Johnathan Lavallee
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 240 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%9.9%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 16 | 3 | 34 | 146 | 29 | 18 | 0 | 15.9% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 4.28 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 30 | 0 | 42 | 203 | 47 | 32 | 6 | 17.1% | 18.6% | 3.9% | 7.78 | 6.16 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 40 | 0 | 50 | 205 | 69 | 27 | 3 | 26.2% | 14.9% | 1.7% | 3.44 | 3.71 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 28 | 0 | 32 | 151 | 38 | 25 | 3 | 20.4% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 6.19 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 4 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 22.8% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 38 | 159 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 22.9% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 22.6% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 3 | 165 | 736 | 152 | 122 | 15 | 20.6% | 16.5% | 2.1% | 5.13 | 4.61 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 4 | 200 | 892 | 184 | 148 | 18 | 20.6% | 16.5% | 2.1% | 5.13 | 4.61 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johnathan Lavallee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 22.8% | 12.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.72 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 95 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 92 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 91 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 87 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 86 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 84 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 82 |
| Kyle Hill R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.93 | 23.6% | 12.2% | 2.3% | .319 | 5.38 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 35 | +1.45 | 3.62 | 156 | 82 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 82 |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 81 |
| Layne Henderson R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.01 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .277 | 4.54 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 82 | +0.53 | 3.91 | 233 | 81 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Derek Eitel R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 81 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.94 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.64 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.70 | 3.84 | 272 | 81 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .282 | 4.71 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.45 | 2.59 | 233 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.