Stiven Cruz

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+MIL	33	6	63	3.43	4.21	18.4%	11.3%	—	K 14.2% · BB 13.0% · FIP 5.13
2025	23	MIX2 levels	35	1	66	4.39	3.59	21.4%	10.5%	—	K 16.8% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.15
2026	24	AAMIL	36	1	63	5.68	4.46	25.8%	7.0%	—	K 20.9% · BB 7.7% · FIP 5.47
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	1	0	1	5.36	5.36	18.2%	11.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBMIL	22	0	23	5.24	5.23	19.0%	11.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIL	28	0	29	5.19	5.20	19.3%	11.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCameron Foster (age 25) · Nick Hull (age 24) · Brad Deppermann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%18.2%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	12	11	53	210	73	23	0	92%	4.4	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	0.0%	1.37	2.84	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	12	11	53	210	73	23	0	92%	4.4	34.8%	11.0%	23.8%	0.0%	1.37	1.64	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	91	377	109	24	14	100%	4.8	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.3%	3.74	4.60	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	91	377	109	24	14	100%	4.8	28.9%	6.4%	22.5%	3.7%	3.74	3.49	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	19	90	420	74	54	16	79%	3.8	13.6%	14.8%	-1.2%	4.6%	6.90	6.36	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	19	90	420	74	54	16	79%	3.8	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	3.8%	6.90	5.57	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	6	63	266	49	30	6	18%	1.9	14.2%	13.0%	1.2%	2.9%	3.43	5.13	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	6	63	266	49	30	6	18%	1.9	14.2%	13.0%	1.2%	2.9%	3.43	5.13	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	6	63	266	49	30	6	18%	1.9	18.4%	11.3%	7.1%	2.3%	3.43	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	66	294	63	31	5	3%	1.9	16.8%	12.0%	4.7%	1.7%	4.39	4.15	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	66	294	63	31	5	3%	1.9	16.8%	12.0%	4.7%	1.7%	4.39	4.15	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	66	294	63	31	5	3%	1.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	1.7%	4.39	3.59	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	36	1	63	271	70	19	13	3%	1.8	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	5.8%	5.68	5.47	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	36	1	63	271	70	19	13	3%	1.8	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	5.8%	5.68	5.47	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	36	1	63	271	70	19	13	3%	1.8	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	4.8%	5.68	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.9%	6.4%	3.5%	5.36	5.36	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	50	0	53	223	42	26	8	0%	1.1	19.0%	11.6%	7.4%	3.4%	5.24	5.23	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	44	0	46	193	37	22	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.5%	5.19	5.20	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	40	0	42	177	34	20	6	0%	1.1	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	3.5%	5.20	5.24	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	37	0	39	163	31	19	6	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.7%	7.6%	3.7%	5.28	5.35	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	22	0	23	97	18	11	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.6%	7.4%	3.4%	5.24	5.23	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	28	0	29	122	24	14	4	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.5%	5.19	5.20	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	30	0	32	135	26	16	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	3.5%	5.20	5.24	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	30	0	32	135	26	16	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.7%	7.6%	3.7%	5.28	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	0	115	487	94	56	17	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	3.5%	5.23	4.88	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	97	29	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	3.5%	5.23	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		159	57	426	1838	332	210	64	36%	2.7	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	3.5%	4.46	4.93	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	27	200	863	156	98	30	36%	2.7	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	3.5%	4.46	4.93	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 63 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.47 (+1.03)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.83%	—	×0.810	20.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.01%	—	×1.100	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.80%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 44 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.68 (+0.68)K% 22.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.770	17.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.13%	—	×1.150	15.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.246	×1.250	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 22 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.06 (+0.40)K% 19.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.79%	—	×0.810	16.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.21%	—	×1.100	5.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.170	×1.200	1.07%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 63 IPFIP 4.21 → 5.13 (+0.91)K% 18.4% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.770	14.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.28%	—	×1.150	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷0.979	×1.250	2.88%

Result: FIP 4.21 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 90 IPFIP 5.33 → 6.36 (+1.03)K% 17.6% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.62%	—	×0.770	13.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×1.150	14.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷1.033	×1.250	4.61%

Result: FIP 5.33 → 6.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 72 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.82 (+1.11)K% 29.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.99%	—	×0.740	21.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.86%	—	×1.180	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.136	×1.300	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 19 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.60 (+1.04)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.150	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.885	×1.250	2.02%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Brewers 1 · 53 IPFIP 1.55 → 2.84 (+1.29)K% 34.8% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.76%	—	×0.680	23.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.95%	—	×1.250	13.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.948	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.55 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stiven Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	18.2%	11.9%	3.5%	—	5.22	19.2%	7.7%	140	-0.14	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	90
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	88
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	87
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	84
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	84
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	84
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	83
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	83
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	83
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	83
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	82
Erich Uelmen R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	17.9%	11.0%	4.3%	.267	3.88	19.9%	9.1%	112	-1.44	3.48	383	82
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	82
Fernando Nieve R 2006 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	17.0%	8.8%	4.4%	.240	4.67	14.3%	3.1%	37	-0.51	1.96	287	82
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	82
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	82
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	82
Seth McGarry R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	17.1%	9.6%	3.2%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	261	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	50	18.9%	11.6%	1.36	5.26
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*