Tanner Jacobson — OGILVIE

Tanner Jacobson P Peoria Chiefs

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%21.5%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	6	30	8	8	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.26	4.23	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	6	30	8	8	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.26	4.36	—
2023	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	35	0	54	240	74	28	4	0%	1.5	22.8%	13.8%	9.1%	2.1%	4.19	4.09	—
2023	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	35	0	54	240	74	28	4	0%	1.5	22.8%	13.8%	9.1%	2.1%	4.19	4.09	—
2023	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	35	0	54	240	74	28	4	0%	1.5	30.8%	11.7%	19.2%	1.7%	4.19	2.88	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	40	0	64	276	75	31	9	0%	1.6	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	4.1%	4.08	5.22	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	40	0	64	276	75	31	9	0%	1.6	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	4.1%	4.08	5.22	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	40	0	64	276	75	31	9	0%	1.6	27.2%	11.2%	15.9%	3.3%	4.08	4.04	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	31	0	51	220	61	37	2	0%	1.6	21.4%	19.3%	2.0%	1.3%	3.20	4.47	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	31	0	51	220	61	37	2	0%	1.6	21.4%	19.3%	2.0%	1.3%	3.20	4.47	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	31	0	51	220	61	37	2	0%	1.6	27.7%	16.8%	10.9%	0.9%	3.20	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	STL	6	0	6	25	5	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	18.2%	3.2%	2.8%	5.54	5.54	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	66	0	69	291	63	51	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	17.4%	4.3%	2.9%	5.44	5.45	-0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	282	61	48	9	0%	1.0	21.7%	17.0%	4.7%	3.0%	5.42	5.45	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	61	0	64	270	58	45	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	3.2%	5.46	5.53	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	24	0	25	106	23	18	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	17.4%	4.3%	2.9%	5.44	5.45	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	37	0	39	165	36	28	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	17.0%	4.7%	3.0%	5.42	5.45	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	43	0	45	190	41	32	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	3.2%	5.46	5.53	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	110	463	100	79	14	0%	1.1	21.6%	17.0%	4.6%	3.1%	5.44	5.10	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	144	26	0%	1.1	21.6%	17.0%	4.6%	3.1%	5.44	5.10	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		112	0	175	766	167	119	19	0%	1.6	21.9%	15.6%	6.3%	2.5%	3.86	4.62	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	877	192	137	22	0%	1.6	21.9%	15.6%	6.3%	2.5%	3.86	4.62	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Jacobson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	21.5%	18.2%	2.8%	—	5.48	21.6%	4.6%	200	-0.06	—	—	—
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	82
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	82
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	82
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	82
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	81
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	81
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	81
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	81
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	80
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	80
Livan Reinoso R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	24	SU	4.36	20.1%	19.7%	0.8%	.331	5.40	15.7%	-2.3%	154	+1.04	4.36	219	80
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	80
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	80
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	80
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	80
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	21.6%	17.4%	1.15	5.47
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91