Chay Yeager — OGILVIE

Chay Yeager P Vancouver Canadians

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2028

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.7%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.3%

IP55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	8	34	8	2	0	—	—	—	2.16	—	—
2024	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	42	0	54	241	41	33	6	13.1%	15.7%	2.9%	5.50	5.58	-0.4
2025	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	42	1	56	220	64	20	5	22.8%	10.3%	3.1%	2.75	4.18	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TOR	55	—	55	233	50	24	7	21.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.67	4.67	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TOR	56	—	56	239	53	23	7	22.4%	9.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.50	+0.3
2028	25	MLB	TOR	57	—	57	242	55	23	7	22.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.46	4.40	+0.4
2029	26	MLB	TOR	57	—	57	242	56	22	7	23.1%	9.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.38	+0.4
2030	27	MLB	TOR	57	—	57	240	55	22	7	23.1%	9.3%	3.0%	4.39	4.38	+0.4
2031	28	MLB	TOR	56	—	56	236	54	22	7	23.1%	9.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	TOR	55	—	55	231	53	22	7	22.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+0.3
2033	30	MLB	TOR	53	—	53	224	51	21	7	22.7%	9.6%	3.2%	4.48	4.52	+0.3
2034	31	MLB	TOR	51	—	51	216	49	21	7	22.5%	9.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.59	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	TOR	49	—	49	207	46	20	7	22.2%	9.8%	3.3%	4.63	4.68	+0.2
2036	33	MLB	TOR	47	—	47	198	43	20	7	21.9%	10.0%	3.4%	4.72	4.78	+0.1
2037	34	MLB	TOR	45	—	45	188	41	19	7	21.6%	10.2%	3.5%	4.82	4.89	+0.0
2038	35	MLB	TOR	42	—	42	177	38	18	6	21.2%	10.4%	3.6%	4.93	5.01	-0.0
2039	36	MLB	TOR	39	—	39	166	34	18	6	20.7%	10.7%	3.8%	5.06	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			90	1	118	495	90	63	14	18.1%	12.6%	2.8%	3.97	4.70	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			153	2	200	839	153	107	24	18.1%	12.6%	2.8%	3.97	4.70	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chay Yeager (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.7%	10.4%	3.1%	—	4.43	22.8%	13.3%	171	-0.24	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	23.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.312	5.10	22.3%	9.9%	93	+0.87	4.23	152	97
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	93
Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	21.9%	11.5%	2.3%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.20	3.30	218	91
Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	24	SW	3.78	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.47	2.87	223	90
Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	90
Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	24	SW	4.42	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.22	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.80	4.42	121	90
Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	89
Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SW	4.80	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.03	3.51	140	89
William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	89
Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	20.6%	10.4%	2.2%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.03	3.40	134	89
Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	24	SW	4.04	22.2%	9.8%	2.9%	.353	4.76	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.72	4.04	106	89
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	89
Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	89
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	21.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.284	3.50	18.7%	9.0%	167	-0.40	3.06	230	89
Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	88
Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SW	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.70	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.12	3.58	539	88
Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	23	SW	3.71	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.53	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.82	2.08	276	88
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	23	SW	4.93	21.2%	11.0%	4.0%	.276	5.14	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.21	4.24	469	88
Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	23	SW	4.03	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.52	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.51	2.48	281	88
Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.24	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.65	2.57	304	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.0M
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$4M