Ryjeteri Merite — OGILVIE

Ryjeteri Merite P ACL Reds

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%22.8%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	3	3	4	16	4	2	0	100%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.45	2.57	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	3	3	4	16	4	2	0	100%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.45	2.57	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	3	3	4	16	4	2	0	100%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.45	2.55	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	33	138	44	15	0	79%	2.4	21.7%	13.6%	8.1%	0.0%	0.81	2.99	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	33	138	44	15	0	79%	2.4	21.7%	13.6%	8.1%	0.0%	0.81	2.99	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	11	33	138	44	15	0	79%	2.4	31.9%	10.9%	21.0%	0.0%	0.81	1.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	17	13	54	236	90	30	4	76%	3.2	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	3.31	4.14	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	17	13	54	236	90	30	4	76%	3.2	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	3.31	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	CIN	12	8	42	185	73	23	3	67%	3.5	39.5%	12.4%	27.0%	1.6%	2.98	2.23	—
2026	20	A RAW	CIN	5	5	12	51	17	7	1	100%	2.4	33.3%	13.7%	19.6%	2.0%	4.50	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	56	236	55	28	7	100%	5.6	23.2%	11.9%	11.4%	2.8%	4.65	4.58	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	59	248	60	27	7	100%	5.3	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.35	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	61	257	64	26	7	100%	5.5	24.8%	10.2%	14.7%	2.8%	4.29	4.18	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	62	263	67	26	7	100%	5.7	25.3%	9.8%	15.6%	2.7%	4.16	4.08	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	63	267	69	25	7	100%	5.7	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.01	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	63	267	69	25	7	100%	5.7	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	2.7%	4.02	3.99	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	263	68	25	7	100%	6.2	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.8%	4.02	4.02	+0.7
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	27	114	26	14	3	100%	5.4	23.2%	11.9%	11.4%	3.1%	4.77	4.70	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	43	182	44	20	5	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.47	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	51	215	53	22	6	100%	5.7	24.8%	10.2%	14.7%	3.0%	4.41	4.30	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	56	236	60	23	7	100%	5.6	25.3%	9.8%	15.6%	3.0%	4.28	4.20	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	58	245	63	23	7	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	2.9%	4.19	4.13	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	65	24	7	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	2.9%	4.14	4.11	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	65	24	7	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	353	1492	376	149	44	100%	5.6	25.2%	10.0%	15.2%	3.0%	4.31	3.87	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	213	84	25	100%	5.6	25.2%	10.0%	15.2%	3.0%	4.31	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		34	27	91	390	96	58	6	79%	2.7	24.7%	14.8%	9.8%	1.4%	2.36	3.67	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	59	200	854	211	126	12	79%	2.7	24.7%	14.8%	9.8%	1.4%	2.36	3.67	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryjeteri Merite (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	22.8%	13.1%	2.9%	—	4.36	24.1%	13.2%	176	-0.44	—	—	—
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	82
Fernando Sanchez L 2022 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	24.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.318	3.93	17.7%	6.9%	213	-0.24	3.09	332	81
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	80
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	79
Luke Little L 2021 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP-	4.02	25.8%	12.5%	2.8%	.200	2.91	27.9%	12.2%	155	-1.11	2.76	276	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	78
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	78
Benony Robles L 2021 · 3.65 FIP	20	SP-	3.65	22.3%	10.1%	2.1%	.262	5.09	19.2%	4.5%	135	+1.44	3.65	271	78
Julio Mendez L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	17	SP	3.83	23.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.302	4.61	16.3%	3.1%	155	+0.78	3.83	290	77
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	76
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	76
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	19.6%	10.6%	2.2%	.290	4.53	14.4%	-1.1%	83	+0.51	3.39	148	75
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	75
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	75
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	75
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	74
Ryan Rolison L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	21	SP	3.88	21.2%	9.2%	2.6%	.200	4.41	19.1%	11.5%	191	+0.53	3.81	386	74
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	73
Luis Moncada L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.87	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.06	3.81	296	73
Dalton Lehnen L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	2.8%	.398	4.49	15.8%	2.9%	189	+0.54	3.95	222	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	57	24.9%	10.3%	1.07	4.26
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22