Jonawel Valdez

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKPIT	8	5	27	3.04	2.84	25.7%	11.0%	—	K 17.5% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.13
2025	21	APIT	29	3	70	3.60	3.64	16.8%	9.6%	—	K 12.4% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.53
2026	22	MIX2 levels	12	0	15	8.40	6.63	21.6%	14.9%	—	K 13.5% · BB 19.3% · FIP 9.60
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	—	—	0	6.07	6.07	12.3%	15.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIA	21	0	22	5.75	5.66	14.8%	13.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIA	25	0	26	5.51	5.42	16.2%	13.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCole Percival (age 23) · Austin Amaral (age 22) · Garrett Apker (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%12.3%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%-2.9%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	5	34	156	32	16	1	42%	2.8	13.9%	12.8%	1.1%	0.9%	5.56	4.04	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	12	5	34	156	32	16	1	42%	2.8	20.5%	10.3%	10.3%	0.6%	5.56	3.01	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	8	5	27	109	28	12	1	62%	3.3	17.5%	13.8%	3.7%	1.4%	3.04	4.13	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	8	5	27	109	28	12	1	62%	3.3	17.5%	13.8%	3.7%	1.4%	3.04	4.13	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	8	5	27	109	28	12	1	62%	3.3	25.7%	11.0%	14.7%	0.9%	3.04	2.84	—
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	29	3	70	292	49	28	4	10%	2.4	12.4%	11.3%	1.1%	1.9%	3.60	4.53	—
2025	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	29	3	70	292	49	28	4	10%	2.4	12.4%	11.3%	1.1%	1.9%	3.60	4.53	—
2025	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	29	3	70	292	49	28	4	10%	2.4	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	1.4%	3.60	3.64	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	74	16	11	4	0%	1.2	13.5%	19.3%	-5.9%	9.5%	8.40	9.60	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	74	16	11	4	0%	1.2	13.5%	19.3%	-5.9%	9.5%	8.40	9.60	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	15	74	16	11	4	0%	1.2	21.6%	14.9%	6.8%	5.4%	8.40	6.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.3%	15.2%	-2.9%	3.1%	6.07	6.07	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	50	0	52	221	33	31	7	0%	1.0	14.8%	13.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.75	5.66	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	37	0	39	165	27	21	5	0%	1.1	16.2%	13.0%	3.3%	3.0%	5.51	5.42	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	36	0	37	158	27	20	5	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.8%	4.3%	3.0%	5.37	5.32	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	34	0	36	152	26	19	5	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.8%	4.5%	3.1%	5.34	5.33	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	21	0	22	93	14	13	3	0%	1.0	14.8%	13.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.75	5.66	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	25	0	26	110	18	14	3	0%	1.0	16.2%	13.0%	3.3%	3.0%	5.51	5.42	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	29	0	30	127	22	16	4	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.8%	4.3%	3.0%	5.37	5.32	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	31	131	23	17	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.8%	4.5%	3.1%	5.34	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	109	459	75	60	14	0%	1.0	16.4%	13.0%	3.4%	3.1%	5.47	5.04	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	110	26	0%	1.1	16.4%	13.0%	3.4%	3.1%	5.47	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		61	13	146	631	87	82	15	21%	2.4	13.8%	13.0%	0.7%	2.5%	4.45	4.94	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	18	200	866	119	113	21	21%	2.4	13.8%	13.0%	0.7%	2.5%	4.45	4.94	-2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 11 IPFIP 7.63 → 9.60 (+1.97)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.36%	—	×1.180	19.31%
HR / BF /BF	7.27%	÷1.000	×1.300	9.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.63 → 9.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 70 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.53 (+0.88)K% 16.8% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.78%	—	×0.740	12.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.180	11.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷0.932	×1.300	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Pirates · 27 IPFIP 2.83 → 4.13 (+1.30)K% 25.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.69%	—	×0.680	17.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×1.250	13.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷0.921	×1.400	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Pirates Black · 34 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.04 (+1.02)K% 20.5% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.680	13.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.250	12.82%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.90%

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonawel Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	12.3%	15.2%	3.1%	—	5.49	15.9%	2.6%	129	-0.58	—	—	—
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	87
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	86
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	85
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	85
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	84
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	83
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	83
German Taveras R 2016 · 6.41 FIP	23	SU	6.41	10.9%	15.7%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	82
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	82
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	81
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	81
Raul Carrillo R 2015 · 5.26 FIP	23	SW	5.26	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	.364	4.56	10.8%	1.4%	169	-0.70	4.40	348	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	80
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	80
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	80
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	79
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	79
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	15.2%	13.6%	1.18	5.65
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*