Tanner Jacobson
P
Peoria Chiefs
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 124
ERA5.48
FIP5.48
K%21.5%
BB%17.6%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.26 | 4.23 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.26 | 4.36 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 35 | 0 | 54 | 240 | 74 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 4.08 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 35 | 0 | 54 | 240 | 74 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.8% | 11.7% | 19.2% | 1.7% | 4.19 | 2.88 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 40 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 75 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 4.08 | 5.24 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 40 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 75 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.2% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 4.04 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 31 | 0 | 51 | 220 | 61 | 37 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.4% | 19.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.20 | 4.62 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 31 | 0 | 51 | 220 | 61 | 37 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.7% | 16.8% | 10.9% | 0.9% | 3.20 | 3.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 64 | 52 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 17.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.48 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 63 | 49 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 16.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.39 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 61 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 16.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.37 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 16.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.39 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 36 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 16.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.37 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 65 | 273 | 59 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 16.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.38 | 5.03 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 139 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 16.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.38 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 0 | 175 | 766 | 167 | 119 | 20 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.9% | 15.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 0 | 200 | 877 | 192 | 137 | 23 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.9% | 15.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Jacobson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.48 | 21.5% | 17.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.41 | 21.7% | 5.0% | 136 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 85 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 84 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 83 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .246 | 4.88 | 12.9% | -1.0% | 29 | +0.37 | 4.51 | 151 | 82 |
| Michael Hobbs R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 184 | 82 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .351 | 3.67 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 18 | -0.83 | 3.67 | 108 | 82 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.77 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 203 | 82 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 81 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.49 | 21.9% | 16.7% | 2.1% | .367 | 4.98 | 19.5% | 1.7% | 83 | +0.49 | 3.72 | 197 | 81 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 81 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 81 |
| Fernando Baez R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 81 |
| Matt Lollis R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 81 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.36 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.16 | 26.8% | 20.6% | 26 | -2.20 | 3.16 | 253 | 81 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.49 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 3.1% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.17 | 116 | 80 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 80 |
| Manuel Alvarez R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.22 | 20.3% | 17.1% | 3.0% | .330 | 6.73 | 11.8% | -14.8% | 12 | +1.51 | 4.59 | 154 | 80 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.37 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | .256 | 3.94 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 61 | -1.43 | 3.94 | 189 | 79 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 25.1% | 21.2% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.67 | 25.1% | -1.5% | 13 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 310 | 79 |
| Hobie Harris R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 21.6% | 15.9% | 3.2% | .256 | 4.62 | 24.1% | 11.1% | 97 | -0.44 | 3.08 | 452 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 21.6% | 17.0% | 1.15 | 5.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |