Jonawel Valdez — OGILVIE

Jonawel Valdez P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%11.7%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%-2.1%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	5	34	156	32	16	1	42%	2.8	13.9%	12.8%	1.1%	0.9%	5.56	4.04	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	5	34	156	32	16	1	42%	2.8	13.9%	12.8%	1.1%	0.9%	5.56	4.04	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	12	5	34	156	32	16	1	42%	2.8	20.5%	10.3%	10.3%	0.6%	5.56	3.01	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	8	5	27	109	28	12	1	62%	3.3	17.5%	13.8%	3.7%	1.4%	3.04	4.13	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	8	5	27	109	28	12	1	62%	3.3	17.5%	13.8%	3.7%	1.4%	3.04	4.13	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	8	5	27	109	28	12	1	62%	3.3	25.7%	11.0%	14.7%	0.9%	3.04	2.84	—
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	29	3	70	292	49	28	4	10%	2.4	12.4%	11.3%	1.1%	1.9%	3.60	4.53	—
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	29	3	70	292	49	28	4	10%	2.4	12.4%	11.3%	1.1%	1.9%	3.60	4.53	—
2025	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	29	3	70	292	49	28	4	10%	2.4	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	1.4%	3.60	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	0	15	74	16	11	4	0%	1.2	13.5%	19.3%	-5.9%	9.5%	8.40	9.60	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	0	15	74	16	11	4	0%	1.2	13.5%	19.3%	-5.9%	9.5%	8.40	9.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	MIA	4	0	4	19	6	2	0	0%	1.1	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	10.38	1.77	—
2026	22	A RAW	MIA	8	0	11	55	10	9	4	0%	1.3	18.2%	16.4%	1.8%	7.3%	7.59	7.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	276	40	35	8	0%	1.1	14.5%	12.7%	1.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.39	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	283	46	34	8	0%	1.0	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	2.8%	5.26	5.15	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	286	49	33	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	2.8%	5.10	5.03	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	286	51	33	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.6%	6.1%	2.8%	5.02	4.98	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	50	33	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.7%	6.0%	2.8%	5.02	5.01	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	274	48	32	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.8%	5.8%	2.9%	5.07	5.10	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	32	135	20	17	4	0%	1.1	14.5%	12.7%	1.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.39	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	45	0	47	198	32	24	6	0%	1.0	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	2.8%	5.26	5.15	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	52	0	55	232	40	27	6	0%	1.1	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	2.8%	5.10	5.03	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56	0	59	249	44	29	7	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.6%	6.1%	2.8%	5.02	4.98	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	57	0	60	253	45	30	7	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.7%	6.0%	2.8%	5.02	5.01	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	57	0	60	253	45	30	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	11.8%	5.8%	2.9%	5.07	5.10	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		298	0	313	1322	225	157	37	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.8%	5.2%	2.8%	5.13	4.70	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	100	24	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.8%	5.2%	2.8%	5.13	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		61	13	146	631	87	82	15	21%	2.4	13.8%	13.0%	0.7%	2.5%	4.45	4.94	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	18	200	866	119	113	21	21%	2.4	13.8%	13.0%	0.7%	2.5%	4.45	4.94	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonawel Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	11.7%	13.8%	2.8%	—	5.19	16.0%	3.9%	200	-0.59	—	—	—
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	90
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	88
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	86
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	86
Raul Carrillo R 2015 · 5.26 FIP	23	SW	5.26	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	.364	4.56	10.8%	1.4%	169	-0.70	4.40	348	83
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	83
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	83
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	82
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	82
Mario Alcantara R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SU	4.83	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.292	4.64	17.0%	0.9%	97	-0.19	4.36	171	82
Cesar Ventura R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	13.0%	12.3%	3.2%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	135	82
Simon Mercedes R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	23	SU	4.86	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.94	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.08	4.86	139	82
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	81
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	81
Mark Washington R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	22	SU	4.71	12.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.297	4.77	20.3%	8.4%	102	+0.06	3.11	271	81
Johsson Arias R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	8.5%	17.1%	1.6%	.244	3.64	15.9%	4.4%	77	-1.79	3.46	117	81
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	81
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	81
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	81
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	65	16.2%	12.1%	1.09	5.23
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04