Mason Vinyard
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 112
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
K%22.3%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 61 | 247 | 74 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 61 | 247 | 74 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.0% | 11.7% | 18.2% | 1.2% | 3.12 | 2.74 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 65 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 1.2% | 3.17 | 3.58 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 65 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.7% | 12.2% | 19.5% | 1.0% | 3.17 | 2.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 48 | 206 | 54 | 28 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 48 | 206 | 54 | 28 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 26.2% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 21 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 25 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.5% | 17.8% | -4.2% | 0.0% | 2.51 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 56 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 92 | 386 | 81 | 55 | 8 | — | — | 21.0% | 14.2% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 4.69 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 22.3% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 54 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 14.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 52 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 48 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 14.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 0 | 99 | 420 | 93 | 60 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.70 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 121 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 134 | 1 | 190 | 793 | 167 | 117 | 11 | 1% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 14.7% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 3.37 | 3.93 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 1 | 200 | 836 | 176 | 123 | 11 | 1% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 14.7% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 3.37 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Vinyard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 22.3% | 14.7% | 2.7% | — | 5.07 | 22.1% | 7.9% | 165 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 88 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 87 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 86 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 84 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 84 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 84 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 84 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 84 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 83 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 83 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.20 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.12 | 3.03 | 140 | 83 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 82 |
| Joe Record R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 1.5% | .333 | 3.63 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.23 | 2.59 | 280 | 82 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 82 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 22.2% | 14.3% | 1.14 | 4.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |