Jesus Tillero

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#695ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKLAD	9	5	21	5.23	4.55	19.6%	14.4%	—	K 13.3% · BB 18.0% · FIP 5.94
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	12	54	4.50	4.43	21.4%	9.9%	—	K 15.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.50
2026	20	ALAD	18	8	75	6.60	4.05	19.7%	8.7%	—	K 14.6% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.03
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAD	—	—	0	5.14	5.14	16.6%	10.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAD	5	5	28	4.96	4.86	18.9%	9.8%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAD	7	7	42	4.75	4.64	20.2%	9.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 90%

CompsNoah Skirrow (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Henry Valencio (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%16.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	10	10	31	119	34	6	0	100%	3.1	19.4%	6.3%	13.1%	0.0%	1.47	2.26	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	10	10	31	119	34	6	0	100%	3.1	28.6%	5.0%	23.5%	0.0%	1.47	1.47	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	9	5	21	97	19	14	2	56%	2.3	13.3%	18.0%	-4.7%	3.1%	5.23	5.94	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	9	5	21	97	19	14	2	56%	2.3	13.3%	18.0%	-4.7%	3.1%	5.23	5.94	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	9	5	21	97	19	14	2	56%	2.3	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	2.1%	5.23	4.55	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	54	243	52	24	8	63%	2.8	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.50	5.50	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	54	243	52	24	8	63%	2.8	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.50	5.50	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	12	54	243	52	24	8	63%	2.8	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.43	—
2026	20	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	18	8	75	345	68	30	9	44%	4.2	14.6%	10.3%	4.3%	3.4%	6.60	5.03	—
2026	20	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	18	8	75	345	68	30	9	44%	4.2	14.6%	10.3%	4.3%	3.4%	6.60	5.03	—
2026	20	A RAW	Ontario Tower Buzzers	18	8	75	345	68	30	9	44%	4.2	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	2.6%	6.60	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	58	244	46	24	7	100%	5.8	18.9%	9.8%	9.0%	3.0%	4.89	4.79	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	58	244	49	23	7	100%	5.8	20.2%	9.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.57	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	58	244	51	22	7	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.53	4.44	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	54	227	49	20	7	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	54	228	49	20	7	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	53	223	48	19	7	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	+0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	50	212	46	19	7	100%	6.3	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.1%	4.44	4.47	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	46	196	42	18	6	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.54	4.60	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAD	7	7	42	177	37	17	6	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.69	4.78	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	28	118	22	12	4	100%	5.6	18.9%	9.8%	9.0%	3.1%	4.96	4.86	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	42	177	36	16	5	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.3%	11.0%	3.1%	4.75	4.64	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	48	203	43	18	6	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.51	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	48	203	44	18	6	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.51	4.44	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	49	207	45	18	6	100%	6.1	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.42	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	49	207	45	18	6	100%	6.1	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.46	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	47	198	43	18	6	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	44	186	40	17	6	100%	6.3	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.4%	4.62	4.68	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	40	169	35	16	6	100%	5.7	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.6%	4.77	4.86	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	395	1666	352	150	53	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.2%	4.60	4.20	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	76	27	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.2%	4.60	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		56	35	180	804	123	89	24	62%	3.2	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	3.0%	4.94	4.87	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	39	200	892	136	99	27	62%	3.2	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	3.0%	4.94	4.87	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 75 IPFIP 3.97 → 5.03 (+1.06)K% 19.7% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.71%	—	×0.740	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 31 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.81 (+1.25)K% 21.8% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.83%	—	×0.680	14.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.250	9.68%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.187	×1.400	4.98%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 23 IPFIP 4.06 → 5.06 (+1.00)K% 20.8% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.79%	—	×0.740	15.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.87%	—	×1.180	15.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.055	×1.300	2.44%

Result: FIP 4.06 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 21 IPFIP 4.41 → 5.94 (+1.54)K% 19.6% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.59%	—	×0.680	13.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.43%	—	×1.250	18.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷0.942	×1.400	3.06%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL LAD Bautista · 31 IPFIP 1.33 → 2.26 (+0.93)K% 28.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.680	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.04%	—	×1.250	6.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.319	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.33 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Tillero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	16.6%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.60	20.1%	10.7%	173	-0.54	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	89
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	88
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	87
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	87
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	87
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	86
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	86
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	86
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	85
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	85
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	85
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	85
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	84
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	84
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	84
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	84
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	83
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	83
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	52	20.6%	9.2%	1.18	4.61
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*