Mason Vinyard — OGILVIE

Mason Vinyard P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%22.3%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	61	247	74	29	3	0%	1.6	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	1.5%	3.12	3.73	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	61	247	74	29	3	0%	1.6	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	1.5%	3.12	3.73	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	61	247	74	29	3	0%	1.6	30.0%	11.7%	18.2%	1.2%	3.12	2.74	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	48	205	65	25	2	0%	1.4	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	1.2%	3.17	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	48	205	65	25	2	0%	1.4	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	1.2%	3.17	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	48	205	65	25	2	0%	1.4	31.7%	12.2%	19.5%	1.0%	3.17	2.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	48	206	54	28	6	2%	1.2	21.8%	14.5%	7.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	48	206	54	28	6	2%	1.2	21.8%	14.5%	7.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	48	206	54	28	6	2%	1.2	26.2%	13.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.47	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	38	0	58	255	41	30	9	0%	1.5	13.4%	11.5%	1.9%	4.5%	4.34	5.87	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	38	0	58	255	41	30	9	0%	1.5	13.4%	11.5%	1.9%	4.5%	4.34	5.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	MIA	3	0	5	22	3	3	0	0%	1.7	13.6%	13.6%	0.0%	0.0%	1.80	3.68	—
2026	27	AA RAW	MIA	13	0	26	115	18	12	5	0%	2.0	15.7%	10.4%	5.2%	4.3%	4.50	5.49	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIA	22	0	27	118	20	15	4	0%	1.2	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	3.4%	4.67	5.14	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.0%	7.3%	2.7%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	63	276	46	33	10	—	—	16.6%	12.0%	4.5%	3.5%	4.40	5.80	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55	0	58	244	54	35	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.6%	7.7%	2.9%	4.98	5.01	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	55	233	52	33	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.4%	7.8%	3.0%	5.03	5.09	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	24	0	25	106	24	15	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.6%	7.7%	2.9%	4.98	5.01	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	31	0	33	139	31	20	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.4%	7.8%	3.0%	5.03	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	58	243	54	35	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	3.0%	5.01	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	122	24	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	3.0%	5.01	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		151	1	215	913	183	122	22	1%	1.4	20.0%	13.4%	6.7%	2.5%	3.76	4.45	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	1	200	848	170	113	21	1%	1.4	20.0%	13.4%	6.7%	2.5%	3.76	4.45	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Vinyard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	22.3%	15.0%	2.7%	—	5.05	22.2%	7.7%	113	+0.05	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	87
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	87
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	84
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	84
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	22.2%	14.7%	1.11	5.00
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84