Stiven Cruz — OGILVIE

Stiven Cruz P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%14.9%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%0.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	12	11	53	210	73	23	0	92%	4.4	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	0.0%	1.37	2.84	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	12	11	53	210	73	23	0	92%	4.4	34.8%	11.0%	23.8%	0.0%	1.37	1.64	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	91	377	109	24	14	100%	4.8	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.3%	3.74	4.60	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	91	377	109	24	14	100%	4.8	28.9%	6.4%	22.5%	3.7%	3.74	3.49	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	19	90	420	74	54	16	79%	3.8	13.6%	14.8%	-1.2%	4.6%	6.90	6.36	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	19	90	420	74	54	16	79%	3.8	13.6%	14.8%	-1.2%	4.6%	6.90	6.36	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	19	90	420	74	54	16	79%	3.8	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	3.8%	6.90	5.57	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	6	63	266	49	30	6	18%	1.9	14.2%	13.0%	1.2%	2.9%	3.43	5.13	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	6	63	266	49	30	6	18%	1.9	14.2%	13.0%	1.2%	2.9%	3.43	5.13	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	6	63	266	49	30	6	18%	1.9	18.4%	11.3%	7.1%	2.3%	3.43	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	66	294	63	31	5	3%	1.9	16.8%	12.0%	4.7%	1.7%	4.39	4.15	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	66	294	63	31	5	3%	1.9	16.8%	12.0%	4.7%	1.7%	4.39	4.15	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	66	294	63	31	5	3%	1.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	1.7%	4.39	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	36	1	63	271	70	19	13	3%	1.8	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	5.8%	5.68	5.47	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	36	1	63	271	70	19	13	3%	1.8	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	5.8%	5.68	5.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	MIL	36	1	63	271	70	19	13	3%	1.8	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	4.8%	5.68	4.44	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIL	5	0	6	24	4	4	1	0%	1.1	14.9%	14.7%	0.2%	2.8%	5.61	5.61	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	69	295	74	23	14	—	—	24.9%	7.6%	17.3%	4.6%	5.68	5.48	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	65	0	68	287	47	39	8	0%	1.0	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	2.8%	5.38	5.31	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	65	0	68	287	50	37	8	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.1%	4.4%	2.8%	5.25	5.20	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	283	50	37	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.9%	4.8%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	62	0	65	274	49	36	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	13.0%	4.7%	3.0%	5.22	5.26	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	29	0	30	127	21	17	4	0%	1.0	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	2.8%	5.38	5.31	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	43	0	45	190	33	25	5	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.1%	4.4%	2.8%	5.25	5.20	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	52	220	39	28	6	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.9%	4.8%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	52	0	55	232	41	30	7	0%	1.1	17.7%	13.0%	4.7%	3.0%	5.22	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	134	100	22	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.1%	4.4%	2.9%	5.25	4.86	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	110	24	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.1%	4.4%	2.9%	5.25	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		159	57	426	1838	332	210	64	36%	2.7	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	3.5%	4.46	4.93	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	27	200	863	156	98	30	36%	2.7	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	3.5%	4.46	4.93	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stiven Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	14.9%	14.7%	2.8%	—	5.24	17.2%	4.1%	203	-0.37	—	—	—
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	85
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	84
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	82
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	82
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	81
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	81
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	81
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	81
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	81
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	80
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	80
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	80
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	80
Joe Nahas R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	23	SU	4.70	14.3%	13.3%	2.1%	.295	4.63	18.8%	10.6%	77	-0.07	4.33	328	80
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
James Pugliese R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	24	SW	4.72	12.5%	11.6%	2.2%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	218	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	79
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	79
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	16.8%	13.4%	1.10	5.33
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78