Johnathan Lavallee

Johnathan Lavallee P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%22.2%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	2	9	3	0	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	0.29	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	2	9	3	0	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	0.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	34	146	29	18	0	19%	2.1	15.9%	17.6%	-1.7%	0.0%	4.28	3.99	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	3	34	146	29	18	0	19%	2.1	19.9%	12.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.28	2.98	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	30	0	42	203	47	32	6	0%	1.4	17.1%	18.6%	-1.5%	3.9%	7.78	6.17	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	30	0	42	203	47	32	6	0%	1.4	17.1%	18.6%	-1.5%	3.9%	7.78	6.17	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	30	0	42	203	47	32	6	0%	1.4	23.2%	15.8%	7.4%	3.0%	7.78	5.02	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	205	69	27	3	0%	1.2	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.7%	3.44	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	205	69	27	3	0%	1.2	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.7%	3.44	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	50	205	69	27	3	0%	1.2	33.7%	13.2%	20.5%	1.5%	3.44	2.74	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	28	0	32	151	38	25	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	18.2%	2.2%	2.7%	6.19	5.16	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	28	0	32	151	38	25	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	18.2%	2.2%	2.7%	6.19	5.16	—
2025	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	28	0	32	151	38	25	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	16.6%	8.6%	2.0%	6.19	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	43	1	63	262	69	25	7	2%	1.5	21.4%	9.4%	12.1%	3.1%	4.02	4.17	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	43	1	63	262	69	25	7	2%	1.5	21.4%	9.4%	12.1%	3.1%	4.02	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CIN	31	0	43	174	56	10	4	0%	1.4	32.2%	5.7%	26.4%	2.3%	2.70	2.37	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CIN	12	1	19	88	13	15	3	8%	1.6	14.8%	17.0%	-2.3%	3.4%	6.98	5.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	60	255	57	39	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.3%	7.0%	2.9%	5.13	5.14	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	56	0	59	248	55	37	8	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.13	5.17	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	22	0	23	97	22	15	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.3%	7.0%	2.9%	5.13	5.14	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	33	0	35	148	33	22	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	15.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.13	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	58	244	54	37	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.2%	7.1%	3.0%	5.13	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	128	24	0%	1.1	22.3%	15.2%	7.1%	3.0%	5.13	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		158	4	222	976	202	146	24	3%	1.4	20.7%	15.0%	5.7%	2.4%	4.95	4.58	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	4	200	881	182	132	21	3%	1.4	20.7%	15.0%	5.7%	2.4%	4.95	4.58	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnathan Lavallee (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.2%	16.0%	2.9%	—	5.15	22.3%	7.1%	119	-0.04	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	81
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	81
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	22.3%	15.3%	1.14	5.14
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91