Jonawel Valdez
P
FCL Marlins
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148139vR 130
ERA5.75
FIP5.75
K%11.7%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%-1.7%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 12 | 5 | 34 | 156 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 42% | 2.8 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 5.56 | 4.04 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 12 | 5 | 34 | 156 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 42% | 2.8 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.6% | 5.56 | 3.01 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 8 | 5 | 27 | 109 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 62% | 3.3 | 17.5% | 13.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 3.04 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 8 | 5 | 27 | 109 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 62% | 3.3 | 25.7% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 0.9% | 3.04 | 2.84 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 29 | 3 | 70 | 292 | 49 | 28 | 4 | 10% | 2.4 | 12.4% | 11.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.60 | 4.62 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 29 | 3 | 70 | 292 | 49 | 28 | 4 | 10% | 2.4 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 3.60 | 3.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 16.88 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 26 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.7% | 13.4% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.75 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.7% | 13.4% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.75 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 55 | 236 | 29 | 32 | 6 | — | — | 12.3% | 13.5% | -1.2% | 2.7% | 6.29 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 33 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 38 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 43 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 4.85 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 131 | 103 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 13 | 133 | 571 | 80 | 70 | 9 | 25% | 2.6 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 20 | 200 | 856 | 120 | 105 | 14 | 25% | 2.6 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonawel Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.75 | 11.7% | 13.4% | 2.8% | — | 5.25 | 15.4% | 3.3% | 110 | -0.50 | — | — | — |
| Austin Amaral R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.80 | 12.1% | 14.4% | 3.4% | .254 | 3.65 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 99 | -2.15 | 3.55 | 122 | 87 |
| Kelvin Vasquez R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.80 | 14.8% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .248 | 5.43 | 15.0% | -3.0% | 103 | +0.63 | 4.80 | 180 | 85 |
| Juan Perez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.63 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 113 | 85 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 84 |
| Jack Jasiak R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.01 | 12.1% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.05 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 179 | -0.96 | 3.25 | 248 | 84 |
| Justin Ferrell R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 3.4% | .261 | 4.31 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 173 | -1.17 | 3.80 | 300 | 84 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.80 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.08 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 190 | -0.72 | 4.03 | 266 | 84 |
| Zach Mort R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 83 |
| German Taveras R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.78 | 13.6% | 13.5% | 2.0% | .265 | 7.24 | 10.9% | -4.8% | 47 | +2.46 | 4.78 | 108 | 83 |
| Cooper Adams R 2028 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 82 |
| Yunior Montero R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.82 | 16.9% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .276 | 4.59 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 91 | -0.23 | 3.60 | 127 | 82 |
| Blake Quinn R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 82 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2027 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 82 |
| Rogelio Martinez R 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .304 | 5.56 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 73 | +0.41 | 5.15 | 152 | 82 |
| Ian Villers R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .311 | 4.12 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 59 | -0.47 | 4.12 | 107 | 82 |
| Cesar Ventura R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.12 | 13.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 135 | 82 |
| Raul Carrillo R 2027 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.57 | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .364 | 4.54 | 10.8% | 1.4% | 169 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 348 | 81 |
| Johsson Arias R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.43 | 8.5% | 17.1% | 1.6% | .244 | 3.64 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 77 | -1.79 | 3.46 | 117 | 81 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.10 | 16.5% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .243 | 4.62 | 16.6% | 3.7% | 218 | -0.48 | 3.59 | 327 | 81 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2028 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 14.2% | 12.6% | 1.09 | 5.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |