Axel Perez
P
DSL Orioles Black
Age 20
RHP
6'4" / 158 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%23.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 10 | 9 | 23 | 103 | 32 | 13 | 2 | 90% | 2.3 | 21.1% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.48 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 10 | 9 | 23 | 103 | 32 | 13 | 2 | 90% | 2.3 | 31.1% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 5.48 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 6 | 6 | 19 | 98 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.1 | 13.2% | 21.7% | -8.5% | 2.9% | 7.71 | 6.30 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.8 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 32 | 156 | 32 | 23 | 4 | — | — | 20.8% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 6.30 | 5.49 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 15 | 42 | 201 | 35 | 38 | 6 | 94% | 2.6 | 17.3% | 18.7% | -1.4% | 2.8% | 6.48 | 5.52 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 72 | 200 | 965 | 166 | 180 | 27 | 94% | 2.6 | 17.3% | 18.7% | -1.4% | 2.8% | 6.48 | 5.52 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Axel Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.7% | 14.5% | 20 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 86 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 83 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 82 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 81 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 80 |
| Chris Clark R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.41 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .362 | 4.78 | 17.6% | 7.1% | 303 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 322 | 79 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 79 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.83 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.84 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.83 | 358 | 78 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 78 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.56 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 4.5% | .392 | 4.05 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 198 | -0.51 | 3.53 | 281 | 78 |
| Jeff Criswell R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.20 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .242 | 5.37 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 306 | +1.17 | 4.20 | 336 | 77 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 77 |
| Michael Grove R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 76 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 75 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 75 |
| Israel Puello R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.93 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .328 | 6.08 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 107 | +2.15 | 3.01 | 266 | 75 |
| River Ryan R 2029 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 75 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 75 |
| Levi Wells R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 132 | -0.47 | 3.70 | 192 | 75 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 75 |