Alejandro Rivera

Alejandro Rivera P ACL Guardians

Age 19 RHP 5'10" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%13.9%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	13	2	29	112	25	10	1	15%	2.2	15.2%	11.2%	4.0%	0.9%	2.48	3.73	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	13	2	29	112	25	10	1	15%	2.2	15.2%	11.2%	4.0%	0.9%	2.48	3.73	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	13	2	29	112	25	10	1	15%	2.2	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	0.9%	2.48	2.86	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	11	44	172	34	20	0	100%	4.0	13.4%	14.5%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.02	3.81	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	11	44	172	34	20	0	100%	4.0	13.4%	14.5%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.02	3.81	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	11	44	172	34	20	0	100%	4.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.1%	0.0%	1.02	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	17	10	64	268	84	26	6	59%	3.8	21.6%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	3.66	4.42	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	17	10	64	268	84	26	6	59%	3.8	21.6%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	3.66	4.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	CIN	12	8	48	195	70	16	2	67%	4.0	35.9%	8.2%	27.7%	1.0%	2.44	1.67	—
2026	19	A RAW	CIN	5	2	16	73	14	10	4	40%	3.2	19.2%	13.7%	5.5%	5.5%	7.31	6.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	278	44	40	8	100%	6.0	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.8%	5.58	5.49	-0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	69	292	50	39	8	100%	5.8	17.1%	13.3%	3.8%	2.7%	5.34	5.23	-0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	73	307	56	38	8	100%	5.6	18.4%	12.4%	6.0%	2.7%	5.11	4.98	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	75	318	61	38	8	100%	5.8	19.2%	11.9%	7.4%	2.7%	4.93	4.82	+0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	77	326	65	38	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	2.6%	4.80	4.72	+0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	78	330	67	38	9	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.4%	8.7%	2.6%	4.72	4.66	+0.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	78	330	67	38	9	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	2.6%	4.67	4.64	+0.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	77	325	66	37	9	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.5%	8.9%	2.7%	4.67	4.68	+0.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	75	315	64	37	9	100%	6.2	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.73	4.76	+0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	301	60	36	9	100%	5.9	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.89	+0.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	67	283	56	34	9	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.2%	7.5%	3.1%	4.98	5.07	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	32	135	21	19	4	100%	5.3	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	3.0%	5.70	5.61	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	50	211	36	28	6	100%	5.6	17.1%	13.3%	3.8%	3.0%	5.46	5.35	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	61	258	47	32	7	100%	5.5	18.4%	12.4%	6.0%	2.9%	5.23	5.10	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	68	287	55	34	8	100%	5.7	19.2%	11.9%	7.4%	2.9%	5.05	4.94	+0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	59	35	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	2.8%	4.92	4.84	+0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	73	308	62	35	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.4%	8.7%	2.8%	4.83	4.77	+0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	74	312	64	36	9	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.75	+0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	73	308	63	35	9	100%	6.1	20.3%	11.5%	8.9%	2.9%	4.79	4.80	+0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	61	35	9	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	4.85	4.88	+0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	68	287	57	34	9	100%	6.2	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	3.1%	4.96	5.02	+0.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	64	270	53	33	9	100%	5.8	19.6%	12.2%	7.5%	3.4%	5.12	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	120	706	2979	579	357	88	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.0%	7.5%	3.0%	5.01	4.60	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	164	101	25	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.0%	7.5%	3.0%	5.01	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		41	23	137	552	98	69	9	56%	3.3	17.8%	12.6%	5.2%	1.6%	2.56	4.09	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	33	200	804	143	101	13	56%	3.3	17.8%	12.6%	5.2%	1.6%	2.56	4.09	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	13.9%	15.9%	2.8%	—	5.22	17.1%	3.8%	208	-0.65	—	—	—
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	88
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	88
Maiker Manuel R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	12.3%	15.2%	2.1%	.329	4.59	15.2%	6.7%	101	-0.53	4.56	148	86
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	85
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	199	85
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	85
Mason Denaburg R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	19	SP-	4.98	12.8%	17.3%	1.4%	.328	4.95	16.3%	-0.1%	39	-0.03	4.48	151	85
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	85
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	84
Xavier Javier R 2017 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP-	6.80	6.7%	23.8%	2.3%	.289	5.53	11.0%	-7.1%	65	-1.27	4.47	188	84
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	84
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	84
Luis De Jesus R 2018 · 6.00 FIP	19	SP-	6.00	11.9%	15.6%	3.5%	.274	6.24	12.9%	-8.4%	21	+0.24	4.19	108	84
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	84
Brailin Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.19 FIP	18	SP-	5.19	15.8%	17.8%	2.1%	.322	4.82	16.8%	2.1%	76	-0.37	4.15	168	83
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	83
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	83
Blas Castaño R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	19	SP-	4.68	10.8%	13.2%	1.5%	.307	4.22	13.1%	7.2%	105	-0.46	3.06	633	83
Adrian Alcantara R 2018 · 5.99 FIP	18	SP-	5.99	10.9%	18.3%	2.7%	.326	5.15	17.0%	8.7%	96	-0.84	3.76	309	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	69	19.1%	12.2%	1.06	4.95
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70