Alejandro Rivera

P ACL Guardians

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#678ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL CLE Goryl	13	2	29	2.48	2.86	22.3%	8.9%	—	K 15.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.73
2025	18	ROKDSL CLE Mendo…	11	11	44	1.02	2.92	19.8%	11.6%	—	K 13.4% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.81
2026	19	MIX2 levels	17	10	64	3.66	2.91	31.3%	9.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	20	MLBCIN	—	—	0	5.07	5.07	20.1%	13.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBCIN	4	4	25	5.00	4.92	21.1%	11.6%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBCIN	6	6	37	4.77	4.64	22.2%	10.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 3.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsFelix Arronde (age 20) · Bryan Polanco (age 20) · Joshua Quezada (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%20.1%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	13	2	29	112	25	10	1	15%	2.2	15.2%	11.2%	4.0%	0.9%	2.48	3.73	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	13	2	29	112	25	10	1	15%	2.2	15.2%	11.2%	4.0%	0.9%	2.48	3.73	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	13	2	29	112	25	10	1	15%	2.2	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	0.9%	2.48	2.86	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	11	44	172	34	20	0	100%	4.0	13.4%	14.5%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.02	3.81	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	11	44	172	34	20	0	100%	4.0	13.4%	14.5%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.02	3.81	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	11	44	172	34	20	0	100%	4.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.1%	0.0%	1.02	2.92	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	64	268	84	26	6	59%	3.8	21.6%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	3.66	4.42	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	64	268	84	26	6	59%	3.8	21.6%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	3.66	4.42	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	10	64	268	84	26	6	59%	3.8	31.3%	9.7%	21.6%	2.2%	3.66	2.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	211	44	24	6	100%	6.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.79	+0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	212	47	22	6	100%	6.3	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.64	4.51	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	51	215	50	21	6	100%	6.4	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.8%	4.45	4.32	+0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	51	217	51	20	6	100%	6.4	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	2.8%	4.30	4.20	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	51	214	51	19	6	100%	6.3	24.0%	8.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.19	4.12	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	51	215	52	19	6	100%	6.4	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.14	4.10	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	210	51	19	6	100%	6.2	24.2%	8.9%	15.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.14	+0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	200	48	18	6	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.1%	15.0%	3.0%	4.19	4.22	+0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	44	185	44	17	6	100%	6.2	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	3.1%	4.29	4.35	+0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	25	106	22	12	3	100%	6.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.4%	3.2%	5.00	4.92	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	37	156	35	16	5	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.77	4.64	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	42	18	6	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	3.1%	4.57	4.44	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	46	18	6	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.42	4.32	+0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	47	17	6	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.9%	15.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.24	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	47	198	48	18	6	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	3.0%	4.26	4.22	+0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	47	198	48	18	6	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.9%	15.2%	3.1%	4.27	4.27	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	45	190	46	17	6	100%	6.4	24.0%	9.1%	15.0%	3.2%	4.32	4.35	+0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	42	17	6	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	3.4%	4.43	4.49	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	377	1593	374	150	50	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.02	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	198	79	26	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		41	23	137	552	98	69	9	56%	3.3	17.8%	12.6%	5.2%	1.6%	2.56	4.09	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	33	200	804	143	101	13	56%	3.3	17.8%	12.6%	5.2%	1.6%	2.56	4.09	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Guardians · 48 IPFIP 1.67 → 3.13 (+1.46)K% 35.9% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.90%	—	×0.680	24.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.250	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.67 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 16 IPFIP 6.22 → 7.86 (+1.64)K% 19.2% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.18%	—	×0.740	14.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.70%	—	×1.180	16.16%
HR / BF /BF	5.48%	÷1.000	×1.300	7.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.22 → 7.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL CLE Mendoza · 44 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.81 (+0.90)K% 19.8% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.77%	—	×0.680	13.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.250	14.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.940	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL CLE Goryl · 29 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.73 (+0.90)K% 22.3% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.32%	—	×0.680	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.250	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.89%	÷1.366	×1.400	0.92%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.54	22.1%	11.5%	151	-0.53	—	—	—
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	87
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	87
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	86
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	85
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	85
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	85
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	84
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	84
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	84
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83
Jonawel Valdez R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP-	4.13	17.5%	13.8%	1.4%	.309	5.20	12.5%	0.2%	81	+1.07	4.04	141	83
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	83
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	82
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	82
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	82
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	48	23.1%	9.8%	1.12	4.41
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*