Victor Arias
CF New Hampshire Fisher Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+/ATOR | 372 | .283/.392/.443 | 8 | 18 | 97 | — | .248/.338/.368 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA/A+TOR | 468 | .272/.355/.403 | 7 | 18 | 78 | — | .236/.297/.353 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A/INTL2 orgs | 415 | .234/.295/.378 | 10 | 13 | 63 | — | .200/.243/.321 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBTOR | 4 | .221/.275/.337 | 0 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 24 | MLBTOR | 105 | .226/.282/.358 | 2 | 2 | 79 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBTOR | 169 | .230/.287/.372 | 4 | 4 | 84 | 0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 109 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 248 | 388 | 339 | 728 | 92 | 333 | 24 | 18 | 342 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 67 | 54 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 315 | 448 | 481 | 929 | 167 | 500 | 30 | 16 | 415 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 152 | 117 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 39 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 222 | 397 | 393 | 791 | 171 | 293 | 26 | 20 | 362 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 40 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 324 | 425 | 353 | 778 | 29 | 379 | 12 | 15 | 363 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 332 | 280 | 78 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 72 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 279 | 388 | 454 | 841 | 175 | 347 | 22 | 11 | 376 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 150 | 133 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 38 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 226 | 299 | 331 | 630 | 105 | 292 | 25 | 9 | 281 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 318 | 279 | 82 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 64 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 294 | 381 | 437 | 818 | 143 | 367 | 20 | 11 | 367 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 351 | 327 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 83 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 226 | 277 | 379 | 656 | 153 | 274 | 24 | 6 | 291 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 24 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 105 | 292 | 158 | 450 | 53 | 154 | 25 | 21 | 237 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 40 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 371 | 450 | 486 | 936 | 114 | 481 | 20 | 12 | 418 | 169 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 117 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 162 | 269 | 214 | 482 | 51 | 227 | 30 | 12 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 67 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 299 | 293 | 592 | 103 | 324 | 36 | 10 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 152 | 128 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 164 | 291 | 281 | 573 | 117 | 240 | 37 | 12 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 40 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 306 | 375 | 333 | 708 | 28 | 362 | 18 | 10 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 332 | 290 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 94 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 241 | 333 | 372 | 706 | 131 | 328 | 28 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 150 | 137 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 219 | 272 | 321 | 593 | 102 | 295 | 32 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 318 | 291 | 71 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 90 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 244 | 308 | 368 | 676 | 124 | 340 | 28 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 351 | 333 | 69 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 101 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 207 | 246 | 333 | 579 | 126 | 272 | 29 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 95 | 208 | 143 | 351 | 48 | 133 | 33 | 12 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 117 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 162 | 269 | 214 | 482 | 51 | 237 | 30 | 12 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 109 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 248 | 388 | 339 | 728 | 92 | 333 | 24 | 18 | 342 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 67 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 299 | 293 | 592 | 103 | 324 | 36 | 10 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 67 | 54 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 315 | 448 | 481 | 929 | 167 | 500 | 30 | 16 | 415 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 152 | 128 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 164 | 291 | 281 | 573 | 117 | 257 | 37 | 12 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Blue Jays | — | 152 | 117 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 39 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 222 | 397 | 393 | 791 | 171 | 293 | 26 | 20 | 362 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 326 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 101 | 14 | 18 | 10 | 248 | 338 | 368 | 706 | 120 | 339 | 27 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 372 | 314 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 77 | 14 | 18 | 10 | 283 | 392 | 443 | 835 | 159 | 351 | 21 | 11 | 374 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 427 | 100 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 138 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 234 | 297 | 344 | 641 | 110 | 329 | 29 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 468 | 412 | 112 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 102 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 272 | 355 | 403 | 758 | 131 | 343 | 22 | 11 | 339 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 415 | 392 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 121 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 196 | 239 | 309 | 548 | 112 | 262 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 415 | 381 | 89 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 97 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 234 | 295 | 378 | 673 | 144 | 288 | 23 | 7 | 300 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 116 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 164 | 269 | 216 | 484 | 52 | 227 | 30 | 12 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 67 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 299 | 293 | 592 | 103 | 324 | 36 | 10 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 152 | 128 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 164 | 291 | 281 | 573 | 117 | 240 | 37 | 12 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 325 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 101 | 14 | 18 | 10 | 249 | 338 | 369 | 707 | 120 | 332 | 27 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 427 | 100 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 138 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 234 | 297 | 344 | 641 | 110 | 326 | 29 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 415 | 390 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 121 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 197 | 239 | 310 | 549 | 113 | 263 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 325 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 101 | 14 | 18 | 10 | 249 | 338 | 369 | 707 | 120 | 332 | 27 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 427 | 100 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 138 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 234 | 297 | 344 | 641 | 110 | 326 | 29 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 415 | 390 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 121 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 197 | 239 | 310 | 549 | 113 | 263 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | TOR | 2% | 485 | 449 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 131 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 220 | 274 | 336 | 610 | 116 | 288 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -17 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | TOR | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 275 | 337 | 613 | 117 | 289 | 25 | 0 | 274 | 71 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | TOR | 31% | 338 | 311 | 70 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 90 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 225 | 282 | 357 | 638 | 131 | 290 | 27 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | TOR | 45% | 380 | 349 | 80 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 100 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 229 | 286 | 370 | 657 | 141 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 51% | 404 | 371 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 106 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 231 | 289 | 378 | 668 | 147 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 53% | 413 | 379 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 108 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 231 | 290 | 378 | 668 | 147 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | TOR | 53% | 413 | 378 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 108 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 230 | 290 | 375 | 664 | 145 | 289 | 26 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -7 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | TOR | 53% | 404 | 370 | 84 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 107 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 228 | 287 | 369 | 656 | 141 | 288 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -8 | -1 | -2 | +1 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | TOR | 52% | 393 | 360 | 82 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 105 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 225 | 284 | 362 | 645 | 137 | 287 | 27 | 7 | 287 | 81 | -9 | -1 | -3 | +1 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | TOR | 31% | 105 | 96 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 282 | 358 | 641 | 132 | 291 | 27 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | TOR | 45% | 169 | 155 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 230 | 287 | 372 | 659 | 142 | 292 | 27 | 7 | 293 | 84 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 51% | 206 | 188 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 232 | 290 | 380 | 670 | 148 | 292 | 26 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -3 | -0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 53% | 217 | 198 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 232 | 291 | 379 | 670 | 147 | 291 | 26 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -3 | -0 | -0 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | TOR | 53% | 220 | 201 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 231 | 291 | 376 | 667 | 145 | 291 | 26 | 7 | 296 | 86 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | TOR | 53% | 212 | 194 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 288 | 370 | 658 | 142 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 84 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | TOR | 52% | 205 | 188 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 226 | 284 | 363 | 648 | 137 | 288 | 27 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1334 | 1220 | 282 | 50 | 12 | 34 | 91 | 352 | 10 | 24 | 16 | 231 | 290 | 375 | 665 | 144 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 294 | 78 | -25 | -2 | -4 | +5 | +29 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 138 | 24 | 6 | 17 | 44 | 172 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 232 | 290 | 379 | 669 | 146 | 297 | 26 | 7 | 294 | 78 | -12 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4563 | 4160 | 927 | 169 | 37 | 98 | 326 | 1261 | 47 | 129 | 66 | 223 | 287 | 352 | 639 | 129 | 294 | 28 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -60 | -3 | -9 | +11 | +64 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 132 | 24 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 180 | 7 | 18 | 9 | 223 | 286 | 351 | 637 | 128 | 294 | 28 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -13 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 351 PAwOBA .283 → .249 (−34)K% 23.6% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 19.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 5.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .283 → .249; ISO .153 → .125; BABIP .274 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 24 PAwOBA .232 → .171 (−61)K% 25.0% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 14.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 7.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .232 → .171; ISO .053 → .041; BABIP .154 → .133. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 318 PAwOBA .357 → .297 (−59)K% 20.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.13% | ÷0.958 | ×1.350 | — | — | 28.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.01% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.51% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 24.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 6.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.939 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 2.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.855 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 2.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 88, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .357 → .297; ISO .143 → .128; BABIP .367 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 150 PAwOBA .280 → .255 (−25)K% 25.3% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.33% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.16% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 23.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.030 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 3.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.997 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.885 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.93% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .280 → .255; ISO .105 → .097; BABIP .292 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 332 PAwOBA .367 → .311 (−56)K% 21.7% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.69% | ÷1.041 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.54% | ÷0.959 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.962 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.015 | 22.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.13% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.015 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.015 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.003 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.11% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .367 → .311; ISO .175 → .141; BABIP .347 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 40 PAwOBA .355 → .312 (−42)K% 12.5% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.980 | ×1.350 | — | — | 17.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 11.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.48% | ÷0.964 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.027 | 33.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.071 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 93, 2B 114, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .355 → .312; ISO .029 → .023; BABIP .379 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 152 PAwOBA .357 → .253 (−104)K% 25.7% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.66% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 12.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷0.968 | ×0.820 | ×1.036 | ×0.995 | 16.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | ×1.036 | ×0.995 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.042 | ×0.720 | ×1.036 | ×0.995 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.96% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 108, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .357 → .253; ISO .171 → .124; BABIP .293 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 67 PAwOBA .405 → .265 (−141)K% 29.9% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.85% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.42% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 11.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.35% | ÷1.011 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.995 | 21.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.960 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 5.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .405 → .265; ISO .167 → .101; BABIP .500 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .