Kevin Valdez

P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	17	11	48	3.21	4.23	22.5%	17.5%	—	K 16.6% · BB 17.9% · FIP 4.87
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	14	91	3.84	3.93	17.7%	13.8%	—	K 13.3% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.71
2026	24	MIX2 levels	24	18	98	3.96	4.19	23.6%	8.5%	—	K 18.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	—	—	0	5.81	5.81	15.4%	14.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCHC	5	5	28	5.62	5.60	16.7%	13.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCHC	6	6	36	5.53	5.54	17.0%	13.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control30Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Justin Miller (age 24) · Ryan Jensen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%15.4%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%1.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	11	35	153	51	22	0	92%	2.9	22.7%	18.0%	4.7%	0.0%	3.12	3.46	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	12	11	35	153	51	22	0	92%	2.9	33.3%	14.4%	19.0%	0.0%	3.12	2.06	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	65%	2.8	16.6%	17.9%	-1.3%	1.6%	3.21	4.87	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	65%	2.8	22.5%	17.5%	5.0%	1.5%	3.21	4.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	13.3%	16.1%	-2.8%	1.2%	3.84	4.71	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	13.3%	16.1%	-2.8%	1.2%	3.84	4.71	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	17.7%	13.8%	3.9%	1.0%	3.84	3.93	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	4.5%	3.96	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	4.5%	3.96	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	3.6%	3.96	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.4%	14.3%	1.1%	3.3%	5.81	5.81	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	65	274	46	37	9	100%	5.9	16.7%	13.6%	3.0%	3.3%	5.62	5.60	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	57	240	41	32	8	100%	6.3	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.3%	5.53	5.54	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	52	222	38	29	8	100%	5.8	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	3.4%	5.52	5.56	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	48	205	35	27	7	100%	6.1	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.5%	5.59	5.65	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	47	198	37	25	7	100%	5.9	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	3.7%	5.57	5.56	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	28	118	20	16	4	100%	5.6	16.7%	13.6%	3.0%	3.3%	5.62	5.60	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	36	152	26	20	5	100%	6.0	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.3%	5.53	5.54	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	39	165	28	22	6	100%	6.5	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	3.4%	5.52	5.56	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	39	165	28	22	6	100%	6.5	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.5%	5.59	5.65	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	40	169	32	21	6	100%	5.7	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	3.7%	5.57	5.56	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	183	773	134	102	27	100%	6.1	17.4%	13.2%	4.2%	3.5%	5.56	5.20	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	111	30	100%	6.0	17.4%	13.2%	4.2%	3.5%	5.56	5.20	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		74	54	271	1170	198	168	27	73%	3.7	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.3%	3.68	4.75	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	40	200	862	146	124	20	73%	3.7	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.3%	3.68	4.75	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 58 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.74 (+1.04)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.70%	—	×0.770	19.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.16%	—	×1.150	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 39 IPFIP 4.95 → 5.94 (+0.99)K% 21.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.810	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.100	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.95 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 59 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.39 (+0.93)K% 20.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.70%	—	×0.740	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.28%	—	×1.180	15.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.925	×1.300	1.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 32 IPFIP 4.62 → 5.24 (+0.62)K% 12.7% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.67%	—	×0.770	9.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.67%	—	×1.150	16.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.106	×1.250	1.51%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 39 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.87 (+1.08)K% 22.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.42%	—	×0.740	16.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.15%	—	×1.180	17.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷0.957	×1.300	1.65%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 9 IPFIP 6.36 → 8.51 (+2.15)K% 22.9% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.680	15.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.57%	—	×1.250	35.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.36 → 8.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Cubs · 35 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.46 (+1.36)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.38%	—	×1.250	17.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.963	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	15.4%	14.3%	3.3%	—	5.57	16.9%	3.6%	174	-0.24	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	85
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	84
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	83
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	80
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	80
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	80
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	78
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	78
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	78
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	77
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	57	16.9%	13.4%	1.32	5.62
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*