Kevin Valdez — OGILVIE

Kevin Valdez P South Bend Cubs

+0.0 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.9 · 2028

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.2%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%7.0%

IP84

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2028

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4045

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	12	11	35	153	51	22	0	22.7%	18.0%	0.0%	3.12	3.46	+0.6
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	3.21	4.88	+0.0
2025	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	13.3%	16.1%	1.2%	3.84	4.70	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	2	2	7	33	8	4	0	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	CHC	15	15	84	354	62	52	9	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	5.32	5.32	-0.2
2026 Total	24	MLB	CHC	—	—	91	387	70	56	9	18.0%	14.6%	2.4%	5.21	4.91	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	CHC	18	18	97	409	75	55	11	18.2%	13.5%	2.6%	5.15	5.10	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	CHC	19	19	104	439	82	57	12	18.7%	13.0%	2.7%	5.04	5.01	+0.3
2029	27	MLB	CHC	19	19	107	452	86	58	12	18.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.99	4.98	+0.4
2030	28	MLB	CHC	20	20	108	454	86	58	12	18.9%	12.7%	2.7%	4.99	4.99	+0.4
2031	29	MLB	CHC	19	19	105	444	84	57	12	18.8%	12.8%	2.8%	5.02	5.04	+0.3
2032	30	MLB	CHC	19	19	102	430	80	55	12	18.6%	12.9%	2.8%	5.07	5.10	+0.2
2033	31	MLB	CHC	18	18	98	415	76	54	12	18.4%	13.0%	2.9%	5.13	5.17	+0.1
2034	32	MLB	CHC	17	17	94	399	72	52	12	18.1%	13.2%	3.0%	5.21	5.26	-0.0
2035	33	MLB	CHC	16	16	90	381	68	51	12	17.8%	13.3%	3.1%	5.30	5.36	-0.1
2036	34	MLB	CHC	16	16	86	362	63	49	12	17.4%	13.5%	3.2%	5.40	5.47	-0.3
2037	35	MLB	CHC	15	15	81	341	58	47	11	17.1%	13.8%	3.3%	5.51	5.59	-0.4
2038	36	MLB	CHC	14	14	76	319	59	42	11	18.6%	13.2%	3.4%	5.48	5.45	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			52	38	181	792	130	133	8	16.4%	16.8%	1.1%	3.54	4.42	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			58	42	200	877	144	147	9	16.4%	16.8%	1.1%	3.54	4.42	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	—	5.03	18.6%	5.6%	308	-0.29	—	—	—
Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	92
Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	91
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	25	SP-	4.30	18.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.336	5.70	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.40	4.30	144	89
Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	89
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	88
J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	88
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	87
Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	14.5%	12.2%	3.4%	.266	4.02	16.6%	3.9%	169	-1.25	3.56	269	86
Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	85
Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.19	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.14	3.58	327	85
Jacob Cravey R 2025 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	15.7%	12.6%	3.0%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	4.99	176	85
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	85
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	24	SP-	4.68	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.38	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.70	4.68	326	84
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	24	SP-	5.28	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.42	22.2%	10.9%	274	-0.86	3.98	481	84
Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	84
Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP	25	SP-	5.09	15.2%	10.8%	3.5%	.274	4.93	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.16	4.10	218	83
Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	15.2%	15.2%	1.3%	.278	4.35	16.7%	2.4%	83	-0.09	3.67	321	83
Casey Steward R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP-	4.83	15.1%	12.4%	2.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	191	83
M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.66	3.52	395	83
Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.62 FIP	26	SP-	4.62	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	4.95	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.33	4.62	147	83

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.