Tanner Jacobson
P
Peoria Chiefs
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%9.9%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL2020
CMD4040
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 6 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 8 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.26 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 35 | 0 | 54 | 240 | 74 | 28 | 4 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.2% | 4.19 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 40 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 75 | 31 | 9 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 4.08 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 31 | 0 | 51 | 220 | 61 | 37 | 2 | 21.4% | 19.3% | 1.4% | 3.20 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | STL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 52 | 35 | 7 | 22.5% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 52 | 33 | 7 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 51 | 32 | 7 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 22.5% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 48 | 30 | 7 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 46 | 29 | 6 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 44 | 28 | 6 | 21.8% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | STL | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 41 | 27 | 6 | 21.5% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | STL | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 38 | 26 | 6 | 21.2% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 5.31 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 35 | 25 | 6 | 20.8% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 5.42 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 32 | 24 | 6 | 20.4% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 5.55 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 0 | 175 | 766 | 167 | 119 | 20 | 21.9% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 4.62 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 0 | 200 | 877 | 191 | 136 | 23 | 21.9% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 4.62 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Jacobson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 22.5% | 14.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.96 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 161 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 90 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 89 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 87 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .282 | 4.71 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.45 | 2.59 | 233 | 87 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.82 | 2.04 | 138 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.94 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.64 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.70 | 3.84 | 272 | 86 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 85 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.10 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 3.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 142 | 85 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 84 |
| Tyler Baum R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.96 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .309 | 5.16 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 32 | +0.20 | 3.39 | 177 | 84 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.16 | 26.8% | 20.6% | 26 | -2.12 | 3.16 | 253 | 84 |
| Sean Isaac R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.21 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 155 | 83 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 83 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 83 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 83 |
| Matt Lollis R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.00 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 120 | 83 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .205 | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 211 | -0.24 | 4.02 | 328 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.