Zach Jackson
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 124
ERA4.86
FIP5.51
K%25.9%
BB%20.2%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3093.1
Whiff%
p6527.7%
K%
p8528.7%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
FB+2.1
SL-1.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 51 | 211 | 68 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 14.3% | 10.2% | 1.6% | 2.47 | 3.70 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 51 | 211 | 68 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.2% | 12.3% | 19.9% | 0.9% | 2.47 | 2.47 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 43 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 75 | 48 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 20.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2.47 | 4.26 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 43 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 75 | 48 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.5% | 18.3% | 10.3% | 0.8% | 2.47 | 3.42 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 46 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 68 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 3.97 | 5.01 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 46 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 68 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 3.97 | 4.51 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 28 | 114 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 12.3% | 21.9% | 1.1% | 2.57 | 2.37 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 28 | 114 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 41.2% | 11.4% | 29.8% | 0.9% | 2.57 | 1.60 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 54 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 67 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.2% | 14.9% | 18.3% | 0.5% | 3.00 | 2.46 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 54 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 67 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.2% | 14.9% | 18.3% | 0.5% | 3.00 | 2.45 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 20 | 88 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 1.3% | 3.15 | 2.97 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 20 | 88 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.7% | 11.4% | 19.3% | 3.4% | 3.15 | 3.85 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 39 | 196 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 25.9% | -3.7% | 2.6% | 7.55 | 5.92 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 39 | 196 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 24.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 7.55 | 5.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 58 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 20.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 51 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 19.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.29 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.57 | 5.83 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 19 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 19.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.29 | 5.65 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.57 | 5.83 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 0 | 109 | 462 | 134 | 75 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 3.88 | 3.67 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 209 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 247 | 138 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 3.88 | 3.67 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 272 | 0 | 317 | 1365 | 347 | 224 | 26 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 16.4% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 3.55 | 4.06 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 860 | 219 | 141 | 16 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 16.4% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 3.55 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Jackson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 25.9% | 20.2% | 3.0% | — | 5.74 | 24.4% | 5.1% | 94 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 21.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 46 | -1.03 | 2.40 | 231 | 73 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 72 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.44 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .293 | 3.55 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -0.89 | 3.07 | 363 | 69 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 69 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 69 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 25.0% | 17.0% | 3.4% | .292 | 4.88 | 27.3% | 16.6% | 53 | -0.15 | 2.55 | 266 | 68 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 68 |
| Mitchell Osnowitz R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.34 | 19.6% | 19.2% | 2.7% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 132 | 67 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 254 | 67 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 66 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.49 | 21.0% | 18.3% | 3.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 181 | 65 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2025 · 6.13 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.13 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 5.8% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 33 | -2.24 | 2.67 | 301 | 65 |
| Noah Song R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 65 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.42 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 241 | 64 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 64 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 64 |
| Jackson Rees R 2024 · 5.65 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.65 | 24.2% | 24.6% | 2.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 103 | 64 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 63 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 2.0% | .203 | 3.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 18 | -0.94 | 3.03 | 115 | 62 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 25.0% | 19.7% | 1.26 | 5.22 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |