Landon Harmon P Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 19 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%24.6%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
K: +0.9 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: -2.0 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: +1.2 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+1CONTACTSTAM: +6.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+7STAMTotal WAR: +0.70 (78 IP)+0.7WAR
0.00.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP50
STUF4555
CTRL4550
CMD2040
K†6065
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202619AFredericksburg Nationals541659125080%3.215.7%11.3%4.3%0.0%2.253.22+0.2
ROS19MLBWSH14146226365298100%4.524.6%10.8%13.8%3.0%4.414.41+0.1
ROS19MLBWSH024.6%10.8%13.8%3.0%4.414.41
2026 TOT19MLBWSH783227734823.8%10.4%13.4%2.4%3.974.17+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202720MLBWSH2121954031004212100%4.524.9%10.4%14.5%2.9%4.344.30+1.1
202821MLBWSH28281345671425616100%4.825.1%9.9%15.1%2.9%4.254.20+1.9
202922MLBWSH33331757391917021100%5.325.8%9.4%16.4%2.8%4.124.04+2.8
203023MLBWSH33331807602016921100%5.526.5%9.1%17.4%2.8%4.003.92+3.1
203124MLBWSH32321807602066721100%5.627.1%8.8%18.2%2.7%3.903.83+3.3
203225MLBWSH31311807602096621100%5.827.4%8.7%18.7%2.7%3.823.77+3.4
203326MLBWSH30301807602106621100%6.027.7%8.7%19.0%2.7%3.783.75+3.5
203427MLBWSH30301777492076621100%5.927.6%8.8%18.9%2.8%3.783.78+3.4
203528MLBWSH29291727262006521100%5.927.5%8.9%18.6%2.9%3.833.87+3.1
203629MLBWSH27271646941896321100%6.127.3%9.1%18.1%3.0%3.934.00+2.7
203730MLBWSH26261546521766221100%5.926.9%9.4%17.5%3.2%4.084.18+2.2
203831MLBWSH24241446081616021100%6.026.5%9.8%16.7%3.5%4.264.38+1.7
203932MLBWSH22221335621475721100%6.126.1%10.2%15.9%3.7%4.474.60+1.2
202720MLBWSH10104719849216100%4.724.9%10.4%14.5%2.9%4.344.30+0.1
202821MLBWSH2020984141044112100%4.925.1%9.9%15.1%2.9%4.254.20+1.3
202922MLBWSH29291486251615918100%5.125.8%9.4%16.4%2.8%4.124.04+2.4
203023MLBWSH30301626841816219100%5.426.5%9.1%17.4%2.8%4.003.92+2.8
203124MLBWSH30301667011906219100%5.527.1%8.8%18.2%2.7%3.903.83+3.0
203225MLBWSH29291687091956219100%5.827.4%8.7%18.7%2.7%3.823.77+3.2
203326MLBWSH28281717222006320100%6.127.7%8.7%19.0%2.7%3.783.75+3.3
203427MLBWSH28281687091966220100%6.027.6%8.8%18.9%2.8%3.783.78+3.2
203528MLBWSH27271636881896120100%6.027.5%8.9%18.6%2.9%3.833.87+2.9
203629MLBWSH26261566591806020100%6.027.3%9.1%18.1%3.0%3.934.00+2.6
203730MLBWSH24241476211675920100%6.126.9%9.4%17.5%3.2%4.084.18+2.1
203831MLBWSH23231375781535720100%6.026.5%9.8%16.7%3.5%4.264.38+1.6
203932MLBWSH21211275361405520100%6.026.1%10.2%15.9%3.7%4.474.60+1.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career326326185778412104722232100%5.726.8%9.2%17.6%3.0%4.003.63+38.6
/ 200 IP35352008442277825100%5.726.8%9.2%17.6%3.0%4.003.63+4.2
Career54165997080%3.215.7%11.3%4.3%0.0%2.253.22+0.2
/ 200 IP625020073811584080%3.215.7%11.3%4.3%0.0%2.253.22+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Landon Harmon (OGILVIE) 4.41 24.6%10.8%3.0% 4.15 25.4%15.5%405 -0.26
Sheng-En Lin R 2026 · 3.58 FIP 19 SP- 3.58 22.3%9.6%2.1%.223 4.19 17.8%3.4%61 +0.61 3.58 108 85
Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP 19 SP 4.77 21.4%10.3%4.0%.250 4.47 20.0%8.0%254 -0.30 3.83 358 85
Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.46 FIP 19 SP 3.46 21.9%8.7%2.0%.318 4.42 15.7%3.5%71 +0.96 3.46 115 83
Ramon Marquez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP 19 SP 3.98 21.1%8.8%2.8%.331 3.00 30.4%19.8%49 -0.98 3.00 104 80
Brandon Young R 2029 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 24.5%12.3%2.7%.297 3.46 22.4%14.1%150 -0.61 3.11 420 80
Alejandro Rivera R 2026 · 3.30 FIP 19 SP- 3.30 24.1%10.7%1.6%.302 3.30 116 79
Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP 19 SP- 4.12 19.3%8.9%2.8%.330 4.67 16.5%8.0%277 +0.55 4.12 386 79
Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP 19 SP- 4.11 20.6%12.9%2.0%.274 5.12 20.4%-0.0%141 +1.01 4.07 257 79
Anderson Brito R 2027 · 3.39 FIP 20 SP- 3.39 27.5%11.9%2.0%.231 3.83 23.2%7.4%82 +0.44 3.24 135 79
Reny Artiles R 2026 · 3.91 FIP 19 SP 3.91 24.2%12.4%2.3%.419 5.75 14.8%-6.5%109 +1.84 3.91 165 78
Brandon Bailey R 2029 · 3.37 FIP 22 SP- 3.37 24.6%9.9%2.0%.290 4.39 21.2%9.6%215 +1.02 3.37 306 78
Sean Sullivan R 2028 · 4.82 FIP 21 SP- 4.82 19.9%9.6%4.0%.298 4.56 17.0%8.2%243 -0.26 4.30 318 78
Nate Dohm R 2029 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP 4.86 21.1%11.5%3.8%.309 4.59 17.7%2.6%40 -0.27 4.59 115 78
Mikell Manzano R 2026 · 3.53 FIP 19 SP- 3.53 23.3%9.0%2.3%.388 4.29 9.9%1.4%72 +0.76 2.51 175 78
Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP 19 SP- 3.46 19.9%8.5%1.7%.277 3.92 20.6%9.1%93 +0.46 3.43 206 78
Andry Rondon R 2026 · 3.46 FIP 19 SP 3.46 19.8%8.2%1.8%.283 3.98 15.6%1.1%49 +0.52 3.26 105 77
Chad Donato R 2029 · 3.85 FIP 22 SP- 3.85 20.9%11.4%2.0%.333 3.99 21.4%12.6%184 +0.14 2.91 439 77
Jose Montero R 2026 · 3.77 FIP 19 SP 3.77 20.8%7.9%2.6%.377 3.97 15.8%4.6%234 +0.20 3.77 342 77
Moises Castillo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP 19 SP- 4.58 18.1%11.7%2.8%.269 4.08 19.4%5.0%65 -0.50 3.77 101 77
Michael Forret R 2027 · 3.97 FIP 20 SP- 3.97 21.8%11.8%2.2%.302 3.47 23.4%13.5%153 -0.50 2.56 253 76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION1415226.7%9.3%1.144.03
Jon Gray ('24)1012223.4%7.8%1.154.45
Lance Lynn ('24)915423.9%8.1%1.203.86
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65
Kyle Gibson ('24)1016419.6%8.3%1.144.46
James Paxton ('24)810625.8%7.7%1.123.89
Kenta Maeda ('24)812225.9%6.9%1.304.17