Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 24 | 3 | 58 | 289 | 60 | 30 | 0 | 12% | 2.4 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 6.36 | 3.55 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 24 | 3 | 58 | 289 | 60 | 30 | 0 | 12% | 2.4 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 6.36 | 2.58 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 23 | 2 | 56 | 246 | 68 | 18 | 2 | 9% | 2.4 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 4.20 | 3.30 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 23 | 2 | 56 | 246 | 68 | 18 | 2 | 9% | 2.4 | 27.6% | 7.3% | 20.3% | 0.8% | 4.20 | 2.09 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 35 | 0 | 44 | 214 | 37 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 17.7% | -4.4% | 3.8% | 8.45 | 6.33 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 35 | 0 | 44 | 214 | 37 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.3% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 8.45 | 5.46 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 54 | 250 | 69 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 19.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.64 | 4.56 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 54 | 250 | 69 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 16.0% | 11.6% | 1.2% | 3.64 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 54 | 0 | 61 | 269 | 53 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 4.11 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 54 | 0 | 61 | 269 | 53 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 4.11 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 0 | 18 | 77 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 4.1% | 5.86 | 4.40 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 872 | 204 | 68 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 4.1% | 5.86 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 181 | 5 | 273 | 1268 | 215 | 190 | 16 | 3% | 1.5 | 16.9% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 5.21 | 4.26 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 4 | 200 | 929 | 157 | 139 | 12 | 3% | 1.5 | 16.9% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 5.21 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edgar Navarro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.55 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 24 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 86 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 84 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 82 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 81 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 81 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 81 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 80 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 80 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 80 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 80 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 80 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .350 | 5.85 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.16 | 4.26 | 258 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 1.13 | 4.46 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |