Alejandro Rivera
P
ACL Guardians
Age 19
RHP
5'10" / 154 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 129
ERA5.72
FIP5.72
K%13.9%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%-0.8%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL CLE Goryl | 13 | 2 | 29 | 112 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 15% | 2.2 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 2.48 | 3.63 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL CLE Goryl | 13 | 2 | 29 | 112 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 15% | 2.2 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 0.9% | 2.48 | 2.86 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | 11 | 11 | 44 | 172 | 34 | 20 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 13.4% | 14.5% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 1.02 | 3.81 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | 11 | 11 | 44 | 172 | 34 | 20 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 1.02 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 11 | 7 | 43 | 175 | 62 | 15 | 2 | 64% | 3.9 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 2.72 | 3.30 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 23 | 98 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.9% | 14.7% | -0.8% | 2.8% | 5.72 | 5.72 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.9% | 14.7% | -0.8% | 2.8% | 5.72 | 5.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 66 | 273 | 76 | 29 | 5 | — | — | 27.7% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 1.7% | 3.77 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 24 | 103 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.8% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | CLE | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.00 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 133 | 116 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.8% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 20 | 116 | 459 | 82 | 56 | 4 | 57% | 3.3 | 17.9% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 2.01 | 3.57 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 34 | 200 | 789 | 141 | 97 | 6 | 57% | 3.3 | 17.9% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 2.01 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alejandro Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.72 | 13.9% | 14.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.38 | 15.8% | 2.3% | 24 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 89 |
| Denis Diaz R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 87 |
| Danny Flatt R 2027 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 86 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 86 |
| Maiker Manuel R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.12 | 12.3% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .329 | 4.59 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 101 | -0.53 | 4.56 | 148 | 85 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 85 |
| Gage Stanifer R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.77 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 2.2% | .342 | 4.31 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 230 | -0.46 | 2.92 | 273 | 85 |
| Yosber Sanchez R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.6% | 14.9% | 3.3% | .315 | 4.61 | 20.2% | -5.2% | 13 | -0.97 | 3.21 | 182 | 85 |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2028 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 84 |
| Blas Castaño R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.68 | 10.8% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.22 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 105 | -0.46 | 3.06 | 614 | 84 |
| Juan Gomez R 2027 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 84 |
| Jose Pena Jr. R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.56 | 15.0% | 18.7% | 2.5% | .269 | 4.55 | 19.2% | 3.1% | 124 | -1.01 | 3.45 | 176 | 84 |
| Luis De Jesus R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.00 | 11.9% | 15.6% | 3.5% | .274 | 6.24 | 12.9% | -8.4% | 21 | +0.24 | 4.19 | 108 | 83 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 83 |
| Lisandro Almonte R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.89 | 16.3% | 16.4% | 2.0% | .298 | 5.05 | 19.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.16 | 3.92 | 128 | 83 |
| Harold Chirino R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.05 | 13.2% | 16.0% | 3.7% | .327 | 3.11 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 34 | -2.94 | 3.11 | 321 | 83 |
| Jeffrey German R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.59 | 13.6% | 15.5% | 1.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 123 | 82 |
| Brailin Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.8% | 17.8% | 2.2% | .322 | 4.90 | 16.8% | 2.1% | 76 | -0.33 | 4.09 | 168 | 82 |
| Bryan Polanco R 2027 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 82 |
| Anderson Munoz R 2026 · 5.90 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.90 | 14.4% | 18.2% | 3.1% | .306 | 4.39 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 73 | -1.51 | 4.15 | 109 | 82 |