Robert Arias — OGILVIE

Robert AriasCF Hill City Howlers

Age 19 L/L 6'1" / 168 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION190 act + 17 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .294 / .312

PA17

HR0

K%24

BB%6

BABIP296

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-2	$9M	+1.1	$5M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$28M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	150	37	7	4	0	25	15	4	29	4	247	369	347	715	100	272	8	14	330	109	+2	+4	—	—	+4	1.0
2025	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	198	164	47	11	1	2	29	22	1	29	4	287	397	402	799	116	312	11	15	357	128	+7	+4	—	—	+4	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	159	30	5	3	0	16	22	4	29	4	189	279	258	537	69	209	12	9	237	47	-11	+4	—	—	+4	-0.3
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	175	40	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	229	304	309	613	80	255	15	9	272	70	-7	+4	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	159	30	5	3	0	16	22	4	29	4	189	279	258	537	69	217	12	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	150	37	7	4	0	25	15	4	29	4	247	369	347	715	100	272	8	14	330	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	175	40	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	229	304	309	613	80	264	15	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	—	198	164	47	11	1	2	29	22	1	29	4	287	397	402	799	116	312	11	15	357	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	158	30	5	3	0	16	22	4	29	4	190	279	259	539	70	209	12	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	177	40	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	226	304	305	609	79	255	15	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	158	30	5	3	0	16	22	4	29	4	190	279	259	539	70	209	12	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	177	40	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	226	304	305	609	79	255	15	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	CLE	—	190	169	45	9	1	5	18	38	0	21	7	266	337	420	757	154	312	20	9	323	105	+1	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A RAW	CLE	—	190	158	46	10	1	5	29	27	0	21	7	291	401	462	863	171	320	14	15	380	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	CLE	0%	17	16	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	250	294	312	607	62	297	24	6	308	94	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	CLE	—	207	185	49	10	1	5	19	42	0	22	7	265	333	411	744	146	314	20	9	322	104	+1	+2	-0	+1	+4	0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CLE	25%	278	249	62	12	2	6	25	58	2	9	3	249	322	386	708	137	298	21	9	314	99	-0	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.7
2028	21	MLB MLE	CLE	38%	393	352	87	17	2	9	35	81	3	12	3	247	321	384	704	136	298	21	9	319	102	+1	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	CLE	45%	473	423	108	21	3	12	43	96	4	14	4	255	330	404	734	149	299	20	9	323	105	+3	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	CLE	49%	525	467	119	23	3	13	48	106	5	15	4	255	331	400	731	146	299	20	9	326	107	+4	+1	-1	+2	+11	1.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	CLE	50%	558	497	127	25	3	14	51	112	5	15	4	256	331	402	733	147	300	20	9	328	108	+5	+1	-1	+2	+12	2.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	CLE	51%	578	515	131	25	3	15	53	116	5	15	4	254	330	402	732	148	300	20	9	329	109	+6	+1	-1	+2	+13	2.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	CLE	51%	587	523	134	26	3	16	54	117	5	16	4	256	332	409	741	153	300	20	9	330	109	+6	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	CLE	50%	589	524	134	26	3	16	55	118	5	15	4	256	332	408	741	153	300	20	9	330	109	+7	+1	-1	+2	+13	2.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	CLE	50%	585	520	132	26	3	15	55	118	5	15	4	254	331	402	733	148	299	20	9	329	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+13	2.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	CLE	49%	575	510	130	25	3	15	55	117	5	14	4	255	333	404	737	149	299	20	10	327	107	+5	+1	-3	+2	+12	1.8
2037	30	MLB MLE	CLE	48%	565	501	126	24	3	14	54	117	5	13	4	251	330	395	726	144	298	21	10	324	105	+4	+1	-4	+2	+12	1.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	CLE	47%	551	488	121	23	3	13	53	115	5	12	3	248	328	387	715	139	295	21	10	320	103	+2	+1	-4	+2	+12	1.3
2039	32	MLB MLE	CLE	47%	533	472	115	22	2	12	51	114	5	11	3	244	324	375	699	131	292	21	10	314	99	-1	+1	-5	+2	+12	0.9
2040	33	MLB MLE	CLE	47%	503	446	106	19	2	11	48	110	4	10	3	238	317	363	680	126	288	22	10	307	94	-4	+1	-5	+2	+11	0.5
2041	34	MLB MLE	CLE	42%	457	407	94	16	2	10	43	103	4	8	2	231	311	354	664	123	283	23	9	298	88	-7	+1	-6	+2	+10	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	CLE	25%	69	62	14	3	0	1	6	14	1	2	1	226	304	323	627	97	297	20	9	307	99	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	CLE	38%	150	134	34	7	1	3	14	31	1	5	1	254	329	388	717	134	298	21	9	312	102	+0	+1	-0	+1	+3	0.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	CLE	45%	215	191	48	9	1	5	20	44	2	6	2	251	329	387	716	136	298	20	9	316	105	+1	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	CLE	49%	259	231	58	11	1	7	24	52	2	7	2	251	327	398	725	147	299	20	9	318	107	+2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.9
2031	24	MLB CTX	CLE	50%	281	250	63	12	1	7	26	56	3	8	2	252	330	392	722	140	299	20	9	320	108	+3	+1	-1	+1	+6	1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	CLE	51%	294	262	67	13	1	8	27	59	3	8	2	256	332	405	737	149	299	20	9	321	109	+3	+1	-1	+1	+6	1.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	CLE	51%	301	267	68	13	1	8	28	60	3	8	2	255	332	401	733	146	299	20	9	322	109	+3	+1	-1	+1	+7	1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	CLE	50%	297	264	67	13	1	8	28	60	3	8	2	254	332	402	734	148	299	20	9	322	109	+3	+1	-1	+1	+6	1.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	CLE	50%	293	260	66	13	1	8	28	59	3	7	2	254	333	404	737	150	299	20	10	321	109	+3	+1	-1	+1	+6	1.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	CLE	49%	280	248	62	12	1	7	27	57	3	7	2	250	331	391	722	141	298	20	10	319	107	+2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	CLE	48%	270	240	61	12	1	7	26	56	2	6	2	254	332	400	732	146	297	21	10	316	105	+2	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	CLE	47%	261	232	57	11	1	6	25	55	2	6	2	246	324	379	704	134	295	21	10	313	103	+1	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.6
2039	32	MLB CTX	CLE	47%	250	222	54	10	1	6	24	53	2	5	1	243	323	378	701	135	292	21	10	307	99	-0	+1	-2	+1	+5	0.4
2040	33	MLB CTX	CLE	47%	235	209	49	9	1	5	22	51	2	5	1	234	313	359	672	124	288	22	9	300	94	-2	+1	-3	+1	+5	0.2
2041	34	MLB CTX	CLE	42%	193	171	40	7	1	4	18	43	2	4	1	234	314	357	671	123	282	22	9	292	88	-3	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3648	3243	808	155	14	90	343	750	34	92	25	249	327	389	716	140	297	21	9	315	102	+19	+8	-18	+13	+79	10.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	144	28	2	16	61	134	6	16	4	249	327	388	715	138	297	21	9	315	102	+3	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8145	7244	1800	345	44	192	758	1654	72	253	61	248	326	388	714	139	295	20	9	319	102	+38	+18	-39	+28	+168	21.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	144	28	4	15	60	132	6	20	5	249	326	389	715	140	297	20	9	319	102	+3	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#2Rob Mackowiaklast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,618 PA	3.9	2,618	64	49	259	332	405	-11	-3	8.7	8.9
/162	664	16	12	-2.7	-0.8	2.2	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.8	3,835	94	97	251	324	394	-21	+7	10.6	8.8
/162	664	16	17	-3.7	+1.2	1.8	pk7: 7
#3Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#6Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	4.2	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
/162	664	12	21	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Arias (OGILVIE)	19	25→57	30→42	60→62	55	243/314/367	124	297	4	10	21%	9%	94	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	55	216/324/330	114	293	8	18	27%	12%	91	+0.6	237/321/380	143	308	13	20	25%	10%	100	+1.3	237/324/389	152	306	14	21	25%	10%	100	+0.9
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	222/274/319	97	291	7	16	25%	6%	68	-1.0	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	49	219/296/333	114	288	7	10	25%	9%	80	-0.2	198/270/312	114	300	8	13	34%	9%	65	-1.2	236/319/383	147	308	15	24	26%	11%	96	+0.7
●Brice Turang 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→50	53→60	49	216/286/282	66	296	3	14	26%	9%	64	-1.3	213/285/281	68	287	4	16	25%	9%	63	-1.3	266/344/401	135	328	13	29	21%	10%	110	+2.1
●Trent Grisham 2016 · A	19	49	38→60	56→55	48	230/300/314	84	311	4	19	26%	8%	76	-0.4	198/281/285	87	301	6	16	32%	10%	63	-1.3	240/327/432	192	284	22	14	23%	10%	111	+1.7
●Eddie Rosario 2011 · A	19	46→56	42→60	54→50	44	226/267/328	103	271	9	19	21%	5%	67	-1.1	247/286/406	159	305	17	12	24%	5%	93	+0.8	280/316/488	208	299	28	7	17%	5%	120	+2.7
●Alex Verdugo 2015 · A	19	53→58	40→50	56→45	48	252/304/355	103	287	6	11	15%	6%	86	+0.3	254/291/360	106	291	9	7	16%	5%	83	+0.1	288/348/443	155	325	15	7	16%	8%	119	+1.8
●Edward Olivares 2016 · A	20	43→53	40→55	55	43	203/292/296	93	267	6	17	25%	6%	71	-0.8	214/269/338	124	276	11	13	26%	5%	71	-0.8	262/319/433	171	298	19	16	19%	6%	108	+1.2
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
●Esteury Ruiz 2018 · A	19	47→57	43→50	57→70	38	227/269/358	131	311	8	19	29%	5%	74	-0.5	199/248/301	102	310	8	27	37%	5%	54	-2.0	264/338/395	131	327	12	74	22%	6%	107	+1.2
●Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	213/301/277	64	275	3	17	22%	11%	69	-0.9	218/303/296	78	282	4	15	22%	9%	74	-0.5	257/357/385	127	281	12	19	12%	12%	112	+2.1
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	51→60	39→50	48→55	48	240/307/330	90	287	6	11	18%	6%	83	+0.1	233/289/339	106	300	7	23	24%	5%	78	-0.3	260/325/413	154	312	16	25	21%	5%	105	+1.5
✕Abraham Almonte 2008 · A	19	42→52	42→55	50→55	49	206/280/312	106	268	10	19	26%	9%	69	-0.9	213/262/309	96	284	7	19	26%	6%	60	-1.6	228/326/410	182	278	20	11	24%	12%	106	+1.0
●Aaron Hicks 2009 · A	19	48→56	42→55	55	47	231/289/340	110	295	8	12	24%	8%	78	-0.3	218/294/324	106	303	7	12	27%	10%	76	-0.4	244/355/443	199	275	25	11	21%	14%	124	+2.1
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→40	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	66	-1.1	253/298/346	93	309	6	11	19%	6%	82	+0.0	272/321/361	89	314	4	8	14%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Victor Robles 2016 · A	19	50→52	42→50	55→60	45	240/311/353	113	291	8	21	20%	6%	90	+0.6	242/308/360	118	303	8	23	22%	5%	91	+0.6	246/315/392	146	305	12	27	22%	6%	97	+0.9
✕Alexi Amarista 2008 · A	19	51→60	41→45	51→55	47	246/294/352	105	276	8	13	14%	6%	82	+0.0	260/308/358	98	300	5	18	14%	6%	88	+0.5	271/316/372	101	311	4	21	14%	5%	92	+0.6
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	50→58	37→45	50	49	234/297/309	75	303	3	13	23%	8%	74	-0.6	243/310/336	93	291	7	13	18%	9%	85	+0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	250/296/311	61	297	1	19	15%	6%	73	-0.6	302/361/382	79	347	4	36	13%	8%	110	+1.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps