Jesus Tillero — OGILVIE

Jesus Tillero P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%18.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	10	10	31	119	34	6	0	100%	3.1	19.4%	6.3%	13.1%	0.0%	1.47	2.26	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	10	10	31	119	34	6	0	100%	3.1	19.4%	6.3%	13.1%	0.0%	1.47	2.26	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	10	10	31	119	34	6	0	100%	3.1	28.6%	5.0%	23.5%	0.0%	1.47	1.47	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	9	5	21	97	19	14	2	56%	2.3	13.3%	18.0%	-4.7%	3.1%	5.23	5.94	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	9	5	21	97	19	14	2	56%	2.3	13.3%	18.0%	-4.7%	3.1%	5.23	5.94	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	9	5	21	97	19	14	2	56%	2.3	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	2.1%	5.23	4.55	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	54	243	52	24	8	63%	2.8	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.50	5.50	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	54	243	52	24	8	63%	2.8	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.50	5.50	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	12	54	243	52	24	8	63%	2.8	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	18	8	75	345	68	30	9	44%	4.2	14.6%	10.3%	4.3%	3.4%	6.60	5.03	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	18	8	75	345	68	30	9	44%	4.2	14.6%	10.3%	4.3%	3.4%	6.60	5.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	LAD	18	8	75	345	68	30	9	44%	4.2	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	2.6%	6.60	3.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	77	326	64	36	10	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.85	+0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	81	342	72	34	10	100%	5.8	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.58	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	84	355	77	33	10	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.52	4.41	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	86	364	81	33	10	100%	6.1	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.8%	4.38	4.29	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	87	368	84	32	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.29	4.22	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	87	368	84	32	10	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.20	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	86	363	83	32	10	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.24	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	83	352	80	31	10	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.0%	4.29	4.32	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	80	336	82	28	11	100%	6.1	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	3.1%	4.23	4.18	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	75	316	76	27	11	100%	6.2	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	3.3%	4.31	4.36	+0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	70	295	70	26	10	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.0%	14.8%	3.6%	4.46	4.56	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	65	273	64	26	10	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.8%	4.66	4.79	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	38	160	31	18	5	100%	6.3	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	3.1%	5.00	4.92	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	59	249	52	25	8	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.65	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	71	300	65	28	9	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.48	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	77	325	72	29	10	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.45	4.36	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	80	338	77	30	10	100%	6.2	22.7%	8.7%	13.9%	2.9%	4.36	4.29	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	81	342	78	30	10	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.27	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	82	346	79	30	10	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	79	334	76	30	10	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.36	4.39	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	76	321	79	27	10	100%	5.8	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.25	+0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	71	300	72	26	10	100%	5.9	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	3.5%	4.39	4.44	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	66	279	66	25	10	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.0%	14.8%	3.7%	4.54	4.64	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	61	258	60	24	10	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	4.0%	4.75	4.88	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	841	3551	808	321	113	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	3.2%	4.47	4.07	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	76	27	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	3.2%	4.47	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		56	35	180	804	123	89	24	62%	3.2	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	3.0%	4.94	4.87	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	39	200	892	136	99	27	62%	3.2	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	3.0%	4.94	4.87	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Tillero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	18.3%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.61	20.8%	10.7%	242	-0.52	—	—	—
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	87
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	87
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	87
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	86
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	85
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Eduardo Soriano R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	20	SP-	5.06	16.5%	12.5%	3.2%	.306	4.32	15.1%	-4.5%	29	-0.74	4.32	109	84
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	84
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	83
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	83
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	83
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	83
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	83
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	83
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	83
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	76	22.5%	9.2%	1.18	4.45
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98