Robert Arias
CF Hill City Howlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL CLE Mendo… | 180 | .247/.369/.347 | 0 | 29 | 35 | — | .153/.257/.204 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKCLE | 198 | .287/.397/.402 | 2 | 29 | 72 | — | .234/.309/.314 |
| 2026 | 19 | ACLE | 190 | .291/.401/.462 | 5 | 21 | 109 | — | .265/.348/.404 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBCLE | 300 | .236/.311/.358 | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBCLE | 56 | .239/.315/.366 | 1 | 2 | 94 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBCLE | 128 | .241/.318/.373 | 3 | 4 | 96 | 0.3 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | — | 180 | 150 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 247 | 369 | 347 | 715 | 100 | 272 | 8 | 14 | 330 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 198 | 164 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 22 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 287 | 397 | 402 | 799 | 116 | 312 | 11 | 15 | 357 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Hill City Howlers | — | 190 | 158 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 27 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 401 | 462 | 863 | 171 | 320 | 14 | 15 | 380 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Mendoza | — | 180 | 157 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 19 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 153 | 257 | 204 | 461 | 51 | 175 | 11 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 198 | 175 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 234 | 309 | 314 | 624 | 80 | 257 | 15 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Hill City Howlers | — | 190 | 166 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 265 | 348 | 404 | 751 | 139 | 309 | 19 | 11 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Mendoza | — | 180 | 157 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 19 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 153 | 257 | 204 | 461 | 51 | 173 | 11 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL CLE Mendoza | — | 180 | 150 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 247 | 369 | 347 | 715 | 100 | 272 | 8 | 14 | 330 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 198 | 175 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 234 | 309 | 314 | 624 | 80 | 270 | 15 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Guardians | — | 198 | 164 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 22 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 287 | 397 | 402 | 799 | 116 | 312 | 11 | 15 | 357 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Hill City Howlers | — | 190 | 166 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 265 | 348 | 404 | 751 | 139 | 315 | 19 | 11 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A RAW | Hill City Howlers | — | 190 | 158 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 27 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 401 | 462 | 863 | 171 | 320 | 14 | 15 | 380 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Mendoza | — | 180 | 156 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 19 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 154 | 257 | 205 | 462 | 51 | 175 | 11 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 198 | 177 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 232 | 309 | 311 | 620 | 79 | 257 | 15 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Hill City Howlers | — | 190 | 167 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 263 | 348 | 401 | 749 | 138 | 309 | 19 | 11 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Mendoza | — | 180 | 156 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 19 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 154 | 257 | 205 | 462 | 51 | 175 | 11 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 198 | 177 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 232 | 309 | 311 | 620 | 79 | 257 | 15 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Hill City Howlers | — | 190 | 167 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 263 | 348 | 401 | 749 | 138 | 309 | 19 | 11 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | CLE | 0% | 300 | 268 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 66 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 236 | 311 | 358 | 669 | 122 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 301 | 90 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | CLE | 34% | 164 | 147 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 239 | 315 | 367 | 682 | 128 | 291 | 21 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | CLE | 48% | 265 | 237 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 57 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 241 | 318 | 375 | 692 | 133 | 291 | 22 | 9 | 311 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | CLE | 54% | 355 | 316 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 76 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 243 | 320 | 380 | 700 | 137 | 292 | 21 | 9 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 55% | 413 | 369 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 88 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 244 | 321 | 384 | 705 | 140 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 56% | 445 | 397 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 95 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 245 | 321 | 387 | 708 | 142 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 56% | 461 | 412 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 245 | 321 | 386 | 707 | 141 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 55% | 467 | 417 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 100 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 243 | 320 | 383 | 704 | 140 | 292 | 21 | 9 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | CLE | 55% | 465 | 415 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 100 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 242 | 318 | 379 | 697 | 137 | 291 | 22 | 9 | 312 | 97 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | CLE | 53% | 455 | 407 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 100 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 239 | 315 | 372 | 688 | 133 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 308 | 95 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | CLE | 53% | 445 | 399 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 99 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 236 | 312 | 364 | 676 | 128 | 288 | 22 | 9 | 304 | 92 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | CLE | 52% | 428 | 383 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 97 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 307 | 354 | 661 | 122 | 285 | 23 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | CLE | 34% | 56 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 315 | 366 | 681 | 127 | 291 | 21 | 9 | 306 | 94 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | CLE | 48% | 128 | 114 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 241 | 318 | 373 | 691 | 132 | 291 | 21 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | CLE | 54% | 193 | 171 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 41 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 243 | 320 | 379 | 698 | 136 | 292 | 21 | 9 | 313 | 98 | -0 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 55% | 229 | 204 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 49 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 245 | 321 | 383 | 704 | 138 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 56% | 249 | 222 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 53 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 245 | 321 | 385 | 707 | 140 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 56% | 259 | 231 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 55 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 245 | 321 | 385 | 706 | 140 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 55% | 258 | 230 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 55 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 244 | 320 | 382 | 702 | 138 | 292 | 21 | 9 | 314 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | CLE | 55% | 255 | 228 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 55 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 242 | 318 | 377 | 696 | 136 | 291 | 22 | 9 | 312 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | CLE | 53% | 243 | 217 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 239 | 315 | 371 | 687 | 132 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 308 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | CLE | 53% | 234 | 209 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 236 | 312 | 363 | 675 | 127 | 288 | 22 | 9 | 304 | 92 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | CLE | 52% | 223 | 199 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 232 | 307 | 353 | 661 | 121 | 286 | 22 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2327 | 2076 | 500 | 98 | 10 | 52 | 213 | 502 | 19 | 57 | 18 | 241 | 317 | 373 | 690 | 132 | 292 | 22 | 9 | 311 | 94 | -9 | +4 | -2 | +8 | +50 | 5.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 140 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 140 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 241 | 317 | 376 | 693 | 134 | 292 | 22 | 9 | 311 | 94 | -3 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5041 | 4495 | 1072 | 206 | 30 | 107 | 467 | 1055 | 40 | 188 | 45 | 238 | 316 | 369 | 685 | 131 | 287 | 21 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -20 | +10 | -4 | +16 | +97 | 10.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 139 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 136 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 240 | 316 | 372 | 689 | 133 | 288 | 21 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AHill City Howlers · 190 PAwOBA .375 → .330 (−45)K% 14.2% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.21% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 22.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.15% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .375 → .330; ISO .171 → .149; BABIP .320 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Guardians · 198 PAwOBA .356 → .274 (−82)K% 11.1% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.041 | ×1.440 | — | — | 15.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.65% | ÷1.018 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.24% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 19.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.75% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.075 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.388 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.80% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 97, 2B 96, 3B 115, K 108, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .356 → .274; ISO .116 → .084; BABIP .312 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL CLE Mendoza · 180 PAwOBA .324 → .220 (−104)K% 8.3% → 10.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 10.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.89% | ÷0.986 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.26% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | ×0.988 | ×1.008 | 13.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.091 | ×0.600 | ×0.988 | ×1.008 | 2.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.96% | ÷1.045 | ×0.600 | ×0.988 | ×1.008 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .324 → .220; ISO .100 → .058; BABIP .272 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).