Josbel Garcia — OGILVIE

Josbel Garcia P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%18.4%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	0	23	100	15	9	2	0%	2.1	10.2%	11.2%	-1.0%	2.4%	4.70	4.96	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	11	0	23	100	15	9	2	0%	2.1	15.0%	9.0%	6.0%	2.0%	4.70	4.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	14	1	32	133	15	6	1	7%	2.3	7.7%	5.6%	2.0%	1.3%	1.69	3.89	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	14	1	32	133	15	6	1	7%	2.3	7.7%	5.6%	2.0%	1.3%	1.69	3.89	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	14	1	32	133	15	6	1	7%	2.3	11.3%	4.5%	6.8%	0.8%	1.69	3.13	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	5	37	167	30	26	1	33%	2.5	11.8%	19.2%	-7.5%	1.0%	4.58	5.08	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	5	37	167	30	26	1	33%	2.5	11.8%	19.2%	-7.5%	1.0%	4.58	5.08	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	5	37	167	30	26	1	33%	2.5	18.0%	15.6%	2.4%	0.6%	4.58	3.93	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	31	140	23	9	4	0%	1.5	13.2%	7.7%	5.5%	4.7%	6.75	5.52	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	31	140	23	9	4	0%	1.5	13.2%	7.7%	5.5%	4.7%	6.75	5.52	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	31	140	23	9	4	0%	1.5	16.4%	6.4%	10.0%	2.9%	6.75	4.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	27	0	52	224	49	18	7	0%	1.9	15.9%	10.6%	5.3%	4.6%	4.70	5.60	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	27	0	52	224	49	18	7	0%	1.9	15.9%	10.6%	5.3%	4.6%	4.70	5.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	TOR	4	0	7	24	6	0	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	22	A RAW	TOR	23	0	44	200	43	18	7	0%	1.9	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	3.5%	5.48	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	50	0	52	222	44	23	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.73	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	51	0	54	227	48	22	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	54	230	49	22	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	54	230	50	22	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.43	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	22	11	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.73	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	36	0	38	160	34	16	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	42	0	44	186	40	17	5	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	46	0	48	203	44	19	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		148	0	155	655	138	63	19	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.14	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	81	24	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		87	6	175	764	94	85	22	7%	2.0	12.3%	11.2%	1.1%	2.9%	4.48	5.09	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	7	200	875	108	98	26	7%	2.0	12.3%	11.2%	1.1%	2.9%	4.48	5.09	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josbel Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	18.4%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.58	20.8%	10.9%	161	-0.44	—	—	—
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	93
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	90
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	89
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	89
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	89
Logan Lombana R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	16.8%	10.9%	1.8%	.316	4.02	15.4%	8.7%	97	-0.02	3.80	155	88
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	86
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	86
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	86
Brooks Wilson R 2018 · 5.17 FIP	22	SU	5.17	15.8%	10.3%	3.8%	.229	3.11	21.3%	12.5%	131	-2.06	2.92	194	86
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	86
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	85
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	85
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Jose Quezada R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	22	SU	5.31	18.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.219	3.86	22.2%	10.3%	121	-1.45	3.77	188	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	46	20.8%	9.9%	1.13	4.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33