Brayan Orrantia — OGILVIE

Brayan Orrantia P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%19.8%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	25	21	91	452	85	75	12	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	25	21	91	452	85	75	12	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	BAL	25	21	91	452	85	75	12	84%	3.6	18.8%	16.6%	2.2%	2.7%	5.76	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	93	394	81	53	12	100%	4.9	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	3.0%	5.16	5.06	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	98	413	90	49	12	100%	5.2	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.74	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	102	429	96	46	12	100%	5.3	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.52	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	104	440	101	44	12	100%	5.5	22.9%	10.1%	12.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.37	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	105	445	104	43	13	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.28	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	105	445	105	43	13	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.26	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	104	438	103	42	13	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.29	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	101	425	99	42	13	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.35	4.38	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	96	406	94	41	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.51	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	382	87	40	13	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	3.3%	4.59	4.69	+0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	84	356	80	38	13	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.5%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2038	32	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	78	329	79	34	12	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	3.8%	4.82	4.85	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	46	194	40	26	6	100%	5.1	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	3.1%	5.23	5.13	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	71	300	65	35	9	100%	5.1	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.95	4.81	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	86	363	81	39	11	100%	5.4	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.59	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	93	393	90	39	12	100%	5.5	22.9%	10.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.44	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	97	410	96	39	12	100%	5.7	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	98	414	97	40	12	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.33	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	98	40	13	100%	6.2	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.36	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	96	405	95	40	13	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.1%	4.42	4.45	+0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	89	39	13	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.59	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	86	363	83	38	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	3.5%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	80	338	76	36	13	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.7%	4.86	4.98	+0.0
2038	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	74	312	75	32	12	100%	6.2	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	4.0%	4.91	4.94	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		177	177	1016	4291	984	444	137	100%	5.7	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.22	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	194	87	27	100%	5.8	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		25	21	91	452	63	88	16	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	46	200	997	139	195	34	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Orrantia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	19.8%	15.6%	3.0%	—	4.77	21.6%	9.6%	293	-0.66	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	85
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	82
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	82
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	81
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	81
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	80
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	80
Jose Disla R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	20	SP	5.52	15.8%	13.4%	3.8%	.296	4.49	19.7%	8.8%	70	-1.03	3.61	139	80
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	80
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	80
Wellington Aracena R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	18	SP	5.11	17.2%	15.8%	2.7%	.273	4.20	19.8%	3.0%	236	-0.91	3.20	304	80
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	91	22.8%	10.6%	1.18	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32