Chay Yeager
P
Vancouver Canadians
Age 23
RHP
5'10" / 180 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
K%21.4%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.5% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 1.86 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.5% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 1.90 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 42 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 41 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.1% | 15.7% | -2.6% | 2.8% | 5.50 | 5.51 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 42 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 41 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.0% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 5.50 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 56 | 220 | 64 | 20 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 2.75 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 56 | 220 | 64 | 20 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 29.1% | 9.1% | 20.0% | 2.3% | 2.75 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 81 | 47 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 89 | 44 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 94 | 42 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 95 | 41 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 94 | 41 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 76 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 80 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 242 | 0 | 254 | 1073 | 256 | 115 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.16 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 90 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 90 | 1 | 118 | 495 | 90 | 63 | 15 | 1% | 1.3 | 18.1% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.80 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 2 | 200 | 839 | 152 | 106 | 25 | 1% | 1.3 | 18.1% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chay Yeager (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 21.4% | 12.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.57 | 23.6% | 12.8% | 279 | -0.41 | — | — | — |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 87 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 86 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 86 |
| Ralston Cash R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.78 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .240 | 3.92 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 185 | -0.86 | 3.03 | 242 | 86 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 85 |
| Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 85 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .310 | 4.02 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 110 | -0.53 | 2.36 | 229 | 85 |
| Matt Lollis R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 85 |
| Kelvin Ramirez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | .307 | 4.97 | 21.3% | 2.2% | 89 | +0.47 | 3.36 | 219 | 85 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 85 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 85 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 84 |
| Jhondaniel Medina R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.54 | 19.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .261 | 5.50 | 19.3% | 4.4% | 35 | +0.96 | 4.45 | 167 | 84 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 84 |
| Matt Frawley R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.21 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 139 | 84 |
| Joe Vogatsky R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.42 | 19.0% | 13.3% | 4.1% | .319 | 4.82 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 51 | -0.60 | 4.82 | 120 | 84 |
| Cody Tucker R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 84 |
| Matt Keating R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.13 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 4.2% | .224 | 4.07 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 73 | -1.06 | 3.39 | 208 | 84 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 84 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .350 | 3.78 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.38 | 2.79 | 164 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 92 | 23.3% | 11.1% | 1.22 | 4.69 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |