Jesus Tillero
P
Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 20
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 29 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
K%21.6%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 10 | 10 | 31 | 119 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 3.1 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 1.47 | 2.26 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 10 | 10 | 31 | 119 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 3.1 | 28.6% | 5.0% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 1.47 | 1.47 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 9 | 5 | 21 | 97 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 56% | 2.3 | 13.3% | 18.0% | -4.7% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 6.05 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 9 | 5 | 21 | 97 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 56% | 2.3 | 19.6% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 5.23 | 4.55 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 12 | 54 | 243 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 63% | 2.8 | 15.1% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 5.25 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 12 | 54 | 243 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 63% | 2.8 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | 16 | 8 | 70 | 321 | 63 | 28 | 8 | 50% | 4.4 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 6.30 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 29 | 123 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 99 | 444 | 90 | 40 | 12 | — | — | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 5.79 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 31 | 130 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 32 | 136 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 141 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.5% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 146 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 146 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 140 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | LAD | 3 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.92 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.90 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 225 | 950 | 232 | 80 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.64 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 71 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 35 | 175 | 780 | 119 | 87 | 22 | 65% | 3.2 | 15.3% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 40 | 200 | 890 | 136 | 99 | 25 | 65% | 3.2 | 15.3% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Tillero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 96 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 83 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.81 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +0.96 | 3.13 | 286 | 83 |
| Joshua Quezada R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.4% | .293 | 4.27 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 73 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 153 | 82 |
| Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.42 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 2.7% | .275 | 4.69 | 16.3% | 6.9% | 299 | +0.27 | 4.13 | 397 | 82 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .312 | 3.70 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 111 | -0.76 | 3.25 | 266 | 82 |
| Connor Cooke R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 82 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 82 |
| Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2029 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 81 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2029 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 81 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 80 |
| Henry Valencio R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .293 | 5.11 | 11.9% | -11.9% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.48 | 136 | 80 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 80 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.21 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .239 | 6.50 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.29 | 4.21 | 129 | 80 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2029 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 80 |
| Saul Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.69 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .320 | 3.27 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 70 | -0.42 | 2.98 | 110 | 80 |
| Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.14 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .263 | 4.99 | 13.7% | 3.4% | 225 | +0.85 | 3.00 | 310 | 79 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2029 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 79 |
| Colin Fields R 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 33 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 1.11 | 4.17 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |