Jackson Rees
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.1
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%13.1%
IP16
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 16 | 0 | 21 | 97 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 16.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 39 | 0 | 62 | 236 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 28.2% | 7.4% | 0.4% | 0.73 | 1.89 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 15 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 22 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.31 | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 22 | 0 | 22 | 107 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 24.2% | 24.6% | 2.5% | 7.89 | 5.54 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 16 | — | 16 | 67 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 2 | 124 | 522 | 132 | 62 | 6 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 3.13 | 3.16 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 3 | 200 | 844 | 213 | 100 | 10 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 3.13 | 3.16 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Rees (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.53 | 23.1% | 12.7% | 20 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 95 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 86 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 83 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 83 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 80 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.45 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.57 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.12 | 1.61 | 312 | 78 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 78 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 77 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 76 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.85 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 231 | 76 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.