Abel Brito — OGILVIE

Abel Brito P Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%18.6%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%-0.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Indians Red	12	12	40	169	33	23	0	100%	3.3	13.3%	17.0%	-3.7%	0.0%	3.63	4.13	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Indians Red	12	12	40	169	33	23	0	100%	3.3	19.5%	13.6%	5.9%	0.0%	3.63	3.18	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	10	7	37	178	41	18	3	70%	3.7	15.7%	12.6%	3.0%	2.6%	6.75	4.79	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	10	7	37	178	41	18	3	70%	3.7	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	1.7%	6.75	3.39	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	36	182	31	30	1	100%	3.0	12.3%	19.7%	-7.3%	0.8%	7.68	4.98	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	36	182	31	30	1	100%	3.0	12.3%	19.7%	-7.3%	0.8%	7.68	4.98	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	36	182	31	30	1	100%	3.0	17.0%	16.5%	0.5%	0.5%	7.68	4.23	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	0	38	190	36	38	3	0%	1.5	14.0%	23.6%	-9.6%	2.4%	6.63	6.24	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	0	38	190	36	38	3	0%	1.5	14.0%	23.6%	-9.6%	2.4%	6.63	6.24	—
2024	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	0	38	190	36	38	3	0%	1.5	18.9%	20.0%	-1.1%	1.6%	6.63	5.23	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CLE	1	1	2	8	2	2	0	100%	2.0	18.6%	18.9%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.92	5.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CLE	6	6	34	144	28	26	4	100%	5.7	19.6%	17.9%	1.7%	2.9%	5.73	5.71	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	15	63	12	11	2	100%	7.5	19.6%	17.9%	1.7%	2.9%	5.73	5.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	15	62	12	11	2	100%	7.3	19.6%	17.9%	1.7%	2.9%	5.73	5.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	150	27	100%	6.0	19.6%	17.9%	1.7%	2.9%	5.73	5.33	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		59	31	151	719	99	132	11	53%	2.6	13.8%	18.3%	-4.5%	1.5%	6.13	5.07	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	41	200	950	131	174	14	53%	2.6	13.8%	18.3%	-4.5%	1.5%	6.13	5.07	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abel Brito (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	18.6%	18.9%	2.9%	—	5.71	19.6%	1.7%	34	-0.21	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	82
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	78
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	78
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	75
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.37	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.24	2.10	346	75
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	74
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	73
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
Elian Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	24	SW	5.60	18.3%	21.9%	2.3%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	109	71
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	71
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	71
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	70
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	70
Octavio Acosta R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	13.8%	16.1%	2.6%	.328	4.03	16.2%	7.5%	245	-1.39	3.88	333	69
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	69
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	69
Jojanse Torres R 2021 · 6.72 FIP	25	SP-	6.72	21.5%	21.2%	5.0%	.312	7.43	16.7%	-1.0%	39	+0.71	2.67	194	69
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	68
Pierce Johnson R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	22.9%	15.7%	3.4%	.321	3.55	24.8%	13.4%	121	-1.48	2.75	593	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	19.2%	18.3%	1.14	5.80
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99