Luke Sinnard

P Rome Emperors

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #179MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	16	16	72	2.86	2.38	28.3%	8.9%	—	K 21.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.34
2026	23	MIX3 levels	14	14	52	2.94	2.68	28.9%	7.6%	—	K 21.9% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	10	10	57	4.58	4.58	21.9%	10.8%	0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBATL	5	5	28	4.51	4.48	22.4%	10.4%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBATL	7	7	44	4.46	4.44	22.7%	10.3%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control50Command40FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsRyan Garcia (age 24) · Brody McCullough (age 23) · Trent Palmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%21.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5550

CTRL—50

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	21.4%	10.3%	11.0%	1.3%	2.86	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	21.4%	10.3%	11.0%	1.3%	2.86	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	28.3%	8.9%	19.4%	1.0%	2.86	2.38	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	2.8%	2.94	4.03	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	2.8%	2.94	4.03	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	28.9%	7.6%	21.3%	1.9%	2.94	2.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	10	10	57	241	53	26	7	100%	5.7	21.9%	10.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	66	278	62	29	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	66	278	63	29	8	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.44	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	65	274	62	28	8	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	28	118	26	12	3	100%	5.6	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	44	186	42	19	5	100%	6.3	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.44	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	50	211	48	22	6	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	21	122	516	117	53	15	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.08	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	87	25	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.08	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		30	30	124	515	111	52	10	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	1.9%	2.90	3.62	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	828	179	84	16	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	1.9%	2.90	3.62	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Sinnard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	21.9%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.46	22.6%	12.3%	197	-0.12	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	89
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	85
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	83
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	82
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	81
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	80
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	80
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	80
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	79
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	79
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	79
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	63	22.4%	10.4%	1.12	4.50
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*