Cristian Aray — OGILVIE

Cristian Aray P ACL Mariners

Age 19 RHP 5'10" / 155 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%13.6%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%-3.5%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	8	33	138	30	13	3	73%	3.0	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	3.0%	4.13	4.99	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	8	33	138	30	13	3	73%	3.0	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	3.0%	4.13	4.99	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	8	33	138	30	13	3	73%	3.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.2%	4.13	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	43	175	34	22	1	100%	3.9	13.2%	15.7%	-2.5%	0.9%	1.87	4.44	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	43	175	34	22	1	100%	3.9	13.2%	15.7%	-2.5%	0.9%	1.87	4.44	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	11	43	175	34	22	1	100%	3.9	19.4%	12.6%	6.9%	0.6%	1.87	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	18	0	28	119	22	14	1	0%	1.6	12.6%	14.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	3.81	4.55	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	18	0	28	119	22	14	1	0%	1.6	12.6%	14.7%	-2.1%	1.2%	3.81	4.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	SEA	18	0	28	119	22	14	1	0%	1.6	18.5%	11.8%	6.7%	0.8%	3.81	3.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SEA	39	0	41	173	27	27	5	0%	1.1	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.9%	5.77	5.68	-0.5
2027	20	MLB CTX	SEA	19	0	20	84	13	13	2	0%	1.1	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.9%	5.77	5.68	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	85	13	13	2	0%	1.1	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.9%	5.77	5.29	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	129	129	20	0%	1.1	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.9%	5.77	5.29	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		40	19	104	432	58	61	7	48%	2.6	13.5%	14.2%	-0.6%	1.6%	3.11	4.65	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	36	200	828	112	117	14	47%	2.6	13.5%	14.2%	-0.6%	1.6%	3.11	4.65	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Aray (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	13.6%	17.1%	2.9%	—	5.68	15.6%	0.2%	41	-0.41	—	—	—
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	93
Randel Clemente R 2021 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	14.3%	21.7%	2.4%	.270	4.60	21.8%	-1.8%	88	-1.39	3.74	214	91
Sven Schüller R 2015 · 5.92 FIP	19	SW	5.92	13.2%	23.4%	1.8%	.320	4.44	11.5%	0.8%	160	-1.48	3.88	247	88
Alan Mundo R 2018 · 6.34 FIP	18	SW	6.34	12.2%	18.6%	3.5%	.317	3.90	19.2%	0.1%	17	-2.44	2.49	126	88
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	86
Marbin Montijo R 2015 · 6.29 FIP	19	SW	6.29	8.1%	18.6%	2.8%	.278	6.11	12.1%	-6.4%	89	-0.18	4.37	110	86
Yeiber Cartaya R 2022 · 5.86 FIP	19	SW	5.86	14.4%	21.1%	2.4%	.256	4.45	19.9%	2.0%	195	-1.41	4.12	283	86
Junior Pina R 2022 · 5.93 FIP	19	SW	5.93	15.7%	22.4%	2.4%	.263	6.65	9.7%	-20.4%	26	+0.72	4.72	115	85
Edwin Rojas R 2015 · 6.04 FIP	19	SW	6.04	10.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.355	4.33	7.8%	-5.8%	106	-1.71	4.29	137	85
Eury Ramos R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	19	SW	5.40	13.0%	14.8%	2.8%	.343	7.19	14.1%	0.6%	29	+1.79	3.33	176	85
Anthony Cruz R 2022 · 5.38 FIP	19	SW	5.38	16.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.237	4.19	18.2%	5.6%	180	-1.19	3.32	272	84
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	84
Moises Nolasco R 2016 · 5.49 FIP	19	SW	5.49	12.4%	18.2%	2.0%	.356	3.81	15.5%	4.3%	124	-1.68	3.13	154	84
Leomar Rosario R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	15.4%	26.4%	1.1%	.282	5.24	19.6%	-2.4%	58	-0.51	4.95	134	84
Vitico Valdez R 2023 · 5.68 FIP	19	SW	5.68	11.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.260	4.04	14.7%	-2.5%	43	-1.64	4.04	132	83
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	82
Cristofer Melendez R 2017 · 5.27 FIP	19	SW	5.27	11.9%	18.4%	1.5%	.287	3.44	24.2%	10.9%	118	-1.83	3.05	276	82
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	82
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	82
Ismael Maldonado R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	20	SU	5.87	9.8%	16.4%	2.8%	.280	6.60	13.5%	-3.6%	89	+0.73	5.87	119	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	14.9%	16.0%	1.11	5.89
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91