Robert Arias — OGILVIE

Robert AriasOF Hill City Howlers

Age 19 L/L 6'1" / 168 lbs A K +5%HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.8 · 2033

wRC+†115

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .313 / .373

PA185

HR4

SB12

K%21

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

25↗57

PWR

30↗42

SPD

60↗62

FLD

40↗52

EYE

51↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.9peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.4	$32M	+$31M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.7	$35M	+$34M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.8	$37M	+$36M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+3.8	$39M	+$31M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+3.7	$39M	+$26M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+3.5	$38M	+$20M
Totals		$40M		$219M	+$179M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	180	159	29	4	3	0	16	22	4	29	4	.182	.274	.245	.519	.063	.210	12	9	.234	37	-13	+4	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2025	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	198	176	41	9	1	1	17	30	1	29	4	.233	.304	.312	.617	.080	.268	15	9	.273	67	-7	+4	+0	-1	+6	0.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	19	A	Hill City Howlers	68	63	20	2	0	3	5	14	0	8	1	.317	.368	.492	.860	.175	.370	21	7	.363	136	+3	+1	+0	-0	+2	0.6
ROS	19	MLB	CLE	117	105	27	5	1	3	10	25	1	4	1	.257	.328	.410	.737	.152	.302	21	9	.319	103	+0	+0	-0	-1	+3	0.3
TOT	19	MLB	CLE	185	168	47	7	1	6	15	39	1	12	2	.280	.342	.440	.783	.161	.331	21	8	.335	115	+3	+2	-0	-1	+5	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 7%	CLE	274	243	64	11	2	7	26	52	3	10	2	.263	.342	.412	.753	.148	.306	19	9	.335	114	+4	+1	-0	-2	+8	1.2
2028	21	MLB 18%	CLE	389	344	91	16	2	11	38	72	4	13	2	.265	.345	.419	.763	.154	.305	19	10	.342	120	+9	+2	-1	-2	+11	1.9
2029	22	MLB 27%	CLE	470	415	112	20	3	14	47	85	5	15	3	.270	.351	.434	.785	.164	.305	18	10	.347	124	+13	+2	-1	-3	+13	2.5
2030	23	MLB 38%	CLE	523	458	124	22	3	16	54	93	6	16	3	.271	.355	.437	.792	.166	.305	18	10	.352	128	+16	+2	-1	-3	+15	3.0
2031	24	MLB 46%	CLE	557	487	132	23	3	18	59	97	6	16	3	.271	.357	.441	.798	.170	.305	17	11	.357	131	+20	+2	-1	-3	+16	3.4
2032	25	MLB 53%	CLE	577	502	138	24	3	19	63	100	7	16	2	.275	.364	.448	.812	.173	.306	17	11	.360	133	+22	+2	-1	-3	+16	3.7
2033	26	MLB 61%	CLE	587	510	141	25	3	20	65	102	7	16	2	.276	.366	.455	.821	.178	.306	17	11	.361	135	+23	+2	-1	-4	+17	3.8
2034	27	MLB 69%	CLE	588	510	141	25	3	20	66	102	7	15	2	.276	.367	.455	.822	.178	.307	17	11	.362	135	+23	+2	-1	-4	+17	3.8
2035	28	MLB 70%	CLE	584	506	138	24	3	19	66	103	7	15	2	.273	.364	.445	.809	.172	.307	18	11	.361	134	+23	+2	-2	-4	+17	3.7
2036	29	MLB 72%	CLE	575	499	136	24	3	19	65	103	6	14	1	.273	.363	.447	.810	.174	.306	18	11	.359	133	+21	+2	-2	-3	+16	3.5
2037	30	MLB 73%	CLE	565	490	132	23	3	18	64	103	6	13	1	.269	.361	.439	.799	.169	.305	18	11	.356	130	+19	+2	-3	-3	+16	3.2
2038	31	MLB 74%	CLE	551	478	128	22	3	17	62	103	6	12	0	.268	.359	.433	.792	.165	.304	19	11	.352	128	+17	+2	-4	-3	+16	2.9
2039	32	MLB 75%	CLE	533	462	122	21	3	16	60	102	6	11	0	.264	.356	.426	.782	.162	.303	19	11	.348	124	+15	+2	-4	-3	+15	2.5
2040	33	MLB 76%	CLE	503	437	113	19	2	15	56	100	5	10	0	.259	.349	.414	.764	.156	.303	20	11	.342	120	+11	+2	-5	-3	+14	2.0
2041	34	MLB 76%	CLE	457	398	102	17	2	13	51	95	5	10	0	.256	.348	.407	.755	.151	.302	21	11	.336	115	+8	+2	-6	-3	+13	1.5
2042	35	MLB 77%	CLE	401	350	87	14	2	10	44	87	4	9	0	.249	.339	.386	.725	.137	.300	22	11	.328	110	+4	+2	-6	-2	+11	0.9
2043	36	MLB 77%	CLE	341	298	73	12	2	8	37	78	3	8	0	.245	.334	.379	.714	.134	.298	23	11	.320	103	+1	+2	-7	-2	+10	0.4
2044	37	MLB 88%	CLE	277	242	57	9	1	6	30	66	3	6	0	.236	.327	.355	.683	.120	.296	24	11	.310	96	-1	+1	-7	-2	+8	-0.1
2045	38	MLB	CLE	208	182	41	6	1	4	22	51	2	5	0	.225	.316	.335	.651	.110	.292	25	11	.300	88	-3	+1	-8	-1	+6	-0.5
2046	39	MLB	CLE	135	119	27	4	1	2	14	34	1	3	0	.227	.313	.328	.641	.101	.287	25	10	.289	79	-3	+1	-9	-1	+4	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9590	8370	2196	379	53	276	1032	1805	105	295	32	.262	.351	.419	.770	.157	.303	19	11	.343	121	+222	+46	-68	-58	+272	42.3
/ 162G	—			650	567	150	26	4	19	70	122	7	20	2	.265	.352	.425	.778	.160	.305	19	11	.343	121	+15	+3	-5	-4	+18	2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	180	150	37	7	4	0	25	15	4	29	4	.247	.369	.347	.715	.100	.272	8	14	.330	111	+2	+4	—	—	+5	1.2
2025	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	198	164	47	11	1	2	29	22	1	29	4	.287	.397	.402	.799	.116	.312	11	15	.357	132	+7	+4	—	—	+6	1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Arias (OGILVIE)	19	25→57	30→42	60→62	55	.240/.313/.373	.133	.289	4	5	21%	9%	95	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Jason Heyward 2009 · A	19	51→60	44→55	52→50	44	.250/.294/.374	.124	.300	11	9	20%	6%	85	+0.7	.261/.334/.425	.164	.305	17	10	19%	9%	117	+2.9	.255/.348/.438	.183	.301	21	14	22%	12%	121	+3.1
●Alex Verdugo 2015 · A	19	52→58	40→50	56→45	48	.249/.301/.351	.102	.285	6	11	15%	6%	83	+0.6	.253/.290/.359	.106	.289	9	7	16%	5%	80	+0.4	.289/.349/.442	.153	.326	15	7	16%	8%	121	+2.1
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→52	43→50	52→55	54	.219/.321/.336	.117	.295	9	17	27%	11%	89	+1.0	.230/.314/.374	.144	.298	13	20	25%	10%	95	+1.4	.229/.316/.381	.152	.296	15	21	26%	10%	95	+0.9
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	.231/.283/.361	.130	.288	14	9	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.250/.299/.420	.170	.314	19	7	26%	6%	101	+1.8	.291/.353/.484	.193	.337	22	4	20%	8%	135	+4.6
●Julio Rodríguez 2019 · A	18	47→56	43→60	59→55	46	.228/.289/.349	.121	.291	8	9	24%	7%	77	+0.1	.249/.303/.399	.150	.321	15	8	26%	6%	97	+1.5	.288/.348/.497	.209	.353	27	29	25%	7%	136	+3.8
●Jurickson Profar 2012 · A	19	47→56	46→55	52→50	49	.229/.293/.374	.145	.263	10	13	18%	7%	86	+0.8	.234/.297/.369	.135	.275	12	12	19%	7%	86	+0.8	.257/.353/.419	.161	.284	18	7	16%	11%	121	+2.9
●Aaron Hicks 2009 · A	19	48→56	42→60	54→55	47	.230/.289/.338	.108	.295	8	12	24%	8%	75	-0.0	.221/.296/.327	.106	.300	7	12	26%	10%	76	+0.0	.247/.358/.450	.204	.280	25	11	21%	14%	127	+2.4
●Joc Pederson 2012 · A	20	48→52	44→65	53→55	45	.235/.293/.354	.119	.299	12	15	25%	7%	81	+0.4	.242/.308/.399	.157	.308	19	20	26%	8%	99	+1.7	.257/.362/.473	.216	.296	28	5	22%	12%	134	+3.0
●Jesse Winker 2014 · A	20	49→59	45→55	49→45	50	.238/.307/.362	.124	.291	12	5	22%	8%	89	+0.9	.246/.318/.376	.130	.305	13	5	22%	9%	97	+1.5	.272/.369/.498	.227	.291	28	1	17%	11%	143	+2.8
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→59	41→50	50	56	.236/.325/.340	.104	.299	8	10	22%	12%	91	+1.1	.251/.334/.388	.137	.334	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.247/.330/.386	.139	.319	14	15	25%	10%	103	+1.9
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	47→56	41→45	56→70	47	.226/.290/.328	.102	.300	7	17	26%	8%	72	-0.2	.218/.270/.316	.098	.284	7	16	24%	6%	60	-1.0	.260/.332/.371	.111	.354	9	50	27%	9%	98	+1.0
●Luis Robert Jr. 2018 · A	20	48→58	43→60	52→60	46	.224/.316/.343	.119	.317	10	15	30%	9%	89	+1.0	.228/.285/.372	.144	.324	14	22	33%	5%	83	+0.6	.284/.330/.497	.213	.339	28	17	24%	5%	131	+2.8
●Bo Bichette 2017 · A	19	50→60	46→60	53→55	40	.243/.287/.379	.136	.324	13	8	28%	6%	85	+0.7	.267/.312/.417	.150	.332	13	17	23%	6%	105	+2.1	.305/.346/.482	.177	.358	22	13	20%	5%	135	+4.6
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	42	.223/.277/.357	.134	.288	13	15	27%	6%	75	-0.0	.225/.291/.388	.163	.272	19	14	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
●David Dahl 2013 · A	19	52→58	46→60	51→55	41	.256/.291/.397	.142	.309	11	9	21%	4%	91	+1.1	.237/.267/.364	.127	.301	10	13	24%	4%	72	-0.2	.269/.321/.459	.189	.347	21	12	27%	7%	115	+2.2
●Brandon Marsh 2018 · A	20	49→59	42→50	54→50	37	.235/.276/.347	.112	.314	8	11	27%	4%	72	-0.2	.221/.280/.325	.104	.331	8	12	33%	7%	68	-0.5	.262/.344/.424	.163	.366	16	16	30%	11%	115	+2.2
●Jaff Decker 2009 · A	19	53→50	43→55	52→55	58	.247/.348/.365	.118	.328	10	10	25%	13%	108	+2.3	.234/.328/.397	.163	.309	18	8	28%	11%	108	+2.3	.214/.308/.388	.174	.280	21	8	30%	11%	96	+1.2
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	50→60	39→50	48→55	48	.235/.303/.327	.092	.279	6	11	18%	6%	78	+0.2	.235/.290/.342	.107	.303	7	22	24%	5%	77	+0.1	.262/.326/.420	.159	.312	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.1
●CJ Abrams 2021 · A	20	50→53	42→55	54→60	45	.242/.287/.364	.122	.283	8	14	18%	5%	80	+0.4	.247/.293/.363	.116	.305	9	25	21%	5%	83	+0.6	.248/.310/.428	.179	.287	18	35	20%	6%	104	+2.1
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	45→51	41→55	52→55	48	.216/.292/.327	.111	.287	7	10	26%	9%	74	-0.1	.201/.275/.318	.117	.293	8	13	31%	9%	64	-0.8	.232/.314/.375	.143	.300	15	24	26%	11%	91	+0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)