Robert Arias

CF Hill City Howlers
Age 20 L/L 6'1" / 168 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#547ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL CLE Mendo…180.247/.369/.34702935—.153/.257/.204
202518ROKCLE198.287/.397/.40222972—.234/.309/.314
202619ACLE190.291/.401/.462521109—.265/.348/.404
2027PROJMLE20MLBCLE300.236/.311/.35868900.1
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBCLE56.239/.315/.36612940.1
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBCLE128.241/.318/.37334960.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$6M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
K%91
wRC+86
Whiff%86
wOBA84
Z-Con%83
Speed77
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 72%
CompsAkil Baddoo (age 20) · Evan Carter (age 20) · Jarred Kelenic (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 110 proj PA
wRC+†90
AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .309 / .354
PA110
HR2
K%22
BB%9
ISO122
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +2.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.30.50.70.70.80.70.627282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2033Arb-1$4M+0.8$2M+$0.1M
2034Arb-2$6M+0.7$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-3$7M+0.6$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $6M $11M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL CLE Mendoza — 180150 37740 25154 294 247369347715 100272 814 330 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROKACL Guardians — 198164 471112 29221 294 287397402799 116312 1115 357 72 — — — — — —
202619 AHill City Howlers — 190158 461015 29270 217 291401462863 171320 1415 380 109 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 180157 24420 18194 294 153257204461 51175 1110 220 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEACL Guardians — 198175 41911 18301 294 234309314624 80257 159 274 72 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEHill City Howlers — 190166 44914 21370 217 265348404751 139309 1911 330 109 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 180157 24420 18194 294 153257204461 51173 1110 220 35 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL CLE Mendoza — 180150 37740 25154 294 247369347715 100272 814 330 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEACL Guardians — 198175 41911 18301 294 234309314624 80270 159 274 72 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWACL Guardians — 198164 471112 29221 294 287397402799 116312 1115 357 72 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEHill City Howlers — 190166 44914 21370 217 265348404751 139315 1911 330 109 — — — — — —
202619 A RAWHill City Howlers — 190158 461015 29270 217 291401462863 171320 1415 380 109 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 180156 24420 18194 294 154257205462 51175 1110 220 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEACL Guardians — 198177 41911 18301 294 232309311620 79257 159 274 72 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEHill City Howlers — 190167 44914 21370 217 263348401749 138309 1911 330 109 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 180156 24420 18194 294 154257205462 51175 1110 220 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEACL Guardians — 198177 41911 18301 294 232309311620 79257 159 274 72 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEHill City Howlers — 190167 44914 21370 217 263348401749 138309 1911 330 109 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLECLE 0% 300268 641226 27662 82 236311358669 122290 229 301 90 -4 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLECLE 34% 164147 35713 15351 51 239315367682 128291 219 307 94 -1 +1 -1 +1 +4 0.3
202922 MLB MLECLE 48% 265237 581126 24572 72 241318375692 133291 229 311 96 -1 +1 -0 +1 +6 0.6
203023 MLB MLECLE 54% 355316 771528 33763 102 243320380700 137292 219 313 98 -1 +1 -0 +1 +8 1.0
203124 MLB MLECLE 55% 413369 9017210 38883 113 244321384705 140293 219 316 100 -0 +1 +1 +1 +9 1.2
203225 MLB MLECLE 56% 445397 9819311 41954 123 245321387708 142293 219 316 100 +0 +1 +1 +2 +10 1.3
203326 MLB MLECLE 56% 461412 10019311 42984 123 245321386707 141293 219 316 100 +0 +1 +1 +2 +10 1.4
203427 MLB MLECLE 55% 467417 10119311 431004 123 243320383704 140292 219 315 99 -0 +1 +1 +2 +10 1.3
203528 MLB MLECLE 55% 465415 10119311 431004 113 242318379697 137291 229 312 97 -1 +1 -0 +2 +10 1.1
203629 MLB MLECLE 53% 455407 9719210 421003 103 239315372688 133290 229 308 95 -3 +1 -1 +2 +10 0.9
203730 MLB MLECLE 53% 445399 9418210 40993 93 236312364676 128288 229 304 92 -4 +1 -1 +2 +10 0.6
203831 MLB MLECLE 52% 428383 891729 39973 73 232307354661 122285 239 298 88 -6 +0 -2 +2 +9 0.3
202821 MLB CTXCLE 34% 5651 11201 5120 20 239315366681 127291 219 306 94 -0 +0 -0 +0 +1 0.1
202922 MLB CTXCLE 48% 128114 28513 12271 41 241318373691 132291 219 310 96 -1 +0 -0 +0 +3 0.3
203023 MLB CTXCLE 54% 193171 41814 18412 51 243320379698 136292 219 313 98 -0 +1 -0 +1 +4 0.5
203124 MLB CTXCLE 55% 229204 501015 21492 62 245321383704 138293 219 315 100 -0 +0 +0 +1 +5 0.7
203225 MLB CTXCLE 56% 249222 551116 23532 72 245321385707 140293 219 316 100 +0 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.7
203326 MLB CTXCLE 56% 259231 561116 24552 72 245321385706 140293 219 316 100 +0 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.8
203427 MLB CTXCLE 55% 258230 561116 24552 62 244320382702 138292 219 314 99 -0 +0 +0 +1 +6 0.7
203528 MLB CTXCLE 55% 255228 551116 23552 62 242318377696 136291 229 312 97 -1 +0 -0 +1 +6 0.6
203629 MLB CTXCLE 53% 243217 511015 22532 52 239315371687 132290 229 308 95 -1 +0 -0 +1 +5 0.5
203730 MLB CTXCLE 53% 234209 501015 21522 52 236312363675 127288 229 304 92 -2 +0 -1 +1 +5 0.3
203831 MLB CTXCLE 52% 223199 47915 20502 42 232307353661 121286 229 298 88 -3 +0 -1 +1 +5 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 23272076 500981052 21350219 5718 241317373690 132292 229 311 94 -9 +4 -2 +8 +50 5.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 14027315 591405 165 241317376693 134292 229 311 94 -3 +1 -0 +2 +14 1.5
Career— MLE — 50414495 107220630107 467105540 18845 238316369685 131287 219 307 94 -20 +10 -4 +16 +97 10.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 13927414 601365 246 240316372689 133288 219 307 94 -3 +1 -1 +2 +14 1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHill City Howlers · 190 PAwOBA .375 → .330 (−45)K% 14.2% → 19.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.21%÷1.000×1.360——19.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.26%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03010.85%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0300.00%
Singles /BIP22.90%÷1.000×0.920×1.050×1.03022.79%
Doubles /BIP7.63%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×1.0306.85%
Triples /BIP0.76%÷1.000×0.910×1.050×1.0300.75%
Home runs /BIP3.82%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0303.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .375 → .330; ISO .171 → .149; BABIP .320 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Guardians · 198 PAwOBA .356 → .274 (−82)K% 11.1% → 15.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.11%÷1.041×1.440——15.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.65%÷1.018×0.620—×1.0088.98%
HBP% /PA0.51%—×0.720—×1.0080.37%
Singles /BIP23.24%÷0.985×0.820×1.019×1.00819.86%
Doubles /BIP7.75%÷0.982×0.720×1.019×1.0085.83%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.075×0.720×1.019×1.0080.48%
Home runs /BIP1.41%÷1.388×0.780—×1.0080.80%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 97, 2B 96, 3B 115, K 108, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .356 → .274; ISO .116 → .084; BABIP .312 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL CLE Mendoza · 180 PAwOBA .324 → .220 (−104)K% 8.3% → 10.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA8.33%÷0.987×1.220——10.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.89%÷0.986×0.700—×1.0089.93%
HBP% /PA2.22%—×0.700—×1.0081.57%
Singles /BIP19.26%÷0.995×0.680×0.988×1.00813.10%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷1.091×0.600×0.988×1.0082.84%
Triples /BIP2.96%÷1.045×0.600×0.988×1.0081.69%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .324 → .220; ISO .100 → .058; BABIP .272 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).