Victor Arias — OGILVIE

Victor AriasCF New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 22 L/L 5'9" / 150 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION223 act + 148 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .264 / .334

PA148

HR3

K%29

BB%6

BABIP281

ISO123

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$8M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$17M		$35M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	120	20	3	0	1	13	47	1	5	3	167	254	217	470	50	264	35	10	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	109	27	4	0	2	24	32	1	5	3	248	388	339	728	92	333	24	18	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	59	12	2	2	0	6	28	2	5	2	203	299	305	604	102	387	42	9	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	54	17	3	3	0	11	20	2	5	2	315	448	481	929	167	500	30	16	415	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	55	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	254	36	12	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	117	26	6	1	4	30	39	4	15	1	222	397	393	791	171	293	26	20	362	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	372	323	82	18	2	7	33	102	14	18	10	254	349	387	736	133	347	27	9	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	372	314	89	20	3	8	42	77	14	18	10	283	392	443	835	159	351	21	11	374	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	468	432	93	17	6	7	30	151	3	18	5	215	271	331	602	116	310	32	6	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	468	412	112	19	7	7	50	102	3	18	5	272	355	403	758	131	343	22	11	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	TOR	—	223	210	44	11	2	6	12	67	1	5	6	210	256	367	622	157	277	30	5	266	62	-10	-1	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
YTD	22	AA	TOR	—	223	205	51	13	2	7	17	51	1	5	6	249	309	434	744	185	299	23	8	329	110	+2	-1	+0	+1	+6	0.8
ROS	22	AA	TOR	2%	148	137	29	6	1	3	9	43	1	3	2	211	264	334	598	123	294	29	6	281	73	-5	-0	-1	+1	+4	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						295	33	0	276	69	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	AA	TOR	—	226	213	44	11	2	6	12	68	1	5	6	207	252	362	614	155	273	30	5	266	62	-10	-1	-0	+1	+6	-0.4
TOT	22	AA	TOR	—	371	347	73	17	3	9	21	110	2	8	8	210	259	354	613	144	279	30	6	272	66	-14	-2	-1	+1	+11	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TOR	35%	526	482	109	22	4	14	35	146	4	11	7	226	284	376	660	149	294	28	7	294	83	-10	-1	-2	+2	+15	0.4
2028	24	MLB	TOR	47%	562	513	120	24	5	16	39	152	5	12	7	234	294	394	688	160	295	27	7	303	90	-6	-0	-2	+2	+16	0.9
2029	25	MLB	TOR	52%	584	532	126	25	5	18	42	155	5	12	8	237	299	404	703	167	295	27	7	308	94	-4	-1	-2	+2	+17	1.2
2030	26	MLB	TOR	54%	595	542	128	25	5	19	43	158	5	12	8	236	298	406	704	170	295	27	7	311	96	-3	-1	-2	+2	+17	1.4
2031	27	MLB	TOR	54%	597	543	128	25	5	19	44	158	5	12	8	236	299	405	704	169	295	26	7	311	96	-2	-1	-2	+2	+17	1.4
2032	28	MLB	TOR	54%	594	540	128	25	5	19	44	158	5	12	7	237	301	407	708	170	294	27	7	310	96	-3	-0	-3	+2	+17	1.3
2033	29	MLB	TOR	53%	585	531	123	24	4	18	44	157	5	11	7	232	297	394	690	162	294	27	8	309	94	-4	-1	-4	+2	+17	1.1
2034	30	MLB	TOR	52%	575	522	121	24	4	18	43	156	5	9	6	232	296	397	693	165	293	27	7	306	92	-5	-1	-4	+2	+16	0.9
2035	31	MLB	TOR	52%	561	509	117	23	4	17	42	154	5	8	5	230	295	391	686	161	291	27	7	302	89	-7	-0	-5	+2	+16	0.6
2027	23	MLB	TOR	35%	185	170	39	8	2	5	12	51	1	4	2	229	284	388	672	159	295	28	6	289	79	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.1
2028	24	MLB	TOR	47%	261	239	56	11	2	8	18	70	2	5	3	234	293	397	691	163	296	27	7	298	86	-4	-0	-1	+1	+7	0.3
2029	25	MLB	TOR	52%	303	275	66	13	3	9	22	81	3	6	4	240	303	407	711	167	296	27	7	303	90	-3	-0	-1	+1	+9	0.5
2030	26	MLB	TOR	54%	323	294	70	14	3	10	23	86	3	7	4	238	300	408	708	170	296	27	7	306	92	-3	-0	-1	+1	+9	0.6
2031	27	MLB	TOR	54%	324	294	70	14	3	10	24	86	3	7	4	238	302	408	710	170	296	27	7	306	92	-3	-0	-1	+1	+9	0.6
2032	28	MLB	TOR	54%	322	292	70	14	3	10	24	86	3	6	4	240	304	411	715	171	296	27	7	305	92	-3	-0	-2	+1	+9	0.5
2033	29	MLB	TOR	53%	311	282	66	13	2	10	23	84	3	6	4	234	299	401	699	167	295	27	7	303	90	-3	-0	-2	+1	+9	0.4
2034	30	MLB	TOR	52%	301	272	63	12	2	9	23	82	3	5	3	232	299	390	688	158	294	27	8	301	88	-4	-0	-2	+1	+9	0.3
2035	31	MLB	TOR	52%	292	266	61	12	2	9	22	80	2	4	3	229	293	391	684	162	292	27	8	297	86	-5	-0	-3	+1	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2625	2387	561	111	22	80	191	707	23	50	31	235	298	401	698	165	298	27	7	302	89	-33	-2	-13	+9	+74	3.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	138	27	5	20	47	175	6	12	8	234	297	398	694	164	295	27	7	302	89	-8	-1	-3	+2	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	6520	5913	1357	267	53	179	486	1820	69	163	86	229	296	383	679	154	298	28	7	301	88	-87	-2	-26	+23	+185	9.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	136	27	5	18	48	181	7	16	9	231	296	385	682	154	300	28	7	301	88	-9	-0	-3	+2	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	109	27	4	0	2	24	32	1	5	3	248	388	339	728	92	333	24	18	342	120	+3	-0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	54	17	3	3	0	11	20	2	5	2	315	448	481	929	167	500	30	16	415	176	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	117	26	6	1	4	30	39	4	15	1	222	397	393	791	171	293	26	20	362	136	+6	+3	—	—	+4	1.3
2024	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	40	34	11	1	0	0	6	5	0	1	3	324	425	353	778	29	379	12	15	363	136	+2	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	332	280	78	19	3	8	36	72	14	17	7	279	388	454	841	175	347	22	11	376	146	+17	+1	—	—	+9	2.8
2025	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	150	133	30	4	2	2	14	38	0	6	1	226	299	331	630	105	292	25	9	281	74	-4	+1	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	318	279	82	15	5	5	36	64	3	12	4	294	381	437	818	143	367	20	11	367	139	+14	+1	—	—	+9	2.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#1Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#2Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#3Vinny Castillalast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,579 PA	7	3,579	117	11	253	299	421	-2	+14	10.8	10.8
	/162	664	22	2	253	299	421	-0.3	+2.5	2.0	pk7: 11
#4Alex Gonzalezlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,150 PA	6	3,150	86	34	246	304	402	-0	+23	9.7	9.7
	/162	664	18	7	246	304	402	-0.0	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10
#5Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	9	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	1	244	293	414	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,629	80	50	234	294	399	+9	-4	5.7	5.4
	/162	664	20	13	234	294	399	+2.4	-1.0	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Arias (OGILVIE)	22	30→43	40→53	60→61	45	210/259/354	144	279	9	8	30%	6%	66	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
●Jason Pridie 2006 · AA	22	42→52	47→50	54→55	38	212/261/348	136	305	14	16	34%	6%	66	-0.6	230/264/341	111	295	9	17	25%	4%	64	-0.8	243/290/391	148	303	17	19	25%	6%	86	+0.7
✕Jake Marisnick 2013 · AA	22	46→52	44→60	56→55	41	224/281/349	125	285	10	19	25%	5%	75	-0.0	231/279/352	121	296	12	23	25%	4%	75	-0.0	226/290/423	196	302	25	18	33%	6%	96	+0.7
✕Spencer Jones 2023 · A	22	48	45→55	56→55	43	235/298/363	128	318	13	19	29%	7%	85	+0.7	217/270/366	149	357	16	25	41%	6%	75	-0.0	210/278/395	185	354	23	23	44%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Jason Martin 2018 · AA	22	42→49	48→60	48→50	39	213/261/358	145	293	15	13	32%	6%	68	-0.5	229/276/372	143	298	14	12	27%	6%	78	+0.2	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
●Cedric Mullins 2017 · A	22	43→53	47→55	56→60	39	220/252/364	144	270	14	16	24%	4%	66	-0.6	223/265/361	138	265	14	16	21%	5%	71	-0.3	250/319/421	170	288	19	27	19%	8%	106	+2.2
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA	22	49→51	45→50	52→55	47	239/299/361	122	305	12	14	25%	8%	85	+0.7	235/292/364	129	293	13	23	23%	7%	83	+0.6	228/280/351	122	287	13	26	24%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Gage Workman 2022 · A	22	41→49	46→60	54→55	36	194/253/333	139	333	12	18	43%	7%	59	-1.1	192/245/336	144	346	15	21	46%	6%	56	-1.3	235/291/430	195	347	22	24	37%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Kyle Isbel 2019 · A	22	47→53	43→50	53→55	41	227/275/340	113	305	10	19	28%	6%	69	-0.4	218/268/349	131	285	14	17	27%	6%	69	-0.4	242/292/371	130	288	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	45→53	44→45	53→50	48	218/288/344	126	281	9	14	25%	8%	76	+0.1	229/295/348	119	286	9	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	238/306/369	131	290	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Alan Espinoza 2013 · AAA	22	43	43→55	52→45	39	212/262/323	112	302	10	11	32%	6%	59	-1.1	233/281/358	125	286	14	8	23%	5%	77	+0.1	259/298/432	173	288	21	3	18%	4%	101	+0.9
●Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	40→44	44→55	51→50	41	201/254/327	127	274	11	7	30%	6%	57	-1.2	199/281/358	159	276	19	13	33%	10%	79	+0.3	218/311/403	185	271	23	12	27%	11%	99	+1.3
●Oneil Cruz 2021 · AA	22	47→53	45→60	50→60	37	227/271/355	128	327	12	11	34%	6%	72	-0.2	236/293/431	195	313	24	20	31%	7%	102	+1.8	242/304/444	202	319	24	22	31%	8%	105	+1.7
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	67	-0.5	235/295/331	96	314	8	26	26%	7%	76	+0.0	261/318/388	127	324	12	31	22%	7%	96	+1.3
●James Outman 2019 · A	22	39→49	47→60	53→50	39	201/258/335	134	281	16	11	34%	6%	62	-0.9	198/265/338	140	279	16	13	34%	7%	66	-0.6	232/324/438	205	324	26	14	34%	10%	114	+2.4
●Trent Grisham 2019 · AA	22	40→50	40→60	53→55	49	192/283/283	91	291	7	17	34%	11%	59	-1.1	235/319/414	179	292	21	14	26%	10%	108	+2.3	244/330/446	203	288	24	14	23%	10%	118	+2.3
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	44→48	43→45	51→50	41	215/278/328	113	300	10	11	30%	6%	68	-0.5	198/268/323	125	313	14	12	39%	7%	63	-0.8	237/319/364	126	339	12	15	31%	8%	92	+0.8
✕Shed Long Jr. 2018 · AA	22	47	47→50	49→50	42	232/288/370	138	315	14	10	30%	7%	83	+0.6	231/292/374	143	314	15	12	29%	7%	85	+0.7	226/290/370	144	302	16	12	29%	8%	81	+0.2