Brayan Orrantia
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.9 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%22.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 17 | 16 | 60 | 306 | 62 | 56 | 9 | 94% | 3.5 | 15.0% | 21.6% | -6.6% | 3.8% | 5.37 | 6.67 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.54 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 100 | 474 | 100 | 73 | 14 | — | — | 21.2% | 15.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 5.80 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 42 | 176 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 44 | 185 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 45 | 192 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 196 | 50 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 199 | 51 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 199 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 17.8% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 196 | 51 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.0% | 8.2% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.5% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 47 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 4.00 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 48 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.0% | 8.2% | 17.8% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 47 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.5% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 54 | 306 | 1292 | 328 | 109 | 39 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 3.66 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 214 | 71 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 16 | 60 | 306 | 46 | 66 | 12 | 94% | 3.5 | 15.0% | 21.6% | -6.6% | 3.8% | 5.37 | 6.67 | -1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 53 | 200 | 1014 | 152 | 219 | 39 | 94% | 3.5 | 15.0% | 21.6% | -6.6% | 3.8% | 5.37 | 6.67 | -3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Orrantia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.17 | 24.2% | 15.2% | 131 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 85 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 84 |
| Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 83 |
| Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 82 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 82 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 82 |
| Dylan Wilson R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.60 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 139 | 82 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 82 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 82 |
| Chad Patrick R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 82 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 82 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 81 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 81 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .277 | 3.55 | 28.6% | 22.7% | 66 | -0.25 | 3.55 | 276 | 81 |
| Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 81 |
| Nate Dohm R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 80 |
| Jared Karros R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 80 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 80 |
| Christian Roa R 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 80 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 45 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 1.12 | 4.09 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |