David Bracho — OGILVIE

David Bracho P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%20.8%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	9	8	21	103	18	16	3	89%	2.4	11.9%	19.4%	-7.5%	4.4%	8.86	6.95	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	9	8	21	103	18	16	3	89%	2.4	17.5%	15.5%	1.9%	2.9%	8.86	5.49	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	37	160	28	21	0	100%	3.1	11.9%	16.4%	-4.5%	0.0%	3.68	4.17	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	37	160	28	21	0	100%	3.1	11.9%	16.4%	-4.5%	0.0%	3.68	4.17	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	37	160	28	21	0	100%	3.1	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	0.0%	3.68	3.29	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	10.9%	21.6%	-10.6%	1.7%	5.49	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	10.9%	21.6%	-10.6%	1.7%	5.49	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	16.1%	17.2%	-1.1%	1.1%	5.49	4.63	—
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2025	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	17.2%	18.6%	-1.4%	3.1%	7.23	5.71	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	17.2%	18.6%	-1.4%	3.1%	7.23	5.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	CHC	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	23.2%	15.8%	7.4%	2.4%	7.23	4.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	73	308	68	41	9	100%	5.6	21.9%	13.2%	8.7%	2.9%	5.02	4.90	0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	76	320	73	38	9	100%	5.4	22.8%	11.8%	10.9%	2.9%	4.77	4.63	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	78	328	76	36	9	100%	5.5	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.57	4.45	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	79	332	79	34	9	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.34	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	79	332	79	34	9	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.32	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	77	327	78	34	9	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.36	4.35	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	75	317	75	33	9	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.44	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	72	303	71	32	9	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.57	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	67	285	66	31	9	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.75	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	63	266	61	30	9	100%	6.3	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	3.6%	4.83	4.95	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	36	152	33	20	4	100%	5.1	21.9%	13.2%	8.7%	2.8%	4.96	4.84	0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	55	232	53	27	6	100%	5.5	22.8%	11.8%	10.9%	2.8%	4.71	4.57	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	64	270	63	29	7	100%	5.8	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	2.7%	4.51	4.39	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	69	291	69	30	8	100%	5.8	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.7%	4.37	4.28	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	72	304	73	31	8	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.7%	2.7%	4.30	4.26	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	72	304	73	31	8	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.30	4.29	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	70	31	8	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	2.9%	4.35	4.38	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	68	287	68	31	9	100%	6.2	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.51	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	64	270	63	30	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	3.2%	4.58	4.68	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	58	29	9	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	3.4%	4.76	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	630	2662	623	290	77	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.10	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	92	24	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		56	33	154	709	102	130	16	59%	2.8	14.3%	18.3%	-4.0%	2.3%	6.19	5.47	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	43	200	921	132	168	21	59%	2.8	14.3%	18.3%	-4.0%	2.3%	6.19	5.47	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Bracho (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	20.8%	15.4%	3.0%	—	4.66	22.7%	10.7%	226	-0.64	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	88
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	86
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	85
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	82
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	80
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	79
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	78
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	78
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	78
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	78
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	78
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	78
Luis Rosario R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	17.5%	11.8%	2.8%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	206	77
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	68	23.3%	11.1%	1.16	4.60
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70