Mason Vinyard

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	34	0	48	3.17	2.50	31.7%	12.2%	—	K 23.4% · BB 14.3% · FIP 3.60
2025	26	MIX2 levels	41	1	48	4.47	4.22	26.2%	13.6%	—	K 21.8% · BB 14.5% · FIP 4.40
2026	27	MIX3 levels	38	0	58	4.34	5.26	16.1%	11.8%	—	K 13.6% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.85
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	7	0	7	5.55	5.55	16.6%	13.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBMIA	17	0	18	5.51	5.56	17.1%	13.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBMIA	21	0	22	5.55	5.64	17.2%	13.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBeck Wheeler (age 28) · Kevin Gryboski (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%16.6%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%3.2%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	61	247	74	29	3	0%	1.6	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	1.5%	3.12	3.73	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	61	247	74	29	3	0%	1.6	30.0%	11.7%	18.2%	1.2%	3.12	2.74	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	48	205	65	25	2	0%	1.4	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	1.2%	3.17	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	48	205	65	25	2	0%	1.4	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	1.2%	3.17	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	48	205	65	25	2	0%	1.4	31.7%	12.2%	19.5%	1.0%	3.17	2.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	48	206	54	28	6	2%	1.2	21.8%	14.5%	7.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	48	206	54	28	6	2%	1.2	21.8%	14.5%	7.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	48	206	54	28	6	2%	1.2	26.2%	13.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.47	4.22	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	58	255	41	30	9	0%	1.5	13.6%	11.5%	2.2%	4.5%	4.34	5.85	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	58	255	41	30	9	0%	1.5	13.6%	11.5%	2.2%	4.5%	4.34	5.85	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	58	255	41	30	9	0%	1.5	16.1%	11.8%	4.3%	3.5%	4.34	5.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.4%	3.2%	3.2%	5.55	5.55	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	49	206	35	27	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.4%	5.51	5.56	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	38	0	40	167	29	22	6	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.2%	4.0%	3.5%	5.55	5.64	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	17	0	18	76	13	10	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.4%	5.51	5.56	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	21	0	22	93	16	12	3	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.2%	4.0%	3.5%	5.55	5.64	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	168	29	22	6	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.5%	5.53	5.22	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	111	30	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.5%	5.53	5.22	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		151	1	215	913	184	122	22	1%	1.4	20.1%	13.4%	6.7%	2.5%	3.76	4.44	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	1	200	848	171	113	21	1%	1.4	20.1%	13.4%	6.7%	2.5%	3.76	4.44	-2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 27 IPFIP 5.14 → 5.36 (+0.23)K% 16.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.95%	—	×0.860	14.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.71%	—	×0.900	11.44%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.14 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 26 IPFIP 5.49 → 6.35 (+0.86)K% 15.7% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.65%	—	×0.810	12.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.43%	—	×1.100	11.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.49 → 6.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 5 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.20 (+0.52)K% 13.6% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.770	10.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.150	15.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 47 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.40 (+0.78)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.90%	—	×0.810	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.20%	—	×1.100	14.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.030	×1.200	2.37%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 47 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.60 (+0.94)K% 30.3% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.35%	—	×0.770	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.44%	—	×1.150	14.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.032	×1.250	1.20%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 36 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.03 (+0.96)K% 27.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.81%	—	×0.770	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.58%	—	×1.150	14.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.65%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ATampa Tarpons · 24 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.26 (+1.08)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.180	12.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.086	×1.300	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Vinyard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	16.6%	13.4%	3.2%	—	5.60	17.1%	3.9%	88	+0.05	—	—	—
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	86
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	84
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	83
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	83
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	82
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	80
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.49	15.9%	4.6%	79	+0.29	4.46	215	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	80
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	16.9%	13.3%	1.30	5.54
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*