Victor Arias — OGILVIE

Victor AriasCF Vancouver Canadians

Age 22 L/L 5'9" / 150 lbs A+ HR +12%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2030

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .280 / .331

PA320

HR6

SB8

K%30

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

32↗42

PWR

41↗53

SPD

58↗62

FLD

40↗47

EYE

47↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.2	$12M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.0	$10M	+$6M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.7	$4M	-$0.3M
Totals		$13M		$69M	+$56M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	134	120	20	3	0	1	13	47	1	5	3	.167	.254	.217	.470	.050	.264	35	10	.227	32	-10	-0	+0	+0	+4	-0.6
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	67	59	12	2	2	0	6	28	2	5	2	.203	.299	.305	.604	.102	.387	42	9	.271	66	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	.164	.291	.281	.573	.117	.257	37	12	.255	53	-8	+3	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2024	20	A	2 teams	372	325	80	18	2	7	31	105	14	18	10	.246	.338	.378	.716	.132	.340	28	8	.317	100	+0	-0	+0	+1	+11	1.2
2025	21	A+	2 teams	468	431	95	16	6	6	31	144	3	18	5	.220	.277	.327	.605	.107	.313	31	7	.266	62	-20	+2	+0	+2	+13	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	TOR	320	289	62	11	3	6	24	95	4	8	3	.215	.284	.336	.620	.121	.292	30	8	.278	71	-11	+0	-1	+1	+9	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 11%	TOR	513	462	102	18	4	12	40	147	6	13	5	.221	.291	.355	.646	.134	.294	29	8	.291	81	-11	+1	-2	+2	+15	0.4
2028	24	MLB 26%	TOR	550	494	112	20	4	15	45	154	6	14	5	.227	.299	.374	.674	.148	.295	28	8	.301	89	-7	+1	-2	+2	+16	0.9
2029	25	MLB 44%	TOR	571	511	118	21	4	17	48	157	7	15	5	.231	.306	.387	.693	.157	.296	27	8	.308	94	-4	+1	-2	+2	+16	1.3
2030	26	MLB 59%	TOR	581	519	121	21	4	18	50	159	7	15	5	.233	.309	.393	.702	.160	.297	27	9	.312	97	-2	+1	-2	+2	+16	1.6
2031	27	MLB 76%	TOR	583	520	121	21	4	18	51	160	7	15	5	.233	.310	.392	.702	.160	.297	27	9	.312	97	-2	+1	-2	+2	+17	1.6
2032	28	MLB 84%	TOR	580	517	119	21	4	17	51	160	7	14	4	.230	.308	.385	.693	.155	.297	28	9	.311	96	-3	+1	-3	+2	+16	1.5
2033	29	MLB 90%	TOR	571	510	116	20	4	17	50	159	6	13	4	.227	.304	.382	.686	.155	.296	28	9	.309	95	-4	+1	-4	+2	+16	1.2
2034	30	MLB	TOR	561	500	114	20	4	16	50	159	6	12	4	.228	.306	.380	.686	.152	.295	28	9	.306	92	-5	+1	-4	+2	+16	1.0
2035	31	MLB	TOR	547	488	109	19	4	15	48	157	6	11	3	.223	.301	.371	.672	.148	.293	29	9	.302	89	-7	+1	-5	+2	+15	0.7
2036	32	MLB	TOR	529	471	104	18	4	14	47	155	6	9	2	.221	.300	.365	.665	.144	.292	29	9	.297	86	-9	+1	-5	+2	+15	0.4
2037	33	MLB	TOR	499	447	97	17	3	13	44	149	5	8	2	.217	.294	.356	.650	.139	.290	30	9	.292	81	-10	+1	-6	+2	+14	0.0
2038	34	MLB	TOR	453	406	85	14	3	11	39	139	5	7	1	.209	.287	.340	.627	.131	.288	31	9	.285	76	-12	+1	-7	+2	+13	-0.3
2039	35	MLB	TOR	397	356	73	12	3	9	34	126	4	7	1	.205	.282	.331	.613	.126	.286	32	9	.278	71	-13	+1	-7	+1	+11	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8448	7553	1681	296	63	215	721	2456	106	222	70	.223	.299	.364	.663	.141	.298	29	9	.297	85	-139	+16	-53	+30	+239	9.6
/ 162G	—			650	581	130	23	5	17	55	189	8	17	5	.224	.299	.368	.668	.145	.299	29	8	.297	85	-11	+1	-4	+2	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	134	109	27	4	0	2	24	32	1	5	3	.248	.388	.339	.728	.092	.333	24	18	.342	120	+3	-0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	67	54	17	3	3	0	11	20	2	5	2	.315	.448	.481	.929	.167	.500	30	16	.415	176	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	152	117	26	6	1	4	30	39	4	15	1	.222	.397	.393	.791	.171	.293	26	20	.362	136	+6	+3	—	—	+4	1.3
2024	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	40	34	11	1	0	0	6	5	0	1	3	.324	.425	.353	.778	.029	.379	12	15	.363	136	+2	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	332	280	78	19	3	8	36	72	14	17	7	.279	.388	.454	.841	.175	.347	22	11	.376	146	+17	+1	—	—	+9	2.8
2025	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	150	133	30	4	2	2	14	38	0	6	1	.226	.299	.331	.630	.105	.292	25	9	.281	74	-4	+1	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	318	279	82	15	5	5	36	64	3	12	4	.294	.381	.437	.818	.143	.367	20	11	.367	139	+14	+1	—	—	+9	2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Arias (OGILVIE)	22	32→42	41→53	58→62	45	.212/.280/.331	.119	.292	6	8	30%	8%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Akil Baddoo 2021 · A	22	41→51	43→55	55	44	.198/.268/.314	.116	.295	9	14	34%	8%	60	-1.0	.234/.308/.374	.140	.313	14	21	27%	10%	92	+1.2	.232/.314/.375	.143	.300	15	24	26%	11%	91	+0.8
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→43	48→50	57→55	45	.200/.272/.345	.145	.264	16	19	30%	8%	71	-0.3	.213/.284/.353	.140	.278	16	18	28%	8%	78	+0.2	.213/.283/.350	.137	.276	16	17	28%	8%	73	-0.1
●Bo Naylor 2022 · AA	22	34→43	46→55	53→50	39	.181/.240/.306	.126	.262	14	10	36%	7%	46	-2.0	.213/.300/.385	.172	.281	20	13	30%	10%	93	+1.3	.216/.308/.399	.183	.269	22	12	28%	11%	97	+1.2
✕Garrett Mitchell 2022 · AA	23	47	45→50	56→60	48	.223/.306/.345	.122	.333	14	20	34%	10%	85	+0.7	.239/.311/.374	.135	.355	13	26	33%	9%	94	+1.3	.249/.323/.406	.156	.360	16	32	33%	9%	102	+0.8
✕Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	45→47	43→45	57→60	53	.214/.313/.328	.115	.295	9	20	28%	11%	84	+0.6	.215/.314/.338	.123	.272	13	32	24%	11%	87	+0.8	.209/.308/.338	.130	.260	14	40	24%	11%	81	+0.5
✕Jason Pridie 2006 · AA	22	43→53	47→50	54→55	38	.214/.264/.350	.136	.308	14	15	34%	6%	68	-0.5	.227/.261/.338	.111	.291	10	17	25%	4%	63	-0.9	.238/.286/.378	.140	.295	16	19	25%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	41→50	39→45	57→55	45	.197/.265/.287	.090	.262	6	17	26%	7%	52	-1.6	.220/.297/.304	.084	.293	6	16	25%	9%	70	-0.3	.229/.318/.327	.099	.300	9	17	24%	11%	81	+0.3
●Zach Borenstein 2012 · A	22	45→54	40→60	57→50	46	.214/.289/.317	.103	.280	6	14	24%	7%	70	-0.3	.237/.291/.410	.173	.297	19	10	26%	6%	95	+1.4	.250/.301/.438	.188	.317	23	6	28%	6%	105	+1.6
●James Outman 2019 · A	22	40→49	47→60	53→50	39	.203/.260/.335	.132	.285	15	11	34%	6%	63	-0.9	.196/.265/.334	.138	.273	16	13	33%	7%	65	-0.7	.223/.317/.418	.195	.310	25	14	34%	10%	107	+2.0
●Cedric Mullins 2017 · A	22	42→52	47→55	55→60	39	.215/.247/.354	.139	.261	14	16	24%	4%	61	-1.0	.224/.266/.362	.138	.266	14	16	21%	5%	72	-0.2	.254/.323/.426	.171	.293	19	27	19%	8%	108	+2.3
✕Grégor Blanco 2006 · AA	22	48→58	42→45	57→60	46	.223/.297/.335	.112	.332	8	22	33%	9%	77	+0.1	.251/.327/.329	.078	.335	3	21	23%	10%	88	+0.9	.264/.341/.367	.103	.318	6	19	17%	10%	96	+1.1
●Trent Grisham 2019 · AA	22	40→48	40→60	52→55	49	.192/.279/.284	.092	.285	8	16	33%	10%	58	-1.2	.228/.312/.397	.169	.286	19	14	26%	10%	101	+1.8	.238/.325/.431	.194	.282	22	14	23%	10%	110	+1.9
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	39→49	44→45	54→60	49	.200/.275/.314	.114	.247	13	19	24%	8%	64	-0.8	.233/.293/.330	.097	.310	8	25	26%	7%	74	-0.1	.263/.320/.391	.127	.327	12	31	22%	7%	97	+1.4
✕Jake Marisnick 2013 · AA	22	47→54	44→60	56→55	42	.230/.287/.354	.124	.291	10	19	24%	5%	79	+0.3	.231/.279/.353	.122	.296	12	22	25%	4%	75	-0.0	.232/.296/.435	.203	.309	26	18	33%	6%	101	+0.9
●Derek Fisher 2016 · A	22	43→51	49→55	54→55	43	.218/.283/.364	.146	.302	18	18	33%	8%	80	+0.4	.227/.297/.381	.154	.320	18	19	33%	9%	90	+1.0	.226/.302/.402	.176	.310	23	18	33%	9%	95	+1.0
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA	22	49→51	44→50	52→55	46	.237/.296/.355	.118	.303	12	14	25%	8%	82	+0.5	.240/.297/.372	.132	.298	14	23	23%	7%	87	+0.8	.232/.286/.357	.124	.293	12	26	24%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Mario Lisson 2006 · A	22	46→49	43→55	57→55	50	.222/.307/.345	.122	.296	10	18	26%	10%	85	+0.7	.222/.287/.338	.116	.289	11	21	26%	7%	75	-0.0	.233/.305/.376	.142	.304	18	8	28%	8%	91	+0.8
✕Wenceel Pérez 2023 · AA	23	47→49	46→50	57→55	46	.234/.288/.375	.142	.285	12	16	23%	7%	84	+0.6	.233/.295/.371	.138	.286	13	17	22%	8%	86	+0.8	.229/.296/.370	.141	.279	14	17	22%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→50	47→55	58→55	39	.214/.256/.353	.139	.265	14	15	25%	4%	65	-0.7	.239/.275/.401	.162	.303	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	.244/.283/.399	.155	.300	17	24	24%	4%	86	+0.7
●Alex Castellanos 2009 · A	22	44→50	46→55	57→50	35	.216/.265/.348	.132	.303	12	17	32%	4%	68	-0.5	.217/.269/.350	.133	.310	11	15	32%	4%	70	-0.3	.231/.292/.408	.176	.307	18	15	29%	6%	93	+1.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)