Kevin Valdez — OGILVIE

Kevin Valdez P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.23

FIP6.23

K%12.0%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-6.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	11	35	153	51	22	0	92%	2.9	22.7%	18.0%	4.7%	0.0%	3.12	3.46	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	12	11	35	153	51	22	0	92%	2.9	33.3%	14.4%	19.0%	0.0%	3.12	2.06	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	65%	2.8	16.6%	17.9%	-1.3%	1.6%	3.21	4.87	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	65%	2.8	16.6%	17.9%	-1.3%	1.6%	3.21	4.87	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	65%	2.8	22.5%	17.5%	5.0%	1.5%	3.21	4.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	13.3%	16.1%	-2.8%	1.2%	3.84	4.71	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	13.3%	16.1%	-2.8%	1.2%	3.84	4.71	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	17.7%	13.8%	3.9%	1.0%	3.84	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	4.5%	3.96	5.21	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	4.5%	3.96	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	16	10	58	251	62	23	7	62%	3.6	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	2.8%	3.86	3.71	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CHC	8	8	39	160	35	12	8	100%	4.9	21.9%	7.5%	14.4%	5.0%	4.12	4.95	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	6	24	3	4	1	100%	5.7	12.0%	18.4%	-6.3%	2.6%	6.23	6.23	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	103	435	100	39	16	—	—	23.0%	9.1%	13.9%	3.6%	4.09	5.27	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	97	409	58	66	11	100%	5.7	14.3%	16.1%	-1.8%	2.6%	5.87	5.77	-0.9
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	97	409	64	63	11	100%	6.0	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.7%	5.65	5.58	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	95	402	64	61	11	100%	6.0	15.9%	15.1%	0.8%	2.7%	5.57	5.55	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	92	390	62	59	11	100%	6.2	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	2.8%	5.58	5.61	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	88	372	59	57	11	100%	5.9	15.7%	15.3%	0.4%	3.0%	5.67	5.74	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	83	350	54	55	11	100%	5.9	15.4%	15.6%	-0.2%	3.2%	5.82	5.91	-0.9
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	42	177	25	29	5	100%	6.0	14.3%	16.1%	-1.8%	2.6%	5.87	5.77	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	64	270	42	42	7	100%	5.8	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.7%	5.65	5.58	-0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	74	312	50	47	9	100%	6.2	15.9%	15.1%	0.8%	2.7%	5.57	5.55	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	78	329	53	50	9	100%	6.0	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	2.8%	5.58	5.61	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	77	325	51	50	10	100%	5.9	15.7%	15.3%	0.4%	3.0%	5.67	5.74	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	75	317	49	49	10	100%	6.2	15.4%	15.6%	-0.2%	3.2%	5.82	5.91	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	409	1727	269	266	50	100%	6.0	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.9%	5.68	5.31	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	132	130	24	100%	6.0	15.6%	15.4%	0.2%	2.9%	5.68	5.31	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		74	54	271	1170	198	168	27	73%	3.7	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.3%	3.68	4.75	-5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	40	200	862	146	124	20	73%	3.7	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.3%	3.68	4.75	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.23	12.0%	18.4%	2.6%	—	5.63	15.3%	-0.3%	289	-0.60	—	—	—
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	83
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	83
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	79
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	77
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	77
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	75
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	74
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	74
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	74
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	73
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	73
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	72
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	71
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	71
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	70
Braden Webb R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP	5.44	15.0%	19.7%	2.0%	.239	5.15	25.2%	10.4%	49	-0.29	4.48	308	70
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	70
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	69
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	89	15.1%	15.8%	1.09	5.75
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14