Victor Arias — OGILVIE

Victor AriasCF New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 22 L/L 5'9" / 150 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION375 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP280

ISO115

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	109	27	4	0	2	24	32	1	5	3	248	388	339	728	92	333	24	18	342	117	+3	-0	—	—	+3	0.6
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	54	17	3	3	0	11	20	2	5	2	315	448	481	929	167	500	30	16	415	167	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	117	26	6	1	4	30	39	4	15	1	222	397	393	791	171	293	26	20	362	131	+6	+3	—	—	+3	1.2
2024	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	40	34	11	1	0	0	6	5	0	1	3	324	425	353	778	29	379	12	15	363	132	+2	-1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	332	280	78	19	3	8	36	72	14	17	7	279	388	454	841	175	347	22	11	376	140	+16	+1	—	—	+7	2.4
2025	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	150	133	30	4	2	2	14	38	0	6	1	226	299	331	630	105	292	25	9	281	77	-4	+1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2025	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	318	279	82	15	5	5	36	64	3	12	4	294	381	437	818	143	367	20	11	367	134	+13	+1	—	—	+7	2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	119	21	3	0	1	14	47	1	5	3	176	269	227	496	50	273	35	10	232	43	-9	-0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	58	12	2	2	0	7	29	2	5	2	207	313	310	624	103	392	43	10	271	70	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	241	37	12	254	58	-8	+3	—	—	+3	-0.2
2024	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	40	36	10	1	0	0	4	7	0	1	3	278	350	306	656	28	336	18	10	287	80	-1	-1	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	332	289	70	17	2	7	27	98	14	17	7	242	336	388	724	145	335	30	8	318	101	+1	+1	—	—	+7	0.8
2025	21	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	150	137	27	3	2	2	10	48	0	6	1	197	252	292	544	95	276	32	7	241	49	-9	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	318	294	66	12	4	4	21	93	3	12	4	224	283	333	616	109	319	29	7	277	74	-10	+1	—	—	+7	-0.2
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	119	21	3	0	1	14	47	1	5	3	176	269	227	496	50	282	35	10	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	109	27	4	0	2	24	32	1	5	3	248	388	339	728	92	333	24	18	342	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	58	12	2	2	0	7	29	2	5	2	207	313	310	624	103	414	43	10	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	54	17	3	3	0	11	20	2	5	2	315	448	481	929	167	500	30	16	415	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	257	37	12	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	117	26	6	1	4	30	39	4	15	1	222	397	393	791	171	293	26	20	362	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	372	325	80	18	2	7	31	105	14	18	10	246	338	378	716	132	340	28	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	372	314	89	20	3	8	42	77	14	18	10	283	392	443	835	159	351	21	11	374	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	468	431	95	16	6	6	31	141	3	18	5	220	277	327	605	107	310	30	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	468	412	112	19	7	7	50	102	3	18	5	272	355	403	758	131	343	22	11	339	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	118	21	3	0	1	14	47	1	5	3	178	269	229	497	51	273	35	10	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	58	12	2	2	0	7	29	2	5	2	207	313	310	624	103	392	43	10	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	241	37	12	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	372	324	80	18	2	7	31	105	14	18	10	247	338	380	717	133	335	28	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	468	431	95	16	6	6	31	141	3	18	5	220	277	327	605	107	305	30	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	241	37	12	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	372	324	80	18	2	7	31	105	14	18	10	247	338	380	717	133	335	28	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	468	431	95	16	6	6	31	141	3	18	5	220	277	327	605	107	305	30	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	TOR	—	375	354	68	13	3	7	18	110	2	11	10	192	235	305	540	113	257	29	5	235	45	-24	-2	+0	+1	+8	-1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	TOR	—	24	19	2	1	0	0	5	6	0	2	1	105	292	158	450	53	154	25	21	237	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	TOR	—	351	327	74	14	3	10	21	83	2	9	9	226	277	379	656	153	274	24	6	291	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	AA MLE	TOR	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		279	33	11	261	63	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	AA MLE	TOR	—	384	362	69	13	3	7	19	113	2	11	10	191	235	301	536	110	256	29	5	236	46	-25	-2	-0	+1	+8	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	35%	505	465	102	19	4	12	31	137	4	11	8	219	274	355	629	135	280	27	6	279	75	-15	-1	-2	+2	+11	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	47%	546	502	113	21	4	15	35	144	4	12	8	225	281	373	653	147	282	26	6	290	82	-12	-1	-2	+2	+12	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	584	535	122	22	5	17	39	152	5	13	9	228	287	383	670	155	283	26	7	296	87	-9	-1	-2	+2	+13	0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	595	545	126	23	5	18	40	154	5	13	9	231	290	391	681	160	283	26	7	300	89	-8	-1	-2	+2	+13	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	597	546	126	23	5	18	41	155	5	13	9	231	291	390	681	159	283	26	7	300	89	-8	-1	-2	+2	+13	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	594	543	123	22	4	18	41	155	5	13	8	227	287	381	668	155	283	26	7	299	89	-8	-1	-3	+2	+13	0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	585	534	122	22	4	18	41	154	5	12	8	228	290	386	675	157	282	26	7	297	87	-9	-1	-4	+2	+13	0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	575	525	118	21	4	17	40	153	5	10	7	225	286	377	663	152	281	27	7	295	86	-10	-1	-4	+2	+12	-0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	561	513	114	20	4	16	39	151	4	9	6	222	282	370	653	148	279	27	7	291	83	-11	-1	-5	+2	+12	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	35%	178	164	37	7	2	4	11	48	1	4	3	226	278	366	644	140	282	27	6	274	75	-5	-0	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	47%	254	234	53	10	2	7	16	67	2	6	4	226	282	376	658	150	284	26	6	285	82	-5	-0	-1	+1	+6	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	303	278	64	12	2	9	20	79	2	7	5	230	287	385	672	155	285	26	7	292	87	-5	-1	-1	+1	+7	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	323	295	69	12	3	10	22	84	3	7	5	234	294	397	690	163	285	26	7	295	89	-4	-1	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	324	296	69	12	3	10	22	84	3	7	5	233	293	395	688	162	285	26	7	295	89	-4	-1	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	322	294	67	12	2	10	22	84	3	7	5	228	288	384	673	156	285	26	7	294	89	-4	-1	-2	+1	+7	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	311	283	65	12	2	9	22	82	3	6	4	230	292	382	674	152	284	26	7	293	87	-5	-0	-2	+1	+7	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	301	275	62	11	2	9	21	80	2	5	4	225	285	378	663	153	283	27	7	290	86	-5	-1	-2	+1	+7	-0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	292	268	60	11	2	8	20	78	2	5	3	224	283	369	652	146	281	27	7	286	83	-6	-0	-3	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2608	2387	546	99	20	76	176	686	21	54	38	229	288	382	670	154	287	26	7	290	83	-44	-4	-13	+9	+57	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	136	25	5	19	44	171	5	13	9	229	287	383	670	155	286	26	7	290	83	-11	-1	-3	+2	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6344	5777	1296	236	50	166	450	1736	66	167	93	224	288	369	657	144	289	27	7	291	83	-89	-8	-26	+18	+112	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	132	24	5	17	46	178	7	17	10	223	287	367	653	144	287	27	7	291	83	-11	-1	-3	+2	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	5.4	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
/162	664	24	1	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.9	2,614	77	54	228	283	382	+9	-4	3.4	3.3
/162	664	19	14	+2.4	-1.0	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Jose Castillolast yr '08 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	39	13	254	296	379	+7	-14	1.9	1.9
/162	664	13	4	+2.4	-4.5	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Arias (OGILVIE)	22	30→43	40→53	60→61	45	208/259/321	113	279	6	8	28%	6%	63	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	40→47	48→55	52→55	43	209/268/351	142	267	16	12	28%	7%	74	-0.6	223/290/379	156	286	16	20	27%	8%	88	+0.4	222/295/383	161	284	16	22	27%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	39→45	58→55	46	205/275/296	91	274	6	17	26%	8%	63	-1.3	223/300/306	83	296	5	16	24%	9%	75	-0.5	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Jason Pridie 2006 · AA	22	43→53	46→50	55	39	212/261/343	131	299	13	16	33%	6%	69	-0.9	230/263/335	105	294	8	17	24%	4%	67	-1.1	235/283/370	135	294	15	19	25%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA	22	49→51	44→50	52→55	47	239/299/356	117	304	11	14	25%	8%	86	+0.3	236/293/360	124	294	12	23	23%	7%	84	+0.2	230/283/348	118	290	11	26	24%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Bo Naylor 2022 · AA	22	33→43	45→55	54→50	39	176/236/295	119	259	13	11	36%	7%	49	-2.4	212/299/376	164	277	19	13	29%	10%	91	+0.7	213/305/387	174	267	21	12	27%	11%	94	+0.7
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	47→50	58→55	46	200/276/339	139	268	15	19	30%	9%	74	-0.5	213/284/345	132	280	14	17	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Taylor Trammell 2021 · AA	23	42→46	40→55	51→55	46	203/278/290	87	288	8	17	30%	9%	63	-1.3	213/292/373	160	289	19	15	31%	9%	88	+0.4	203/297/373	170	273	21	23	32%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Kevin Kramer 2016 · A	22	46→54	40→45	54→50	44	220/276/315	95	281	6	12	24%	6%	68	-1.0	244/300/352	108	310	7	8	22%	6%	85	+0.2	251/305/365	114	325	8	8	24%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Sam Hilliard 2016 · A	22	46→47	44→55	54→55	45	221/283/350	129	308	10	11	30%	8%	78	-0.3	210/262/317	107	334	10	18	38%	6%	63	-1.4	203/279/378	175	281	20	18	34%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Francisco Santana 2010 · A	22	43	42→50	57→55	43	212/261/324	112	266	9	13	24%	6%	63	-1.3	196/233/289	93	282	6	8	31%	4%	45	-2.7	161/180/254	93	230	6	6	32%	2%	13	-1.6
✕Kyle Isbel 2019 · A	22	48→52	43→50	53→55	41	231/279/347	116	311	10	19	28%	6%	76	-0.4	217/268/342	125	286	13	17	28%	6%	72	-0.7	229/287/366	137	285	12	19	24%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	65	-1.2	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	56	-1.9	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	22	-1.2
✕Spencer Jones 2023 · A	22	50→48	46→55	56→55	44	241/305/370	129	323	13	19	28%	7%	91	+0.7	218/272/362	144	354	15	25	40%	6%	78	-0.3	216/285/389	174	351	21	24	42%	8%	86	+0.3
✕Alan Espinoza 2013 · AAA	22	44	43→50	52→45	41	215/271/329	114	302	10	11	31%	7%	69	-0.9	228/280/343	115	281	12	8	23%	6%	76	-0.4	247/287/387	140	284	16	3	19%	4%	87	+0.2
✕Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→45	58→60	54	211/315/327	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	86	+0.3	215/313/338	123	273	13	33	24%	11%	88	+0.5	211/310/338	127	264	13	40	24%	11%	84	+0.2
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	194/277/307	113	282	11	9	33%	9%	68	-1.0	224/272/334	110	313	11	8	30%	6%	70	-0.8	234/286/330	96	304	9	3	25%	6%	72	-0.3
●Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	46→56	43→50	53→50	48	223/289/343	120	286	8	14	24%	8%	79	-0.2	225/291/339	114	281	9	12	22%	8%	79	-0.2	231/301/363	132	280	11	10	21%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Nick Franklin 2013 · AAA	22	47→49	45→50	53→50	43	232/281/361	129	297	12	13	26%	6%	80	-0.2	229/295/359	130	293	13	12	25%	8%	85	+0.2	220/292/351	131	278	15	11	25%	9%	81	-0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2018 · AA	22	47→49	47→50	50	43	234/291/373	139	314	14	10	30%	7%	86	+0.3	231/292/368	137	313	14	12	29%	7%	86	+0.3	226/290/362	136	303	14	12	29%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Dustin Fowler 2017 · AA	22	49→52	43→50	55	38	239/264/360	120	291	9	17	21%	3%	72	-0.7	235/265/370	135	294	12	18	24%	4%	76	-0.4	224/264/359	136	297	16	14	30%	4%	70	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps