Cristian Aray
P
ACL Mariners
Age 19
RHP
5'10" / 155 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152142vR 133
ERA5.92
FIP5.92
K%13.6%
BB%15.8%
K-BB%-2.1%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 11 | 8 | 33 | 138 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 73% | 3.0 | 14.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.98 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 11 | 8 | 33 | 138 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 73% | 3.0 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 4.13 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 11 | 11 | 43 | 175 | 34 | 22 | 1 | 100% | 3.9 | 13.2% | 15.7% | -2.5% | 0.9% | 1.87 | 4.48 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 11 | 11 | 43 | 175 | 34 | 22 | 1 | 100% | 3.9 | 19.4% | 12.6% | 6.9% | 0.6% | 1.87 | 3.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 16 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 12.2% | 15.3% | -3.1% | 1.3% | 3.60 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 14 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 15.8% | -2.1% | 2.9% | 5.92 | 5.92 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.6% | 15.8% | -2.1% | 2.9% | 5.92 | 5.92 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 49 | 206 | 33 | 29 | 4 | — | — | 15.8% | 14.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.73 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.63 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.63 | 5.55 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.63 | 5.17 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 131 | 114 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.63 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 19 | 101 | 419 | 56 | 60 | 7 | 50% | 2.7 | 13.5% | 14.3% | -0.8% | 1.7% | 3.03 | 4.71 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 38 | 200 | 830 | 112 | 119 | 14 | 50% | 2.7 | 13.5% | 14.3% | -0.8% | 1.7% | 3.03 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristian Aray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.92 | 13.6% | 15.8% | 2.9% | — | 5.55 | 15.6% | 1.2% | 25 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Joseph Hernandez R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 18 | SW | 5.37 | 15.6% | 15.0% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.54 | 24.7% | 8.0% | 31 | -0.83 | 4.54 | 260 | 89 |
| Randel Clemente R 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.95 | 14.3% | 21.7% | 2.4% | .270 | 4.58 | 21.8% | -1.8% | 88 | -1.37 | 3.74 | 194 | 87 |
| Sven Schüller R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.92 | 13.2% | 23.4% | 1.8% | .320 | 4.39 | 11.5% | 0.8% | 160 | -1.53 | 3.84 | 247 | 86 |
| Eury Ramos R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.40 | 13.0% | 14.8% | 2.8% | .343 | 7.57 | 14.1% | 0.6% | 29 | +2.17 | 3.25 | 176 | 86 |
| Edwin Rojas R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 19 | SW | 6.04 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 3.5% | .355 | 4.33 | 7.8% | -5.8% | 106 | -1.71 | 4.29 | 137 | 85 |
| Yosber Sanchez R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.6% | 14.9% | 3.3% | .315 | 4.61 | 20.2% | -5.2% | 13 | -0.97 | 3.21 | 182 | 85 |
| Alan Mundo R 2025 · 6.34 FIP | 18 | SW | 6.34 | 12.2% | 18.6% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.90 | 19.2% | 0.1% | 17 | -2.44 | 2.49 | 126 | 85 |
| Anthony Cruz R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.40 | 16.7% | 16.6% | 2.9% | .237 | 4.11 | 18.2% | 5.6% | 180 | -1.29 | 3.26 | 245 | 83 |
| Yeiber Cartaya R 2026 · 6.18 FIP | 19 | SW | 6.18 | 14.4% | 21.1% | 2.9% | .256 | 4.46 | 19.9% | 2.0% | 195 | -1.72 | 4.02 | 274 | 83 |
| Marbin Montijo R 2026 · 6.29 FIP | 19 | SW | 6.29 | 8.1% | 18.6% | 2.8% | .278 | 6.11 | 12.1% | -6.4% | 89 | -0.18 | 4.37 | 110 | 83 |
| Leomar Rosario R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.75 | 15.4% | 26.4% | 1.1% | .282 | 5.18 | 19.6% | -2.4% | 58 | -0.57 | 4.94 | 118 | 82 |
| Vitico Valdez R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.65 | 11.3% | 19.8% | 1.8% | .260 | 4.04 | 14.7% | -2.5% | 43 | -1.61 | 4.04 | 132 | 82 |
| Junior Pina R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.92 | 15.7% | 22.4% | 2.4% | .263 | 6.64 | 9.7% | -20.4% | 26 | +0.72 | 4.72 | 101 | 82 |
| Juan Burgos R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.75 | 15.4% | 13.5% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.43 | 17.7% | 0.8% | 58 | -0.32 | 3.60 | 268 | 82 |
| Marwys Cabrera R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 14.6% | 20.1% | 1.9% | .311 | 5.42 | 13.5% | -4.9% | 28 | -0.04 | 3.68 | 131 | 82 |
| Angel Peralta R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.90 | 15.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 105 | 82 |
| Moises Nolasco R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.49 | 12.4% | 18.2% | 2.0% | .356 | 3.81 | 15.5% | 4.3% | 124 | -1.68 | 3.13 | 154 | 82 |
| Maiker Manuel R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.12 | 12.3% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .329 | 4.59 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 101 | -0.53 | 4.56 | 148 | 82 |
| Juan Perez R 2028 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 82 |
| Joe Barlow R 2027 · 6.15 FIP | 20 | SW | 6.15 | 13.6% | 16.4% | 3.9% | .269 | 3.64 | 29.5% | 10.7% | 116 | -2.51 | 3.04 | 354 | 81 |