Cristian Aray

P ACL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 155 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKSEA	11	11	43	1.87	3.35	19.4%	12.6%	—	K 13.2% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.44
2026	19	ROKSEA	18	0	28	3.81	3.49	18.5%	11.8%	—	K 12.6% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	20	MLBSEA	—	—	0	6.13	6.13	13.3%	17.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSEA	13	0	14	5.80	5.70	15.4%	15.5%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control30Command25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKamdyn Perry (age 18) · Reynardo Cruz (age 20) · Ronny Lopez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 133

ERA6.13

FIP6.13

K%13.3%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%-3.9%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	8	33	138	30	13	3	73%	3.0	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	3.0%	4.13	4.99	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	8	33	138	30	13	3	73%	3.0	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	3.0%	4.13	4.99	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	8	33	138	30	13	3	73%	3.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.2%	4.13	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	43	175	34	22	1	100%	3.9	13.2%	15.7%	-2.5%	0.9%	1.87	4.44	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	43	175	34	22	1	100%	3.9	13.2%	15.7%	-2.5%	0.9%	1.87	4.44	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	11	43	175	34	22	1	100%	3.9	19.4%	12.6%	6.9%	0.6%	1.87	3.35	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	18	0	28	119	22	14	1	0%	1.6	12.6%	14.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	3.81	4.55	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	18	0	28	119	22	14	1	0%	1.6	12.6%	14.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	3.81	4.55	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	18	0	28	119	22	14	1	0%	1.6	18.5%	11.8%	6.7%	0.8%	3.81	3.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.3%	17.3%	-3.9%	2.9%	6.13	6.13	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SEA	27	0	29	121	19	19	3	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.5%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.80	5.70	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	SEA	13	0	14	59	9	9	2	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.5%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.80	5.70	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	60	9	9	2	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.5%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.80	5.32	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	128	128	28	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.5%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.80	5.32	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		40	19	104	432	58	61	7	48%	2.6	13.5%	14.2%	-0.6%	1.6%	3.11	4.65	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	36	200	828	112	117	14	47%	2.6	13.5%	14.2%	-0.6%	1.6%	3.11	4.65	-2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Mariners · 28 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.55 (+1.06)K% 18.5% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.49%	—	×0.680	12.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.250	14.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.84%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Mariners · 43 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.44 (+1.08)K% 19.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.43%	—	×0.680	13.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.57%	—	×1.250	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷0.936	×1.400	0.85%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Mariners · 33 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.99 (+1.34)K% 21.7% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.680	14.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.42%	—	×1.250	11.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.012	×1.400	3.01%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Aray (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.13	13.3%	17.3%	2.9%	—	5.70	15.4%	-0.1%	29	-0.43	—	—	—
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	87
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	85
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	85
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	84
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	83
Eury Ramos R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	19	SW	5.40	13.0%	14.8%	2.8%	.343	7.19	14.1%	0.6%	29	+1.79	3.33	176	83
Jose Garces R 2024 · 7.21 FIP	20	SW	7.21	11.0%	34.2%	1.3%	.277	6.53	15.6%	-0.5%	96	-0.68	3.49	191	83
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	83
Ismael Maldonado R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	20	SU	5.87	9.8%	16.4%	2.8%	.280	6.60	13.5%	-3.6%	89	+0.73	5.87	119	83
Geison Urbaez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	14.1%	18.2%	1.5%	.322	4.71	15.5%	4.7%	112	-0.32	4.04	241	82
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	82
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	82
Yeiber Cartaya R 2023 · 5.38 FIP	20	SW	5.38	16.4%	21.2%	1.8%	.307	4.38	20.4%	3.8%	235	-1.00	4.12	283	82
Josbel Garcia R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	20	SW	5.08	11.8%	19.2%	1.0%	.308	5.57	15.0%	5.4%	67	+0.49	3.89	157	82
Juan Soto R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	8.9%	24.0%	2.3%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.06	102	82
Jesus Tillero R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	18	SP-	5.94	13.3%	18.0%	3.1%	.274	5.23	14.8%	3.8%	129	-0.71	2.26	180	81
Omar Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.16 FIP	19	SW	6.16	13.9%	23.1%	2.4%	.164	5.56	15.4%	0.1%	82	-0.60	2.25	137	81
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	81
David Bracho R 2024 · 5.85 FIP	19	SW	5.85	10.9%	21.6%	1.7%	.263	5.71	17.2%	-1.4%	71	-0.14	4.17	149	81
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	14.4%	16.3%	1.11	5.96
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*