Robert Arias — OGILVIE

Robert AriasOF Hill City Howlers

Age 19 L/L 6'1" / 168 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION190 act + 126 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .318 / .370

PA126

HR2

SB7

K%21

BB%9

BABIP304

ISO123

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$11M	+$10M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$10M	+$8M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+2.1	$9M	+$6M
2035	Arb-3	$10M	+1.9	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$24M		$59M	+$48M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	159	29	4	3	0	16	22	4	29	4	182	274	245	519	63	210	12	9	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	150	37	7	4	0	25	15	4	29	4	247	369	347	715	100	272	8	14	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	198	176	41	9	1	1	17	29	1	29	4	233	304	312	617	80	267	15	9	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	198	164	47	11	1	2	29	22	1	29	4	287	397	402	799	116	312	11	15	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	CLE	—	190	169	45	9	1	5	18	38	0	21	7	266	337	420	757	154	312	20	9	323	105	+1	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.7
YTD	19	A	CLE	—	190	158	46	10	1	5	29	27	0	21	7	291	401	462	863	171	320	14	15	380	149	+11	+1	+0	-1	+5	1.7
ROS	19	A	CLE	0%	126	113	28	6	1	2	11	27	1	7	2	246	318	370	688	123	297	21	9	307	93	-1	+1	-0	-1	+4	0.2
ROS	19	MLB	CLE	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		298	—	—	303	90	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	A	CLE	—	190	170	45	9	1	5	18	38	0	21	7	265	337	418	755	153	310	20	9	323	105	+1	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.7
TOT	19	A	CLE	—	316	282	73	15	2	7	29	65	1	28	9	258	329	400	729	142	309	21	9	317	100	+0	+2	-0	-2	+9	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	CLE	25%	334	298	74	14	2	7	30	70	3	11	3	248	323	379	702	131	298	21	9	313	98	-1	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.7
2028	21	MLB	CLE	38%	434	388	97	19	2	10	39	90	4	13	4	250	325	387	711	137	299	21	9	319	102	+1	+1	-1	-3	+12	1.1
2029	22	MLB	CLE	45%	502	447	113	22	3	12	46	103	4	15	4	253	328	396	724	143	299	21	9	323	105	+3	+1	-1	-3	+14	1.5
2030	23	MLB	CLE	49%	545	485	124	24	3	14	50	111	5	15	4	256	331	404	736	148	300	20	9	325	107	+4	+1	-1	-3	+15	1.8
2031	24	MLB	CLE	50%	571	508	130	25	3	15	53	116	5	16	4	256	332	406	738	150	300	20	9	327	109	+6	+2	-1	-3	+16	2.0
2032	25	MLB	CLE	51%	586	522	133	26	3	15	54	118	5	16	4	255	330	402	733	148	300	20	9	329	110	+6	+2	-1	-4	+17	2.1
2033	26	MLB	CLE	51%	593	528	135	26	3	16	55	120	5	16	4	256	332	407	739	152	300	20	9	329	110	+7	+2	-1	-4	+17	2.1
2034	27	MLB	CLE	50%	592	526	135	26	3	16	56	120	5	16	4	257	334	409	743	152	300	20	9	329	110	+7	+2	-1	-4	+17	2.1
2035	28	MLB	CLE	50%	587	521	132	25	3	15	56	120	5	15	4	253	332	399	731	146	300	20	10	328	109	+6	+1	-2	-4	+17	1.9
2036	29	MLB	CLE	49%	577	512	130	25	3	15	55	119	5	14	4	254	332	402	735	148	299	21	10	326	108	+5	+1	-2	-3	+16	1.7
2037	30	MLB	CLE	48%	566	502	126	24	3	14	54	118	5	13	4	251	330	394	724	143	298	21	10	323	106	+4	+1	-3	-3	+16	1.5
2038	31	MLB	CLE	47%	552	489	121	23	3	13	53	117	5	12	3	247	327	387	714	139	296	21	10	319	102	+2	+1	-4	-3	+16	1.2
2039	32	MLB	CLE	47%	533	472	114	21	2	12	51	115	5	11	3	242	322	371	693	129	293	22	10	314	98	-1	+1	-4	-3	+15	0.8
2040	33	MLB	CLE	47%	504	447	106	19	2	11	48	111	4	10	3	237	317	362	679	125	289	22	10	307	93	-4	+1	-5	-3	+14	0.3
2041	34	MLB	CLE	42%	457	407	93	16	2	9	43	104	4	8	2	229	308	344	652	115	283	23	9	298	86	-7	+1	-6	-3	+13	-0.2
2042	35	MLB	CLE	38%	401	358	80	13	2	8	37	94	3	7	2	223	302	338	639	115	276	23	9	288	78	-10	+1	-6	-2	+11	-0.7
2027	20	MLB	CLE	25%	83	75	19	4	0	2	7	17	1	3	1	253	325	387	712	133	299	20	8	308	94	-1	+0	-0	-0	+2	0.1
2028	21	MLB	CLE	38%	166	149	37	7	1	4	15	34	1	5	1	248	321	389	710	141	299	20	9	313	97	-0	+1	-0	-1	+5	0.4
2029	22	MLB	CLE	45%	228	203	52	10	1	6	21	47	2	7	2	256	332	404	736	148	300	21	9	316	100	+0	+1	-0	-1	+6	0.6
2030	23	MLB	CLE	49%	268	239	62	12	2	7	25	55	2	7	2	259	335	414	749	155	300	21	9	319	102	+1	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.7
2031	24	MLB	CLE	50%	287	256	66	13	2	7	26	58	3	8	2	258	333	406	740	148	301	20	9	321	104	+1	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.8
2032	25	MLB	CLE	51%	298	265	68	13	2	8	28	60	3	8	2	257	334	411	746	155	301	20	9	322	105	+2	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.9
2033	26	MLB	CLE	51%	304	270	69	13	2	8	28	61	3	8	2	256	332	407	740	152	301	20	9	322	105	+2	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.9
2034	27	MLB	CLE	50%	299	266	68	13	2	8	28	60	3	8	2	256	333	410	743	154	301	20	9	322	105	+2	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.9
2035	28	MLB	CLE	50%	294	261	67	13	2	8	28	60	3	7	2	257	336	414	749	157	300	20	10	321	104	+1	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.8
2036	29	MLB	CLE	49%	281	249	62	12	1	7	27	58	3	7	2	249	330	390	719	141	300	21	10	320	103	+1	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.7
2037	30	MLB	CLE	48%	271	241	61	12	1	7	26	56	2	6	2	253	331	398	729	145	298	21	10	317	101	+0	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.5
2038	31	MLB	CLE	47%	261	232	57	11	1	6	25	55	2	6	2	246	324	379	704	134	296	21	10	313	98	-1	+0	-2	-2	+7	0.4
2039	32	MLB	CLE	47%	250	222	54	10	1	6	24	54	2	5	1	243	323	378	701	135	293	22	10	308	94	-2	+1	-2	-2	+7	0.2
2040	33	MLB	CLE	47%	235	209	49	9	1	5	22	52	2	5	1	234	313	359	672	124	289	22	9	301	88	-3	+1	-2	-1	+7	0.0
2041	34	MLB	CLE	42%	193	171	40	7	1	4	18	44	2	4	1	234	314	357	671	123	283	23	9	292	82	-4	+0	-2	-1	+5	-0.2
2042	35	MLB	CLE	38%	151	135	30	5	1	3	14	35	1	3	1	222	300	341	641	119	277	23	9	282	74	-4	+0	-2	-1	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3869	3444	861	164	21	96	362	806	35	97	26	250	328	393	721	143	299	21	9	314	99	-6	+9	-17	-23	+110	7.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	145	28	4	16	61	135	6	16	4	250	329	396	724	145	299	21	9	314	99	-1	+2	-3	-4	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	8838	7858	1941	367	47	205	824	1824	78	273	66	247	325	384	708	137	295	21	9	317	101	+6	+28	-37	-53	+250	19.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	142	27	3	15	61	134	6	20	5	246	325	381	705	135	293	21	9	317	101	+0	+2	-3	-4	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	150	37	7	4	0	25	15	4	29	4	247	369	347	715	100	272	8	14	330	111	+2	+4	—	—	+5	1.2
2025	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	198	164	47	11	1	2	29	22	1	29	4	287	397	402	799	116	312	11	15	357	132	+7	+4	—	—	+6	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gary Matthews Jr.last yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,572 PA	11	4,572	108	93	258	331	407	-5	-10	16.2	17.2
	/162	664	16	14	258	331	407	-0.7	-1.4	2.3	pk7: 18
#2Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	8	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	20	24	260	321	441	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,094	98	102	249	323	390	-25	+7	10.6	8.9
	/162	664	16	17	249	323	390	-4.0	+1.1	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#4José Hernándezlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,901 PA	7	2,901	95	17	254	316	413	-11	+5	8.5	8.5
	/162	664	22	4	254	316	413	-2.4	+1.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#6Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	6	2,335	57	47	263	326	406	-24	-8	5.3	5.3
#6Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	/162	664	16	13	263	326	406	-6.7	-2.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Arias (OGILVIE)	19	25→57	30→42	60→62	55	258/329/400	142	309	7	28	21%	9%	100	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→58	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	73	-0.1	221/273/317	96	291	7	16	25%	6%	62	-0.9	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
●Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→54	42→55	52→55	49	219/296/333	114	288	7	10	25%	9%	77	+0.1	195/265/303	108	302	7	13	35%	8%	56	-1.3	240/322/392	152	311	15	24	26%	11%	100	+1.2
●Gavin Lux 2018 · A	20	46→56	39→50	53→50	44	219/275/308	89	291	6	13	26%	7%	61	-1.0	244/298/391	147	312	16	11	26%	7%	92	+1.2	266/334/421	155	333	15	8	23%	9%	111	+2.1
●Brice Turang 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→50	53→60	49	216/286/282	66	296	3	14	26%	9%	59	-1.1	214/287/280	66	290	4	16	25%	9%	59	-1.1	270/345/412	142	330	14	32	21%	10%	114	+2.5
●Alex Verdugo 2015 · A	19	53→58	40→50	56→45	48	252/304/355	103	287	6	11	15%	6%	85	+0.7	254/292/365	111	290	10	7	16%	5%	82	+0.5	285/346/439	154	321	16	7	16%	8%	120	+2.1
●Trent Grisham 2016 · A	19	49→50	38→60	56→55	48	230/300/314	84	311	4	19	26%	8%	73	-0.1	197/282/285	88	302	6	16	33%	10%	59	-1.1	244/330/446	203	288	24	14	23%	10%	118	+2.3
●Royce Lewis 2018 · A	19	45→49	41→60	55→50	47	217/288/313	96	267	8	16	21%	7%	69	-0.4	215/262/314	99	286	8	16	27%	5%	57	-1.2	261/322/478	218	301	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	51→60	39→50	49→55	48	241/309/334	92	287	6	11	18%	7%	82	+0.5	233/291/345	112	300	8	23	24%	5%	78	+0.2	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
●Eddie Rosario 2011 · A	19	46→56	42→60	54→50	44	226/267/328	103	271	9	19	21%	5%	63	-0.9	248/288/408	160	306	17	12	24%	5%	92	+1.2	280/315/487	207	298	28	7	17%	5%	122	+3.2
●Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→55	43→60	57→50	42	218/277/333	115	296	10	13	29%	7%	69	-0.4	234/291/434	200	292	25	13	28%	7%	102	+1.9	227/288/440	213	276	26	14	28%	7%	100	+1.5
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→45	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	62	-0.9	252/298/346	94	308	6	11	19%	6%	80	+0.4	274/322/369	95	316	5	8	14%	6%	95	+1.2
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	41→50	50→40	52	218/297/315	97	275	8	8	23%	10%	73	-0.1	225/288/361	136	282	16	4	25%	8%	81	+0.4	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
●Abraham Almonte 2008 · A	19	42→52	42→55	50→55	49	206/280/312	106	268	10	19	26%	9%	65	-0.7	213/262/309	96	284	7	19	26%	6%	55	-1.4	227/326/416	190	273	22	11	24%	13%	108	+1.4
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	50→58	37→45	50	49	234/297/309	75	304	3	13	23%	8%	70	-0.3	246/314/341	95	294	8	13	18%	9%	86	+0.8	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
●Edward Olivares 2016 · A	20	43→53	40→55	55	43	203/292/296	93	267	6	17	25%	6%	67	-0.5	214/268/343	129	275	13	13	26%	4%	68	-0.5	264/321/443	179	299	21	16	19%	6%	113	+1.6
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→50	58→50	55	210/300/285	75	268	4	16	22%	11%	66	-0.6	232/290/328	96	308	7	11	25%	7%	72	-0.2	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
●Esteury Ruiz 2018 · A	19	47→57	43→50	57→70	38	227/269/358	131	311	8	19	29%	5%	71	-0.3	199/249/302	103	312	8	27	37%	5%	49	-1.8	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	43	223/277/358	134	288	13	16	27%	6%	76	+0.0	227/293/391	164	273	19	14	24%	8%	91	+1.1	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
★Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	213/301/277	64	275	3	17	22%	11%	65	-0.7	215/298/294	79	281	4	15	23%	9%	69	-0.4	259/359/388	129	285	11	20	12%	12%	115	+2.3