Zach Jackson — OGILVIE

Zach Jackson P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA4.74

FIP5.30

K%25.2%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2020

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p8528.7%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB+2.1

SL-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	51	211	68	26	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	14.3%	10.2%	1.4%	2.47	3.60	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	51	211	68	26	2	0%	1.2	32.2%	12.3%	19.9%	0.9%	2.47	2.47	—
2018	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	0	62	263	75	48	2	0%	1.4	23.1%	20.1%	3.0%	1.0%	2.47	4.22	—
2018	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	0	62	263	75	48	2	0%	1.4	28.5%	18.3%	10.3%	0.8%	2.47	3.42	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	46	0	68	288	68	34	10	0%	1.5	20.8%	12.4%	8.4%	3.8%	3.97	5.01	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	46	0	68	288	68	34	10	0%	1.5	23.6%	11.8%	11.8%	3.5%	3.97	4.51	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	28	114	47	13	1	0%	1.1	34.2%	12.3%	21.9%	1.0%	2.57	2.33	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	28	114	47	13	1	0%	1.1	41.2%	11.4%	29.8%	0.9%	2.57	1.60	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	54	0	48	202	67	30	1	0%	0.9	33.2%	14.9%	18.3%	0.5%	3.00	2.48	+1.2
2022	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	54	0	48	202	67	30	1	0%	0.9	33.2%	14.9%	18.3%	0.5%	3.00	2.45	+1.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	20	88	27	10	3	0%	1.0	28.7%	12.5%	16.2%	1.4%	3.15	3.01	+0.4
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	20	88	27	10	3	0%	1.0	28.7%	12.5%	16.2%	1.4%	3.15	3.01	+0.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	20	88	27	10	3	0%	1.0	30.7%	11.4%	19.3%	3.4%	3.15	3.85	+0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	39	196	53	47	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	22.2%	-1.2%	2.6%	7.55	5.56	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	39	196	53	47	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	22.2%	-1.2%	2.6%	7.55	5.56	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	39	196	53	47	6	0%	1.0	27.0%	24.0%	3.1%	3.1%	7.55	5.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	0	66	282	90	40	2	0%	0.9	31.9%	14.2%	17.7%	0.7%	2.86	2.58	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	OAK	4	0	4	17	4	3	1	0%	1.0	25.2%	18.0%	7.2%	3.0%	4.74	5.30	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	OAK	46	0	49	206	50	36	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	17.5%	6.7%	3.3%	5.13	5.45	-0.5
2028	33	MLB MLE	OAK	43	0	45	189	44	33	7	0%	1.0	23.3%	17.4%	6.0%	3.5%	5.41	5.65	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	OAK	17	0	18	76	18	13	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	17.5%	6.7%	3.3%	5.13	5.45	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	OAK	24	0	25	106	25	18	4	0%	1.0	23.3%	17.4%	6.0%	3.5%	5.41	5.65	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	0	109	462	133	71	8	0%	1.0	28.7%	15.5%	13.3%	1.8%	3.82	3.60	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		209	0	200	851	245	131	15	0%	1.0	28.7%	15.5%	13.3%	1.8%	3.82	3.60	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		272	0	317	1365	345	217	25	0%	1.2	25.2%	15.9%	9.3%	1.8%	3.55	3.99	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	0	200	860	217	137	16	0%	1.2	25.2%	15.9%	9.3%	1.8%	3.55	3.99	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	25.2%	18.0%	3.0%	—	5.55	23.8%	6.4%	94	+0.25	—	—	—
Adam Ottavino R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	25.9%	15.2%	2.9%	.296	2.60	33.3%	22.0%	162	-1.84	2.10	488	77
Dan Winkler R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	31	SU	4.76	21.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.233	3.87	24.4%	10.4%	46	-0.89	2.40	231	72
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	71
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	70
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	69
Parker Markel R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	31	SU	4.47	25.5%	15.5%	2.9%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	266	69
Brad Boxberger R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	31	SU	4.46	22.1%	13.9%	2.7%	.293	3.44	27.6%	18.2%	147	-1.02	3.01	363	69
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	68
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	67
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2021 · 5.48 FIP	30	SU	5.48	19.6%	19.2%	2.9%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	132	67
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	67
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	66
Blake Treinen R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	31	SU	4.98	22.2%	13.5%	3.7%	.302	2.60	27.3%	19.4%	98	-2.38	1.53	547	66
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	65
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	64
AJ Ramos R 2018 · 5.02 FIP	31	SU	5.02	25.0%	17.0%	3.4%	.292	4.60	27.3%	16.6%	53	-0.42	2.55	266	63
Jackson Rees R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	29	SU	5.19	22.9%	21.1%	2.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	1.90	103	63
Tyler Thornburg R 2019 · 6.31 FIP	30	SU	6.31	23.1%	14.3%	6.1%	.330	3.83	17.5%	6.3%	33	-2.48	2.56	301	63
Arcenio Leon R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	30	SU	4.42	18.5%	13.7%	2.1%	.203	3.61	21.4%	13.3%	18	-0.81	3.00	115	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	24.3%	17.7%	1.26	5.08
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99