Chris Meyers
OF Erie SeaWolves| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AADET | 503 | .256/.343/.430 | 18 | 4 | 74 | — | .218/.285/.356 |
| 2025 | 26 | AADET | 317 | .270/.356/.460 | 10 | 1 | 82 | — | .226/.292/.358 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AA/ADET | 371 | .256/.375/.436 | 10 | 6 | 83 | — | .218/.305/.358 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBDET | 3 | .217/.293/.349 | 0 | 0 | 85 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBDET | 48 | .216/.291/.346 | 1 | 0 | 84 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 97 | 83 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 320 | 325 | 645 | 120 | 250 | 19 | 11 | 299 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | — | 37 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 188 | 297 | 312 | 610 | 125 | 200 | 16 | 14 | 283 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 95 | 86 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 256 | 326 | 384 | 710 | 128 | 357 | 29 | 8 | 320 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 71 | 62 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 290 | 380 | 548 | 929 | 258 | 294 | 11 | 13 | 404 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 15 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 500 | 833 | 214 | 273 | 13 | 0 | 369 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 282 | 258 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 67 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 307 | 391 | 699 | 143 | 299 | 24 | 5 | 312 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 163 | 138 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 432 | 638 | 1.070 | 304 | 363 | 17 | 11 | 459 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 503 | 442 | 113 | 23 | 0 | 18 | 46 | 130 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 343 | 430 | 773 | 174 | 321 | 26 | 9 | 346 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 317 | 278 | 75 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 63 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 270 | 356 | 460 | 816 | 191 | 314 | 20 | 10 | 360 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 45 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 311 | 237 | 548 | 53 | 304 | 33 | 13 | 267 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 295 | 249 | 67 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 69 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 269 | 383 | 462 | 845 | 193 | 339 | 23 | 14 | 378 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 31 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 387 | 480 | 867 | 240 | 333 | 29 | 16 | 386 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 97 | 87 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 161 | 247 | 264 | 512 | 103 | 211 | 26 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers West | — | 37 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 147 | 216 | 265 | 481 | 118 | 156 | 24 | 8 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 95 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 216 | 274 | 341 | 615 | 125 | 328 | 39 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 71 | 66 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 258 | 310 | 455 | 764 | 197 | 268 | 15 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 429 | 695 | 214 | 207 | 20 | 0 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 282 | 264 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 87 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 257 | 314 | 572 | 102 | 282 | 31 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 163 | 144 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 292 | 370 | 549 | 919 | 257 | 318 | 21 | 7 | 382 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 503 | 458 | 100 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 157 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 285 | 356 | 641 | 138 | 292 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 317 | 288 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 74 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 358 | 650 | 132 | 277 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 45 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 244 | 220 | 464 | 49 | 275 | 40 | 7 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 295 | 262 | 60 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 84 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 229 | 315 | 378 | 693 | 149 | 313 | 28 | 9 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 31 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 290 | 370 | 661 | 185 | 270 | 39 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 134 | 121 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 157 | 239 | 256 | 495 | 99 | 198 | 25 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 134 | 115 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 200 | 313 | 322 | 635 | 122 | 236 | 18 | 12 | 295 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 181 | 168 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 51 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 276 | 357 | 633 | 137 | 292 | 28 | 6 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 181 | 162 | 44 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 272 | 348 | 457 | 805 | 185 | 322 | 21 | 9 | 357 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 408 | 96 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 122 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 294 | 390 | 684 | 154 | 298 | 27 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 445 | 396 | 110 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 33 | 95 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 278 | 353 | 477 | 830 | 199 | 322 | 21 | 7 | 366 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 503 | 458 | 100 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 157 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 285 | 356 | 641 | 138 | 295 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 503 | 442 | 113 | 23 | 0 | 18 | 46 | 130 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 343 | 430 | 773 | 174 | 321 | 26 | 9 | 346 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 317 | 288 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 74 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 358 | 650 | 132 | 278 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 317 | 278 | 75 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 63 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 270 | 356 | 460 | 816 | 191 | 314 | 20 | 10 | 360 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 371 | 329 | 72 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 114 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 219 | 307 | 359 | 666 | 140 | 309 | 31 | 9 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 371 | 312 | 80 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 93 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 256 | 375 | 436 | 811 | 179 | 335 | 25 | 14 | 365 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 134 | 120 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 158 | 239 | 258 | 497 | 100 | 196 | 25 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 181 | 166 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 51 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 276 | 361 | 638 | 139 | 294 | 28 | 6 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 408 | 96 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 122 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 294 | 390 | 684 | 154 | 295 | 27 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 503 | 455 | 100 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 157 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 285 | 358 | 644 | 138 | 292 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 317 | 287 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 74 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 359 | 651 | 132 | 277 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 371 | 326 | 72 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 114 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 221 | 307 | 362 | 669 | 141 | 305 | 31 | 9 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 503 | 455 | 100 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 157 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 285 | 358 | 644 | 138 | 292 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 317 | 287 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 74 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 359 | 651 | 132 | 277 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 371 | 326 | 72 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 114 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 221 | 307 | 362 | 669 | 141 | 305 | 31 | 9 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 2% | 380 | 341 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 106 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 222 | 296 | 358 | 655 | 137 | 291 | 28 | 8 | 294 | 85 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 293 | 349 | 642 | 132 | 286 | 33 | 0 | 289 | 85 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 23% | 212 | 190 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 59 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 295 | 354 | 649 | 134 | 290 | 28 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 23% | 48 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 291 | 346 | 637 | 130 | 285 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 84 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 292 | 326 | 617 | 116 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 79 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 176 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 292 | 328 | 620 | 119 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 79 | -13 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2318 | 2101 | 463 | 93 | 11 | 59 | 157 | 653 | 50 | 27 | 6 | 220 | 290 | 359 | 650 | 139 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 130 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 183 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 221 | 291 | 362 | 652 | 141 | 288 | 28 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -12 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 295 PAwOBA .368 → .305 (−63)K% 23.4% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.39% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 9.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.03% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 20.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 8.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .368 → .305; ISO .193 → .155; BABIP .339 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 45 PAwOBA .251 → .208 (−44)K% 33.3% → 40.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 20.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .208; ISO .053 → .043; BABIP .304 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 31 PAwOBA .376 → .269 (−108)K% 29.0% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.950 | 10.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.950 | 2.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.950 | 10.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.950 | 14.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.950 | 4.75% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.0 → −5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .269; ISO .240 → .171; BABIP .333 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 317 PAwOBA .353 → .289 (−64)K% 19.9% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.87% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.09% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.93% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 19.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.91% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.39% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .353 → .289; ISO .191 → .144; BABIP .314 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 503 PAwOBA .338 → .278 (−59)K% 25.8% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.37% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .338 → .278; ISO .174 → .140; BABIP .321 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 282 PAwOBA .304 → .252 (−52)K% 23.8% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.76% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.96% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.56% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 22.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.24% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.71% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.53% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .304 → .252; ISO .143 → .108; BABIP .299 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 163 PAwOBA .448 → .382 (−66)K% 17.2% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.18% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 21.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.43% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.68% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.91% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 19.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.82% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 9.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.18% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 7.34% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .448 → .382; ISO .304 → .266; BABIP .363 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 95 PAwOBA .312 → .247 (−65)K% 29.5% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.47% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 39.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.42% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 25.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.25% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .312 → .247; ISO .128 → .104; BABIP .357 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).