Geison Urbaez

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	18	6	42	3.83	3.24	17.9%	10.6%	—	K 14.0% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.04
2025	25	AATOR	29	4	57	3.18	4.62	16.1%	13.4%	—	K 13.0% · BB 14.8% · FIP 5.29
2026	26	AATOR	19	0	33	6.27	6.31	18.4%	15.3%	—	K 14.9% · BB 16.9% · FIP 6.81
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	1	0	1	6.45	6.45	12.2%	17.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBTOR	15	0	16	6.28	6.32	13.2%	16.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBTOR	18	0	19	6.23	6.30	13.7%	16.5%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMike Hepple (age 26) · Vanny Valenzuela (age 27) · Alex Caldera (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156147vR 139

ERA6.45

FIP6.45

K%12.2%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%-5.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	40	190	38	29	2	18%	2.3	14.1%	18.2%	-4.1%	1.5%	6.58	5.03	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	40	190	38	29	2	18%	2.3	20.0%	15.3%	4.7%	1.1%	6.58	4.03	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	75	326	70	27	9	32%	2.7	16.2%	9.5%	6.8%	3.8%	3.82	5.04	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	9	75	326	70	27	9	32%	2.7	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	2.8%	3.82	3.87	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	6	42	179	32	19	1	33%	2.4	14.0%	13.4%	0.6%	0.8%	3.83	4.04	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	6	42	179	32	19	1	33%	2.4	14.0%	13.4%	0.6%	0.8%	3.83	4.04	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	6	42	179	32	19	1	33%	2.4	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	0.6%	3.83	3.24	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	29	4	57	261	42	35	5	14%	2.0	13.0%	14.8%	-1.7%	2.6%	3.18	5.29	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	29	4	57	261	42	35	5	14%	2.0	13.0%	14.8%	-1.7%	2.6%	3.18	5.29	—
2025	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	29	4	57	261	42	35	5	14%	2.0	16.1%	13.4%	2.7%	1.9%	3.18	4.62	—
2026	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	0	33	163	30	25	7	0%	1.7	14.9%	16.9%	-2.0%	5.2%	6.27	6.81	—
2026	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	0	33	163	30	25	7	0%	1.7	14.9%	16.9%	-2.0%	5.2%	6.27	6.81	—
2026	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	0	33	163	30	25	7	0%	1.7	18.4%	15.3%	3.1%	4.3%	6.27	6.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	12.2%	17.5%	-5.3%	3.2%	6.45	6.45	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	176	23	30	6	0%	1.0	13.2%	16.8%	-3.7%	3.3%	6.28	6.32	-0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	33	0	34	144	20	24	5	0%	1.0	13.7%	16.5%	-2.8%	3.4%	6.23	6.30	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	15	0	16	68	9	11	2	0%	1.1	13.2%	16.8%	-3.7%	3.3%	6.28	6.32	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	18	0	19	80	11	13	3	0%	1.1	13.7%	16.5%	-2.8%	3.4%	6.23	6.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	146	20	24	5	0%	1.1	13.5%	16.6%	-3.2%	3.4%	6.25	5.93	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	115	138	29	0%	1.1	13.5%	16.6%	-3.2%	3.4%	6.25	5.93	-3.2
Career	—	MLE		111	22	247	1119	163	156	32	20%	2.2	14.6%	13.9%	0.7%	2.8%	4.45	5.19	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	18	200	906	132	126	26	20%	2.2	14.6%	13.9%	0.7%	2.8%	4.45	5.19	-4.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 33 IPFIP 5.85 → 6.81 (+0.96)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.40%	—	×0.810	14.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.34%	—	×1.100	16.87%
HR / BF /BF	4.29%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.15%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.85 → 6.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 57 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.29 (+0.80)K% 16.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.09%	—	×0.810	13.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.41%	—	×1.100	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.885	×1.200	2.60%

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 36 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.04 (+0.64)K% 18.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.770	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.69%	—	×1.150	13.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.062	×1.250	0.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 6 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.70 (+0.44)K% 16.0% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.740	11.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.180	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.003	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 58 IPFIP 3.72 → 5.08 (+1.36)K% 22.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.27%	—	×0.740	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.67%	—	×1.180	6.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷0.916	×1.300	4.59%

Result: FIP 3.72 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 17 IPFIP 4.28 → 4.91 (+0.63)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.99%	—	×0.810	15.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.46%	—	×1.100	18.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.027	×1.200	1.48%

Result: FIP 4.28 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 18 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.61 (+0.90)K% 16.5% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.49%	—	×0.740	12.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.71%	—	×1.180	27.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 22 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.42 (+1.32)K% 23.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.66%	—	×0.680	16.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.250	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.01%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Geison Urbaez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.45	12.2%	17.5%	3.2%	—	6.31	13.4%	-3.3%	76	-0.14	—	—	—
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	80
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	80
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	79
Oscar Verdugo R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	27	SU	6.31	10.3%	13.8%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	144	78
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	77
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	76
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	75
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	75
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	74
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	72
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	72
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	71
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	71
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	71
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	71
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	71
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	71
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	71
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	70
Wandi Montout R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	25	SU	5.59	13.4%	18.7%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	103	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	12.9%	17.1%	1.28	6.34
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*