Axel Perez — OGILVIE

Axel Perez P DSL Orioles Black

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 158 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%22.7%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	10	9	23	103	32	13	2	90%	2.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.7%	5.48	4.79	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	10	9	23	103	32	13	2	90%	2.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.7%	5.48	4.79	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	10	9	23	103	32	13	2	90%	2.3	31.1%	12.6%	18.4%	1.9%	5.48	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	9	32	166	30	29	2	75%	2.7	12.3%	21.8%	-9.5%	1.7%	8.07	5.75	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	9	32	166	30	29	2	75%	2.7	12.3%	21.8%	-9.5%	1.7%	8.07	5.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	BAL	12	9	32	166	30	29	2	75%	2.7	18.1%	17.5%	0.6%	1.2%	8.07	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	33	141	33	17	4	100%	5.5	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.67	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	16	68	16	8	2	100%	5.3	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	69	16	8	2	100%	5.5	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	195	98	24	100%	4.8	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		22	18	55	269	42	52	6	82%	2.5	15.7%	19.5%	-3.8%	2.1%	6.99	5.38	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	65	200	972	152	190	20	82%	2.5	15.7%	19.5%	-3.8%	2.1%	6.99	5.38	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Axel Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	22.7%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.67	23.2%	11.0%	33	-0.27	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	82
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	80
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	79
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	79
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	78
Aidan Curry R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	21.7%	13.5%	3.5%	.384	4.73	21.5%	9.5%	260	-0.18	3.34	410	78
Royber Salinas R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	27.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.280	4.36	26.1%	11.3%	213	-0.33	3.75	285	77
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	77
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	77
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	77
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	76
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	76
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	76
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	75
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	75
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	75
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	75