Luis Maracara — OGILVIE

Luis Maracara P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 18 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%20.4%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	45	192	52	16	2	91%	4.1	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	1.6%	3.18	3.75	—
2024	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	45	192	52	16	2	91%	4.1	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	1.6%	3.18	3.75	—
2024	16	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	45	192	52	16	2	91%	4.1	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	1.0%	3.18	2.44	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	4	32	163	41	30	2	33%	2.7	17.1%	23.0%	-5.9%	1.7%	9.19	5.50	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	4	32	163	41	30	2	33%	2.7	17.1%	23.0%	-5.9%	1.7%	9.19	5.50	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	12	4	32	163	41	30	2	33%	2.7	25.2%	18.4%	6.7%	1.2%	9.19	4.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	17	15	45	209	59	25	9	88%	2.7	20.2%	14.3%	5.9%	5.8%	6.75	6.40	—
YTD	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	17	15	45	209	59	25	9	88%	2.7	20.2%	14.3%	5.9%	5.8%	6.75	6.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	SD	7	7	17	76	23	5	5	100%	2.4	30.3%	6.6%	23.7%	6.6%	5.94	4.99	—
2026	18	A RAW	SD	10	8	29	133	36	20	4	80%	2.9	27.1%	15.0%	12.0%	3.0%	7.22	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	47	197	42	29	6	100%	5.8	21.2%	14.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.21	5.10	-0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	49	206	45	27	6	100%	5.4	21.8%	13.0%	8.8%	2.8%	4.96	4.82	+0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	51	217	48	26	6	100%	5.7	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	2.8%	4.74	4.61	+0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	54	228	53	24	6	100%	5.4	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	2.7%	4.52	4.37	+0.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	56	236	56	24	6	100%	5.6	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	2.7%	4.32	4.19	+0.5
2032	24	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	57	242	59	23	6	100%	5.7	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	2.6%	4.17	4.07	+0.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	58	245	61	23	6	100%	5.8	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	2.6%	4.06	3.99	+0.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	58	245	61	22	6	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.6%	4.00	3.96	+0.6
2035	27	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	57	241	60	22	6	100%	5.7	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.7%	4.00	4.00	+0.6
2027	19	MLB CTX	SD	4	4	23	97	21	14	3	100%	5.8	21.2%	14.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.25	5.14	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	36	152	33	20	4	100%	5.1	21.8%	13.0%	8.8%	2.9%	5.00	4.86	+0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	43	182	40	21	5	100%	5.4	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	2.8%	4.78	4.65	+0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	48	203	47	22	6	100%	5.3	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.41	+0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	52	220	52	22	6	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	2.7%	4.36	4.23	+0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	54	228	56	22	6	100%	5.4	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	2.7%	4.21	4.11	+0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	55	232	58	21	6	100%	6.1	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	2.7%	4.10	4.03	+0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	55	232	58	21	6	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.00	+0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	54	228	57	21	6	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.04	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	420	1774	422	185	49	100%	5.4	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.7%	4.39	3.92	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	201	88	23	100%	5.4	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.7%	4.39	3.92	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		40	29	123	564	106	87	18	72%	3.1	18.7%	15.5%	3.2%	3.2%	6.07	5.24	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	47	200	917	172	142	29	73%	3.1	18.7%	15.5%	3.2%	3.2%	6.07	5.24	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Maracara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	20.4%	16.9%	2.9%	—	4.84	21.7%	8.7%	147	-0.65	—	—	—
Edgar Isea R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	19	SP-	5.51	19.3%	20.3%	2.7%	.371	5.19	21.4%	-4.1%	98	-0.32	4.50	162	85
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	85
Jesus Rivero R 2021 · 5.42 FIP	18	SP-	5.42	21.7%	22.1%	2.5%	.224	4.35	21.7%	1.5%	117	-1.07	4.09	146	84
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	84
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	83
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	82
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	82
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	82
Rafael Ohashi R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	18	SP-	4.83	21.2%	23.2%	1.1%	.339	5.42	15.9%	2.4%	177	+0.59	4.67	203	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Jaydenn Estanista R 2021 · 4.72 FIP	19	SP-	4.72	18.1%	19.2%	1.3%	.254	5.35	21.0%	2.6%	109	+0.63	4.59	230	80
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	80
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	80
Deivy Mendez R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	19	SP-	4.43	20.3%	20.5%	0.8%	.308	4.98	22.9%	3.4%	81	+0.55	2.84	130	80
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	80
Brailin Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.19 FIP	18	SP-	5.19	15.8%	17.8%	2.1%	.322	4.82	16.8%	2.1%	76	-0.37	4.15	168	80
Alex Santos II R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	19.4%	19.3%	1.2%	.282	6.11	18.9%	4.2%	189	+1.54	3.51	313	79
Yerlin Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.73 FIP	19	SP-	5.73	20.0%	23.6%	2.4%	.378	4.63	19.9%	0.7%	112	-1.10	3.84	244	79
Biembenido Brito R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP	4.64	24.7%	18.5%	2.3%	.301	5.37	18.7%	-1.3%	91	+0.73	3.58	130	79
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	51	23.5%	10.9%	1.05	4.46
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22