Johnathan Lavallee

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	40	0	50	3.44	2.74	33.7%	13.2%	—	K 26.2% · BB 14.9% · FIP 3.72
2025	25	AATOR	28	0	32	6.19	4.29	25.2%	16.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 18.2% · FIP 5.16
2026	26	MIX2 levels	43	1	63	4.02	3.55	26.3%	9.5%	—	K 21.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.16
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	1	0	1	4.80	4.80	20.9%	11.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCIN	10	0	11	4.80	4.84	21.0%	11.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJoe Colón J (age 27) · Cole McDonald (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%20.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	2	9	3	0	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	0.29	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	2	9	3	0	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	0.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	34	146	29	18	0	19%	2.1	15.9%	17.6%	-1.7%	0.0%	4.28	3.99	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	3	34	146	29	18	0	19%	2.1	19.9%	12.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.28	2.98	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	30	0	42	203	47	32	6	0%	1.4	17.1%	18.6%	-1.5%	3.9%	7.78	6.17	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	30	0	42	203	47	32	6	0%	1.4	23.2%	15.8%	7.4%	3.0%	7.78	5.02	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	205	69	27	3	0%	1.2	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.7%	3.44	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	205	69	27	3	0%	1.2	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.7%	3.44	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	50	205	69	27	3	0%	1.2	33.7%	13.2%	20.5%	1.5%	3.44	2.74	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	28	0	32	151	38	25	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	18.2%	2.2%	2.7%	6.19	5.16	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	28	0	32	151	38	25	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	18.2%	2.2%	2.7%	6.19	5.16	—
2025	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	28	0	32	151	38	25	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	16.6%	8.6%	2.0%	6.19	4.29	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	63	262	69	25	7	2%	1.5	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.02	4.16	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	63	262	69	25	7	2%	1.5	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.02	4.16	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	63	262	69	25	7	2%	1.5	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.7%	4.02	3.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.4%	9.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	27	0	29	121	25	14	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	93	19	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		158	4	222	976	202	146	24	3%	1.4	20.7%	15.0%	5.7%	2.4%	4.95	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	4	200	881	182	132	21	3%	1.4	20.7%	15.0%	5.7%	2.4%	4.95	4.58	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 43 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.21 (+0.84)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.18%	—	×0.810	26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.75%	—	×1.100	6.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 19 IPFIP 5.88 → 6.03 (+0.15)K% 14.8% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.77%	—	×0.860	12.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.05%	—	×0.900	15.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.88 → 6.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 32 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.16 (+1.00)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.17%	—	×0.810	20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.56%	—	×1.100	18.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷0.885	×1.200	2.69%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 38 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.60 (+1.08)K% 35.5% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.53%	—	×0.770	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.150	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.062	×1.250	2.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 12 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.06 (+0.72)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.30%	—	×0.810	22.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.75%	—	×1.100	22.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.145	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 42 IPFIP 4.76 → 6.17 (+1.41)K% 23.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.15%	—	×0.740	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.76%	—	×1.180	18.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷0.976	×1.300	3.94%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 4.76 → 6.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 24 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.99 (+0.81)K% 21.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.50%	—	×0.740	15.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.95%	—	×1.180	17.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Twins · 9 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.03 (+0.58)K% 15.4% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.680	10.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.13%	—	×1.250	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.282	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnathan Lavallee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	20.9%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.0%	9.7%	29	+0.04	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	88
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	86
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	85
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	84
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	84
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	83
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	21.0%	11.3%	1.18	4.80
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*