Brayan Orrantia

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1375ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	ABAL	25	21	91	5.76	5.43	18.8%	16.6%	—	K 13.9% · BB 19.6% · FIP 6.30
2027PROJ	21	MLBBAL	—	—	0	6.18	6.18	16.0%	18.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBAL	6	6	31	5.80	5.63	18.3%	15.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBAL	9	9	46	5.41	5.22	19.7%	13.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsKyle Larsen (age 21) · Jake Madden (age 21) · José Leclerc (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151142vR 134

ERA6.18

FIP6.18

K%16.0%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-2.6%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	25	21	91	452	85	75	12	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	—
2026	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	25	21	91	452	85	75	12	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	—
2026	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	25	21	91	452	85	75	12	84%	3.6	18.8%	16.6%	2.2%	2.7%	5.76	5.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.0%	18.6%	-2.6%	3.1%	6.18	6.18	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	64	268	49	42	8	100%	5.3	18.3%	15.5%	2.8%	3.0%	5.73	5.56	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	64	268	53	36	8	100%	5.3	19.7%	13.4%	6.3%	3.0%	5.34	5.15	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	268	55	32	8	100%	5.8	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	2.9%	5.05	4.89	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	59	247	52	28	7	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.85	4.73	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	59	247	53	28	7	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.71	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	57	242	51	27	7	100%	5.7	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	54	230	49	26	7	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.4%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	51	214	45	25	7	100%	6.3	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.96	+0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	50	209	47	23	7	100%	6.2	22.6%	11.1%	11.4%	3.4%	4.88	4.87	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	31	131	24	20	4	100%	5.2	18.3%	15.5%	2.8%	3.2%	5.80	5.63	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	46	194	38	26	6	100%	5.1	19.7%	13.4%	6.3%	3.1%	5.41	5.22	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	53	224	46	27	7	100%	5.9	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	3.1%	5.12	4.96	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	52	220	46	25	7	100%	5.8	21.1%	11.2%	9.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.80	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	54	228	48	26	7	100%	6.0	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.84	4.78	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	53	224	48	25	7	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.1%	4.83	4.82	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	51	215	46	25	7	100%	6.4	21.1%	11.4%	9.7%	3.2%	4.88	4.91	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	48	203	42	24	7	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.4%	4.98	5.04	+0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	47	198	45	22	7	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.1%	11.4%	3.6%	4.96	4.95	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	435	1836	383	219	59	100%	5.8	20.9%	11.9%	8.9%	3.2%	5.05	4.60	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	176	101	27	100%	5.8	20.9%	11.9%	8.9%	3.2%	5.05	4.60	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		25	21	91	452	63	88	16	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	46	200	997	139	195	34	84%	3.6	13.9%	19.6%	-5.7%	3.5%	5.76	6.30	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 91 IPFIP 5.07 → 6.30 (+1.23)K% 18.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.81%	—	×0.740	13.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.59%	—	×1.180	19.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.07 → 6.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Orrantia (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.18	16.0%	18.6%	3.1%	—	5.20	19.5%	5.9%	190	-0.98	—	—	—
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	85
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	84
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	83
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	83
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Wilmer Blanco R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	20	SP	5.76	14.9%	16.3%	3.4%	.364	5.82	14.1%	2.3%	47	+0.06	3.81	163	82
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	81
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	81
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	81
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	81
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	80
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	80
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	80
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	80
Stiven Cruz R 2023 · 6.36 FIP	21	SP-	6.36	13.6%	14.8%	4.6%	.312	4.91	17.3%	6.4%	192	-1.45	2.84	426	79
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	79
Samuel Colmenares R 2024 · 6.21 FIP	19	SP-	6.21	17.3%	21.0%	3.5%	.292	3.85	15.8%	8.0%	31	-2.36	3.85	123	79
Marlon De La Cruz R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	18	SP	5.31	17.1%	20.9%	1.8%	.306	5.34	13.8%	-6.9%	101	+0.03	4.35	140	79
Noble Meyer R 2024 · 5.82 FIP	19	SP	5.82	20.0%	20.0%	3.4%	.198	4.31	18.7%	3.9%	65	-1.51	4.31	139	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	58	20.2%	12.9%	1.18	5.15
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*