Alejandro Rivera
P
DSL CLE Mendoza
+0.0
WAR
Age 19
RHP
5'10" / 154 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.6 · 2032
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.3%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL CLE Goryl | 13 | 2 | 29 | 112 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 0.8% | 2.48 | 3.67 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | 11 | 11 | 44 | 172 | 34 | 20 | 0 | 13.4% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 1.02 | 3.81 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | PIT | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | PIT | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | PIT | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 42 | 14 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 25.3% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.7% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.73 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 43 | 13 | 5 | 25.7% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 41 | 13 | 4 | 25.5% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 13 | 73 | 284 | 40 | 38 | 1 | 14.1% | 13.2% | 0.3% | 1.60 | 3.75 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 35 | 200 | 775 | 109 | 104 | 3 | 14.1% | 13.2% | 0.3% | 1.60 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alejandro Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.15 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 110 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.96 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.69 | 4.27 | 118 | 94 |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.34 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.01 | 14.2% | 3.6% | 122 | -0.33 | 3.99 | 157 | 94 |
| Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .274 | 5.22 | 20.4% | -0.0% | 141 | +1.06 | 4.07 | 257 | 92 |
| Brandon Komar R 2027 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 91 |
| Yordin Chalas R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.60 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .294 | 3.94 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 116 | -0.66 | 3.68 | 140 | 91 |
| Alimber Santa R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.09 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.24 | 3.38 | 216 | 90 |
| Joel Garcia R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.91 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 72 | -0.35 | 3.11 | 104 | 90 |
| Kevin Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.37 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .279 | 4.12 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 41 | -0.25 | 2.34 | 188 | 90 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.93 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.58 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.65 | 4.46 | 190 | 89 |
| Alec Kisena R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.01 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 1.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 248 | 89 |
| Audry Lugo R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.05 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .247 | 5.31 | 15.6% | -0.4% | 77 | +1.26 | 4.05 | 113 | 89 |
| Aneudy Duarte R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.4% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .320 | 4.79 | 17.1% | 5.4% | 34 | +0.53 | 4.26 | 102 | 89 |
| Randry De Leon R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.63 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.37 | 22.2% | -2.6% | 32 | -0.26 | 4.37 | 105 | 89 |
| Patricio Aquino R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.19 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .321 | 3.97 | 15.1% | 5.8% | 234 | -0.22 | 3.56 | 313 | 89 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 88 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 5.28 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.20 | 3.92 | 116 | 88 |
| Andinson Ferrer R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.68 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.64 | 21.7% | 2.1% | 34 | -0.04 | 4.05 | 101 | 88 |
| Jose Diaz R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.97 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .326 | 5.60 | 19.2% | 1.1% | 64 | +1.63 | 3.93 | 189 | 88 |
| Tyler Gray R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 88 |
| Austin Mason R 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.06 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 3.60 | 179 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $11M | +$8M | ||