Ryjeteri Merite

P ACL Reds

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#869ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKCIN	3	3	4	2.45	2.55	25.0%	12.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 2.57
2025	19	ROKCIN	14	11	33	0.81	1.81	31.9%	10.9%	—	K 21.7% · BB 13.6% · FIP 2.99
2026	20	MIX2 levels	17	13	54	3.31	2.40	38.1%	12.7%	—	K 26.4% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	21	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.85	4.85	25.1%	14.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCIN	4	4	24	4.76	4.65	25.8%	13.1%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBCIN	6	6	35	4.54	4.42	26.4%	11.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 89%

CompsLiam Sullivan (age 21) · Ronan Kopp (age 21) · Avery Short (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%25.1%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	3	3	4	16	4	2	0	100%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.45	2.57	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	3	3	4	16	4	2	0	100%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.45	2.57	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	3	3	4	16	4	2	0	100%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.45	2.55	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	33	138	44	15	0	79%	2.4	21.7%	13.6%	8.1%	0.0%	0.81	2.99	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	33	138	44	15	0	79%	2.4	21.7%	13.6%	8.1%	0.0%	0.81	2.99	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	11	33	138	44	15	0	79%	2.4	31.9%	10.9%	21.0%	0.0%	0.81	1.81	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	54	236	90	30	4	76%	3.2	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	3.31	4.14	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	54	236	90	30	4	76%	3.2	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	3.31	4.14	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	54	236	90	30	4	76%	3.2	38.1%	12.7%	25.4%	1.7%	3.31	2.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.1%	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.85	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	48	203	52	26	6	100%	5.3	25.8%	13.1%	12.8%	2.8%	4.63	4.52	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	48	204	54	24	6	100%	5.4	26.4%	11.8%	14.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.30	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	48	204	55	22	6	100%	5.4	26.8%	11.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.26	4.15	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	201	54	21	6	100%	5.9	27.0%	10.5%	16.5%	2.8%	4.14	4.06	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	203	55	21	6	100%	6.0	27.2%	10.5%	16.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.04	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	198	54	21	6	100%	5.9	27.2%	10.6%	16.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.08	+0.7
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	24	101	26	13	3	100%	6.0	25.8%	13.1%	12.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.65	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	35	148	39	17	4	100%	5.8	26.4%	11.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.42	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	40	169	45	19	5	100%	5.7	26.8%	11.0%	15.7%	3.0%	4.38	4.27	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	48	19	5	100%	6.0	27.0%	10.5%	16.5%	3.0%	4.26	4.18	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	51	20	6	100%	6.3	27.2%	10.5%	16.7%	3.0%	4.20	4.16	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	49	19	6	100%	6.1	27.2%	10.6%	16.7%	3.1%	4.20	4.20	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	228	963	258	107	29	100%	5.7	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.36	3.90	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	226	94	25	100%	5.7	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.36	3.90	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		34	27	91	390	96	58	6	79%	2.7	24.7%	14.8%	9.8%	1.4%	2.36	3.67	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	59	200	854	211	126	12	79%	2.7	24.7%	14.8%	9.8%	1.4%	2.36	3.67	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Reds · 42 IPFIP 2.23 → 4.05 (+1.82)K% 39.5% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.46%	—	×0.680	26.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.43%	—	×1.250	15.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 12 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.47 (+1.37)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.73%	—	×1.180	16.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Reds · 33 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.99 (+1.21)K% 31.9% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.88%	—	×0.680	21.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.250	13.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.994	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryjeteri Merite (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.32	26.3%	14.3%	144	-0.53	—	—	—
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	82
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.18	25.3%	7.3%	154	-0.48	2.93	284	79
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	79
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	78
Fernando Sanchez L 2022 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	24.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.318	3.93	17.7%	6.9%	213	-0.24	3.09	332	77
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	76
Steve Hajjar L 2022 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.17	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.50	3.67	141	76
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	76
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	76
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	76
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	75
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	75
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	74
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	74
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	74
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	73
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	73
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	47	26.5%	11.7%	1.09	4.34
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*