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	2.5%	4.66	4.56	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	51	215	43	20	5	100%	5.7	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	2.5%	4.45	4.33	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	62	262	56	22	6	100%	5.6	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	2.5%	4.23	4.09	+0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	68	287	64	23	7	100%	5.7	22.3%	8.0%	14.4%	2.4%	4.06	3.94	+0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	72	304	70	23	7	100%	5.5	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.4%	3.92	3.83	+0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	73	308	72	23	7	100%	6.1	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	2.4%	3.83	3.77	+0.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	75	317	74	23	8	100%	6.2	23.5%	7.4%	16.1%	2.4%	3.78	3.75	+0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	74	312	73	23	8	100%	6.2	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	2.4%	3.78	3.78	+0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	71	300	70	23	8	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	2.5%	3.83	3.87	+0.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	68	287	66	23	8	100%	6.2	23.1%	7.9%	15.2%	2.7%	3.92	3.99	+0.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	64	270	61	22	8	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.16	+0.5
2038	31	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	60	253	57	22	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.5%	13.8%	3.1%	4.23	4.35	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	136	769	3248	732	261	83	100%	5.7	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	2.5%	4.02	3.61	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	190	68	22	100%	5.6	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	2.5%	4.02	3.61	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		47	43	151	649	123	68	11	91%	3.2	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	1.6%	3.93	3.73	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	57	200	860	163	90	14	91%	3.2	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	1.6%	3.93	3.73	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Argenis Cayama (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	17.2%	11.2%	2.8%	—	4.43	20.2%	11.0%	209	-0.55	—	—	—
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	89
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	88
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	87
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	87
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	87
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	86
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Regi Grace R 2019 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	16.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	4.23	20.5%	8.8%	86	+0.31	3.44	224	85
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	85
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	85
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	84
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	84
Tomas Cleto R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP	4.13	15.0%	11.3%	1.6%	.233	3.88	15.5%	5.7%	75	-0.25	3.15	117	84
Juan Carela R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP	4.42	17.0%	13.5%	1.9%	.333	4.32	20.8%	9.3%	329	-0.10	4.23	455	84
Carlos Betancourt R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	15.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.293	3.35	19.9%	10.6%	45	-1.12	3.35	188	84
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	83
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	70	22.2%	8.3%	1.07	4.19
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58