Tristin English
RF Columbus Clingstones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAAARI | 479 | .263/.328/.424 | 16 | 3 | 57 | — | .207/.261/.315 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAAARI | 417 | .325/.370/.514 | 14 | 0 | 104 | — | .284/.322/.430 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBARI | 23 | .091/.130/.136 | 0 | 0 | -33 | -1.1 | |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA/AAATL | 146 | .219/.262/.394 | 6 | 1 | 38 | — | .186/.221/.329 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 30 | MLBATL | 2 | .248/.288/.384 | 0 | 0 | 88 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 31 | MLBATL | 26 | .244/.285/.375 | 1 | 0 | 84 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 348 | 302 | 73 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 87 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 242 | 328 | 391 | 719 | 149 | 297 | 25 | 8 | 319 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 269 | 230 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 274 | 377 | 396 | 773 | 122 | 320 | 17 | 11 | 352 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 166 | 153 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 261 | 315 | 431 | 747 | 170 | 312 | 23 | 5 | 330 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 371 | 321 | 94 | 20 | 0 | 17 | 40 | 82 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 293 | 383 | 514 | 897 | 221 | 342 | 22 | 11 | 393 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 78 | 66 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 436 | 712 | 1.148 | 379 | 410 | 27 | 15 | 487 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 39 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 282 | 324 | 606 | 81 | 333 | 26 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 479 | 434 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 95 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 263 | 328 | 424 | 752 | 161 | 301 | 20 | 7 | 334 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 23 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 136 | 267 | 45 | 143 | 35 | 4 | 126 | -33 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +0 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 417 | 385 | 125 | 31 | 0 | 14 | 21 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 325 | 370 | 514 | 885 | 190 | 356 | 15 | 5 | 386 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 55 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 241 | 245 | 486 | 82 | 189 | 22 | 5 | 225 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 91 | 88 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 275 | 477 | 752 | 227 | 283 | 25 | 2 | 327 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 23 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 136 | 267 | 45 | 143 | 35 | 4 | 126 | -29 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +0 | -1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 348 | 311 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 121 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 170 | 243 | 273 | 517 | 103 | 227 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 269 | 240 | 54 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 306 | 308 | 614 | 83 | 276 | 21 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 166 | 156 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 255 | 346 | 601 | 135 | 273 | 30 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 371 | 336 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 104 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 241 | 307 | 396 | 703 | 155 | 306 | 28 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 78 | 69 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 321 | 449 | 770 | 217 | 321 | 33 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 479 | 444 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 118 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 207 | 261 | 315 | 576 | 108 | 254 | 25 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 23 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 136 | 267 | 45 | 143 | 35 | 4 | 119 | -33 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +0 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 417 | 391 | 111 | 24 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 73 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 284 | 322 | 430 | 752 | 146 | 317 | 18 | 4 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 55 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 160 | 222 | 240 | 462 | 80 | 171 | 25 | 4 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 91 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 220 | 382 | 602 | 180 | 248 | 31 | 1 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 348 | 311 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 121 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 170 | 243 | 273 | 517 | 103 | 238 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | Hillsboro Hops | — | 348 | 302 | 73 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 87 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 242 | 328 | 391 | 719 | 149 | 297 | 25 | 8 | 319 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 435 | 395 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 107 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 291 | 334 | 625 | 111 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 435 | 383 | 103 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 86 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 269 | 353 | 410 | 763 | 141 | 317 | 20 | 9 | 344 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 488 | 441 | 106 | 24 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 140 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 240 | 309 | 404 | 713 | 163 | 312 | 29 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 488 | 424 | 125 | 30 | 0 | 23 | 54 | 113 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 295 | 384 | 528 | 912 | 233 | 351 | 23 | 11 | 398 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 479 | 444 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 118 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 207 | 261 | 315 | 576 | 108 | 257 | 25 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 479 | 434 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 95 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 263 | 328 | 424 | 752 | 161 | 301 | 20 | 7 | 334 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 440 | 413 | 113 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 274 | 312 | 414 | 726 | 140 | 315 | 18 | 4 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 440 | 407 | 127 | 32 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 358 | 494 | 852 | 182 | 347 | 16 | 5 | 373 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 146 | 139 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 207 | 295 | 502 | 122 | 213 | 29 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 146 | 137 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 262 | 394 | 656 | 175 | 247 | 24 | 3 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 348 | 315 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 121 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 168 | 243 | 270 | 513 | 102 | 227 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 435 | 394 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 107 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 112 | 275 | 25 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 488 | 441 | 106 | 24 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 140 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 240 | 309 | 404 | 713 | 163 | 309 | 29 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 479 | 444 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 118 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 207 | 261 | 315 | 576 | 108 | 254 | 25 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 440 | 414 | 113 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 312 | 413 | 725 | 140 | 308 | 18 | 4 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 146 | 139 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 207 | 295 | 502 | 122 | 219 | 29 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 479 | 444 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 118 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 207 | 261 | 315 | 576 | 108 | 254 | 25 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 440 | 414 | 113 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 312 | 413 | 725 | 140 | 308 | 18 | 4 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 146 | 139 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 207 | 295 | 502 | 122 | 219 | 29 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | ATL | 2% | 200 | 188 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 288 | 384 | 672 | 136 | 299 | 22 | 4 | 298 | 88 | -3 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | ATL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 288 | 384 | 672 | 136 | 299 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 88 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | ATL | 23% | 115 | 108 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 285 | 375 | 660 | 131 | 296 | 23 | 3 | 293 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -3 | -1 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | ATL | 23% | 26 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 285 | 375 | 660 | 131 | 296 | 23 | 4 | 293 | 84 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 49 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 204 | 277 | 481 | 106 | 219 | 29 | 4 | 214 | 73 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -8 | +1 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 623 | 106 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 205 | 276 | 481 | 106 | 219 | 29 | 4 | 214 | 73 | -53 | +0 | -11 | -108 | +14 | -16.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2575 | 2367 | 531 | 97 | 4 | 65 | 132 | 663 | 54 | 17 | 14 | 224 | 281 | 351 | 632 | 127 | 281 | 26 | 5 | 276 | 73 | -8 | +0 | -3 | -10 | +6 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 133 | 24 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 167 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 223 | 279 | 347 | 626 | 124 | 279 | 26 | 5 | 276 | 73 | -19 | +0 | -7 | -26 | +14 | -3.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 91 PAwOBA .317 → .249 (−69)K% 25.3% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.27% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 1.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.958 | 17.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.958 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.017 | ×0.958 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 5.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .317 → .249; ISO .227 → .169; BABIP .283 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 55 PAwOBA .223 → .185 (−38)K% 21.8% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 3.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.64% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 3.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×0.982 | 15.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×0.982 | 2.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .223 → .185; ISO .082 → .059; BABIP .189 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAReno Aces · 417 PAwOBA .378 → .322 (−56)K% 14.9% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.87% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.04% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.77% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×0.992 | 23.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.60% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×0.992 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .378 → .322; ISO .190 → .147; BABIP .356 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAReno Aces · 479 PAwOBA .327 → .252 (−75)K% 19.8% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.68% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.09% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.01% | ÷1.076 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.025 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷1.124 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .327 → .252; ISO .161 → .108; BABIP .301 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAReno Aces · 371 PAwOBA .384 → .307 (−77)K% 22.1% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.10% | ÷0.951 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷1.096 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.85% | ÷1.026 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 22.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷1.059 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.11% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .384 → .307; ISO .221 → .161; BABIP .342 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 78 PAwOBA .474 → .325 (−149)K% 26.9% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 11.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 17.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.56% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 12.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 6.44% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .474 → .325; ISO .379 → .211; BABIP .410 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 269 PAwOBA .345 → .279 (−65)K% 17.5% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.47% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.78% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.35% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 22.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.46% | ÷1.022 | ×0.840 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.940 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.094 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .345 → .279; ISO .122 → .094; BABIP .320 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 166 PAwOBA .322 → .264 (−58)K% 23.5% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.49% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 30.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.42% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 3.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.68% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 21.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 3.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.006 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.848 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 5.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 93, 2B 120, 3B 101, K 109, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .322 → .264; ISO .170 → .142; BABIP .312 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .