David Bracho

P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ACHC	2	0	5	1.69	3.10	13.0%	8.7%	—	K 13.0% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.10
2026	21	ACHC	24	10	71	7.23	4.61	23.2%	15.8%	—	K 17.2% · BB 18.6% · FIP 5.71
2027PROJ	22	MLBCHC	—	—	0	5.78	5.78	18.7%	17.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCHC	5	5	25	5.43	5.29	20.2%	15.0%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCHC	6	6	35	5.13	4.98	21.1%	13.2%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsWilian Bormie (age 22) · Blane Abeyta (age 22) · Radhames Liz (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%18.7%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	9	8	21	103	18	16	3	89%	2.4	11.9%	19.4%	-7.5%	4.4%	8.86	6.95	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	9	8	21	103	18	16	3	89%	2.4	17.5%	15.5%	1.9%	2.9%	8.86	5.49	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	37	160	28	21	0	100%	3.1	11.9%	16.4%	-4.5%	0.0%	3.68	4.17	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	37	160	28	21	0	100%	3.1	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	0.0%	3.68	3.29	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	10.9%	21.6%	-10.6%	1.7%	5.49	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	10.9%	21.6%	-10.6%	1.7%	5.49	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	16.1%	17.2%	-1.1%	1.1%	5.49	4.63	—
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2025	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2026	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	17.2%	18.6%	-1.4%	3.1%	7.23	5.71	—
2026	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	17.2%	18.6%	-1.4%	3.1%	7.23	5.71	—
2026	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	23.2%	15.8%	7.4%	2.4%	7.23	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	17.6%	1.2%	3.0%	5.78	5.78	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	50	213	43	32	6	100%	5.6	20.2%	15.0%	5.3%	3.0%	5.43	5.29	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	50	213	45	28	6	100%	5.6	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.98	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	47	197	43	24	6	100%	5.8	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	2.9%	4.91	4.79	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	46	196	43	24	6	100%	5.8	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.76	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	45	191	42	23	6	100%	5.7	21.9%	12.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	43	182	39	22	6	100%	6.1	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	40	168	36	21	5	100%	5.7	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.95	5.01	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	25	106	21	16	3	100%	5.0	20.2%	15.0%	5.3%	3.0%	5.43	5.29	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	35	148	31	20	4	100%	5.8	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.98	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	38	160	35	19	5	100%	6.3	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	2.9%	4.91	4.79	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	41	173	38	21	5	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.76	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	41	173	38	21	5	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	40	169	37	21	5	100%	5.7	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	37	156	34	19	5	100%	6.2	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.95	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	256	1081	232	136	33	100%	5.8	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	3.0%	4.95	4.53	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	106	26	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	3.0%	4.95	4.53	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		56	33	154	709	102	130	16	59%	2.8	14.3%	18.3%	-4.0%	2.3%	6.19	5.47	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	43	200	921	132	168	21	59%	2.8	14.3%	18.3%	-4.0%	2.3%	6.19	5.47	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 71 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.71 (+1.26)K% 23.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.21%	—	×0.740	17.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.77%	—	×1.180	18.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.58 (+0.48)K% 13.0% → 9.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.740	9.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 20 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.85 (+1.29)K% 16.1% → 10.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.09%	—	×0.680	10.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.24%	—	×1.250	21.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.935	×1.400	1.72%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Cubs Red · 37 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.17 (+0.89)K% 17.5% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.680	11.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.12%	—	×1.250	16.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.090	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Cubs Blue · 21 IPFIP 5.19 → 6.95 (+1.76)K% 17.5% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.48%	—	×0.680	11.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.53%	—	×1.250	19.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷0.935	×1.400	4.36%

Result: FIP 5.19 → 6.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Bracho (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	18.7%	17.6%	3.0%	—	5.03	21.0%	7.5%	148	-0.75	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	88
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	87
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	87
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	86
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	85
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	83
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	82
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	82
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	81
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	81
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	80
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	79
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	79
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	79
Miguel Medrano R 2021 · 5.49 FIP	23	SP-	5.49	17.7%	15.5%	3.5%	.299	6.10	18.1%	-0.5%	50	+0.61	2.73	232	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	46	21.1%	13.3%	1.16	5.09
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*