Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL PIT Gold | 12 | 9 | 30 | 138 | 32 | 15 | 0 | 75% | 2.5 | 15.8% | 13.6% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 5.16 | 3.49 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL PIT Gold | 12 | 9 | 30 | 138 | 32 | 15 | 0 | 75% | 2.5 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 5.16 | 2.46 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 0 | 18 | 98 | 19 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 13.2% | 26.8% | -13.6% | 3.0% | 8.00 | 7.02 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 0 | 18 | 98 | 19 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.4% | 21.4% | -2.0% | 2.0% | 8.00 | 5.93 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 3 | 24 | 124 | 17 | 21 | 0 | 30% | 2.4 | 9.3% | 21.2% | -11.8% | 0.0% | 8.62 | 4.99 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 3 | 24 | 124 | 17 | 21 | 0 | 30% | 2.4 | 13.7% | 16.9% | -3.2% | 0.0% | 8.62 | 4.31 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 12 | 5 | 24 | 117 | 19 | 32 | 1 | 42% | 2.0 | 11.0% | 34.2% | -23.1% | 1.4% | 5.32 | 7.28 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 12 | 5 | 24 | 117 | 19 | 32 | 1 | 42% | 2.0 | 16.2% | 27.4% | -11.1% | 0.9% | 5.32 | 6.10 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 50 | 218 | 42 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.6% | 14.4% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 3.40 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 50 | 218 | 42 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 6.9% | 1.4% | 3.40 | 3.82 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 27 | 0 | 33 | 165 | 32 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.9% | 16.7% | -1.8% | 8.3% | 9.00 | 8.53 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PIT | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 26 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 17.3% | -3.7% | 2.9% | 6.10 | 6.10 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.6% | 17.3% | -3.7% | 2.9% | 6.10 | 6.10 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 78 | 353 | 58 | 57 | 16 | — | — | 16.3% | 16.0% | 0.3% | 4.6% | 7.33 | 7.13 | -2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.6% | 17.3% | -3.7% | 2.9% | 6.10 | 5.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 31 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 15.3% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.63 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 35 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 5.47 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 37 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 15.3% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 5.47 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 70 | 57 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 4.97 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 120 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 17 | 179 | 860 | 116 | 170 | 23 | 15% | 1.6 | 13.4% | 19.8% | -6.4% | 2.7% | 6.15 | 5.94 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 19 | 200 | 963 | 129 | 191 | 26 | 15% | 1.6 | 13.4% | 19.8% | -6.4% | 2.7% | 6.15 | 5.94 | -1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Garces (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.10 | 13.6% | 17.3% | 2.9% | — | 5.38 | 17.1% | 2.9% | 142 | -0.72 | — | — | — |
| Noah Takacs R 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.82 | 12.5% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .301 | 5.77 | 13.8% | -2.3% | 83 | -0.05 | 5.15 | 122 | 92 |
| Cory Thompson R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.42 | 15.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.28 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 131 | -1.14 | 3.48 | 218 | 89 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.49 | 13.0% | 15.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 3.96 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 152 | -1.53 | 3.52 | 171 | 88 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.94 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.31 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 91 | -1.63 | 2.79 | 144 | 86 |
| Alec Kenilvort R 2027 · 6.05 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.05 | 15.1% | 17.0% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.95 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 85 | -2.10 | 2.89 | 109 | 85 |
| Salvador Justo R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.20 | 12.8% | 17.3% | 1.8% | .328 | 4.81 | 15.7% | 4.6% | 107 | -0.39 | 4.05 | 218 | 85 |
| Brett Hanewich R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.18 | 15.9% | 17.6% | 2.2% | .372 | 4.32 | 20.3% | 2.8% | 108 | -0.86 | 4.25 | 134 | 84 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 84 |
| Bryce McGowan R 2026 · 5.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.98 | 17.0% | 22.9% | 2.6% | .368 | 4.35 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 145 | -1.63 | 3.59 | 178 | 84 |
| Fabian Anguamea R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.91 | 16.6% | 15.2% | 2.3% | .295 | 4.45 | 15.8% | 1.8% | 96 | -0.46 | 3.94 | 164 | 84 |
| Carlton Perkins R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.94 | 14.1% | 19.5% | 2.9% | .254 | 4.79 | 21.3% | 3.3% | 12 | -1.15 | 4.34 | 111 | 84 |
| Jonathan Guzman R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.09 | 15.9% | 17.7% | 2.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 83 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2027 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 83 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2028 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 83 |
| Jackson Rose R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.32 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .267 | 4.58 | 23.5% | 16.5% | 56 | -0.74 | 3.55 | 147 | 83 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.51 | 18.3% | 22.6% | 2.0% | .309 | 3.28 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 189 | -2.23 | 3.00 | 318 | 82 |
| Justin Militello R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 6.03 | 13.5% | 18.7% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.11 | 100 | 82 |
| Tommy McCollum R 2026 · 6.22 FIP | 22 | SU | 6.22 | 17.1% | 27.2% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.75 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 112 | -2.47 | 2.90 | 200 | 82 |
| Leonardo Rodriguez R 2027 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.60 | 12.6% | 16.3% | 2.7% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 142 | 82 |
| Yunior Thibo R 2027 · 6.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.41 | 11.5% | 15.8% | 4.1% | .312 | 4.77 | 15.6% | -1.0% | 95 | -1.64 | 4.38 | 110 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 16.3% | 14.9% | 1.10 | 5.64 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |