Kevin Valdez
P
South Bend Cubs
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156147vR 138
ERA6.15
FIP6.15
K%12.0%
BB%17.7%
K-BB%-5.7%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 12 | 11 | 35 | 153 | 51 | 22 | 0 | 92% | 2.9 | 22.7% | 18.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 3.46 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 12 | 11 | 35 | 153 | 51 | 22 | 0 | 92% | 2.9 | 33.3% | 14.4% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 2.06 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 11 | 48 | 200 | 45 | 35 | 3 | 65% | 2.8 | 16.6% | 17.9% | -1.3% | 1.7% | 3.21 | 4.91 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 11 | 48 | 200 | 45 | 35 | 3 | 65% | 2.8 | 22.5% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 3.21 | 4.23 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 14 | 91 | 406 | 72 | 56 | 4 | 67% | 4.3 | 13.3% | 16.1% | -2.8% | 1.3% | 3.84 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 14 | 91 | 406 | 72 | 56 | 4 | 67% | 4.3 | 17.7% | 13.8% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 3.84 | 3.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 16 | 10 | 58 | 251 | 62 | 23 | 7 | 62% | 3.6 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 3.86 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 34 | 50 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 12.0% | 17.7% | -5.7% | 2.6% | 6.15 | 6.15 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 17.7% | -5.7% | 2.6% | 6.15 | 6.15 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 126 | 535 | 96 | 73 | 14 | — | — | 18.0% | 13.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.0% | 17.7% | -5.7% | 2.6% | 6.15 | 5.77 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 41 | 45 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 14.4% | 15.8% | -1.4% | 2.6% | 5.81 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 45 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 15.2% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 5.61 | 5.54 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 46 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.2% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 18 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.4% | 15.8% | -1.4% | 2.6% | 5.81 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 30 | 29 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.8% | 15.2% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 5.61 | 5.54 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 36 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.2% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 127 | 534 | 83 | 82 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 15.3% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.62 | 5.19 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 131 | 130 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 15.3% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.62 | 5.19 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 46 | 232 | 1010 | 169 | 155 | 17 | 70% | 3.5 | 16.8% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.61 | 4.57 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 40 | 200 | 871 | 146 | 134 | 15 | 70% | 3.5 | 16.8% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.61 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.15 | 12.0% | 17.7% | 2.6% | — | 5.59 | 15.5% | 0.1% | 203 | -0.56 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Thurman R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 6.01 | 14.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | .291 | 2.59 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 25 | -3.42 | 2.59 | 237 | 86 |
| Boone Whiting R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 80 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 78 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.30 | 16.1% | 17.9% | 2.4% | .285 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.2% | 137 | -0.92 | 4.13 | 217 | 78 |
| Tanner Hall R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 77 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 77 |
| Ramsey David R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 76 |
| Brayan Romero R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 10.7% | 19.7% | 0.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 164 | 74 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 74 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 73 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2028 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 73 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2027 · 6.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.84 | 10.5% | 13.9% | 5.2% | .241 | 6.16 | 10.8% | -1.8% | 74 | -0.68 | 5.39 | 144 | 73 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | .227 | 4.60 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 142 | -0.73 | 4.60 | 529 | 73 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 73 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 73 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 73 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 72 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 72 |
| Ted Stuka R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 72 |
| John West R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 14.0% | 15.1% | 2.2% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | 161 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 14.6% | 15.9% | 1.03 | 5.77 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |