Mauricio Dubón

SS Atlanta Braves

Age 33 R/R 5'11" / 173 lbs MLB Svc 6.942 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBHOU	428	.269/.300/.361	4	3	80	0.1
2025	31	MLBHOU	398	.241/.289/.355	7	3	78	1.7
2026	32	MLBATL	619	.276/.321/.399	12	10	102	2.5
2027PROJ	33	MLBATL	467	.260/.307/.372	8	7	91	1.8
2028PROJ	34	MLBATL	409	.249/.295/.351	6	3	82	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.942First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed36

xwOBA33

Bat Spd30

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

Form.267/.309/.385 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .259/.305/.372

CompsAmadeo Zazueta (age 33) · Erick Rodriguez (age 33) · Royce Clayton (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9591vR 80

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .307 / .372

PA467

HR8

SB7

K%12

BB%6

BABIP282

ISO113

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

560.256

POWER35

Barrel%

102.9

Avg EV

1085.8

Bat Spd

3069.2

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

3626.8

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%11%▲11% over 103 PA (60d) · proj 12%

BB%5%·5% over 103 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.118·.128 over 94 AB (60d) · proj .112

HR/BB2.2%·2.4% over 84 BBE (60d) · proj 2.1%

BABIP.286▲.329 over 82 BIP (60d) · proj .282

SLASH.267/.309/.385▲proj .259/.305/.372

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 925 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

275

650

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

306

287

◀L

ISO

109

106

◀L

BABIP

308

273

◀L

13.8%

11.8%

▶R

BB%

5.1%

4.9%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+1.3	$10M	+$0.0M
Totals		$10M		$10M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	19	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	58	53	13	3	0	0	1	12	3	6	2	245	298	302	600	57	317	21	2	272	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	269	237	65	9	0	1	23	38	3	12	3	274	346	325	671	51	320	14	9	304	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	262	236	71	12	3	4	18	34	2	18	4	301	354	428	782	127	337	13	7	342	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	270	251	85	20	6	6	11	36	3	6	3	339	372	538	910	199	374	13	4	391	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	279	235	72	11	3	0	33	25	0	24	4	306	390	379	769	72	338	9	12	339	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	77	71	15	3	1	3	4	12	2	3	2	211	273	408	681	197	214	16	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	244	224	61	15	0	6	14	34	2	7	6	272	321	420	740	147	297	14	6	325	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	304	268	74	14	0	2	25	42	1	31	9	276	337	351	687	75	319	14	8	305	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	114	108	37	9	2	4	2	19	0	6	3	343	355	574	929	231	379	17	2	390	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	111	106	29	5	0	4	5	20	0	3	1	274	306	434	740	160	305	18	5	327	113	+2	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.8
2019	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	539	503	152	26	1	20	28	68	5	10	8	302	344	477	821	175	318	13	5	362	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	177	157	43	4	1	4	15	36	1	2	3	274	339	389	728	115	328	20	8	322	109	+2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.8
2021	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	187	175	42	9	0	5	9	41	1	2	1	240	281	377	658	137	282	22	5	290	82	-4	+0	+2	+5	+4	0.7
2021	27	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	283	247	82	13	2	8	29	38	5	9	3	332	413	498	911	166	365	13	10	402	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	265	243	52	9	0	5	13	30	1	2	3	214	257	313	570	99	221	11	5	250	54	-15	-1	+5	+1	+6	-0.3
2023	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	492	467	130	26	3	10	19	70	3	7	2	278	311	411	722	133	308	14	4	319	100	-0	+1	+2	+2	+11	1.5
2024	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	428	402	108	25	0	4	16	55	2	3	2	269	300	361	661	92	299	13	4	291	80	-10	-0	+6	-5	+9	0.1
2025	31	MLB	Houston Astros	—	398	369	89	21	0	7	24	42	1	3	0	241	289	355	644	114	255	11	6	287	78	-10	+1	+16	+1	+9	1.7
2026	32	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	619	572	158	28	3	12	35	73	4	10	3	276	321	399	719	122	298	12	6	319	102	+1	+1	+2	+7	+13	2.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2677	2491	651	127	7	51	136	367	13	32	15	261	303	379	682	118	287	14	5	301	90	-32	+0	+38	+14	+58	8.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	58	53	10	2	0	0	1	17	3	6	2	189	246	226	472	38	255	29	2	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	269	246	61	8	0	1	14	56	3	12	3	248	297	293	589	45	307	21	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	262	243	68	10	3	3	12	45	2	18	4	280	319	383	702	103	324	17	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	270	255	80	18	6	4	8	45	3	6	3	314	342	478	821	165	354	17	3	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	279	248	69	9	2	0	21	37	0	24	4	278	335	331	665	52	314	13	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	244	228	50	10	0	5	10	46	2	7	6	219	258	329	587	110	249	19	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	304	280	73	14	0	1	16	54	1	31	9	261	303	321	624	61	308	18	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	114	109	31	7	1	3	1	26	0	6	3	284	291	450	740	165	342	23	1	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	111	106	29	5	0	4	5	20	0	3	1	274	306	434	740	160	305	18	5	336	113	+2	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.8
2019	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	539	514	129	21	1	15	19	91	5	10	8	251	284	383	668	132	277	17	4	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	177	158	44	4	1	4	15	36	1	2	3	278	345	392	737	114	328	20	8	329	109	+2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	187	177	42	9	0	5	7	41	1	2	1	237	270	373	643	136	282	22	4	289	82	-4	+0	+2	+5	+4	0.7
2021	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	283	255	70	11	2	6	21	44	5	9	3	275	342	404	746	129	307	16	7	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	265	243	52	9	0	5	13	30	1	2	3	214	257	313	570	99	221	11	5	248	54	-15	-1	+5	+1	+6	-0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	492	467	129	25	3	10	19	70	3	7	2	276	309	407	716	131	308	14	4	315	100	-0	+1	+2	+2	+11	1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	428	402	107	24	0	4	16	55	2	3	2	266	298	356	653	90	299	13	4	287	80	-10	-0	+6	-5	+9	0.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	398	369	88	20	0	7	24	42	1	3	0	238	287	350	636	111	255	11	6	284	78	-10	+1	+16	+1	+9	1.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	619	575	158	28	3	12	35	73	4	10	3	275	321	397	717	122	298	12	6	319	102	+1	+1	+2	+7	+13	2.5
2013	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	58	53	10	2	0	0	1	17	3	6	2	189	246	226	472	38	278	29	2	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	58	53	13	3	0	0	1	12	3	6	2	245	298	302	600	57	317	21	2	272	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	531	489	131	18	3	5	26	101	5	30	7	268	312	348	659	80	326	19	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	531	473	136	21	3	5	41	72	5	30	7	288	350	376	726	89	328	14	8	323	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	626	574	170	31	9	4	33	93	5	33	9	296	340	402	742	106	344	15	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	626	557	172	34	10	9	48	73	5	33	9	309	368	454	822	145	340	12	8	357	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	548	507	124	25	0	6	27	100	3	38	15	245	287	329	616	85	292	18	5	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	548	492	135	29	0	8	39	76	3	38	15	274	330	382	712	108	309	14	7	314	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	114	109	31	7	1	3	1	26	0	6	3	284	291	450	740	165	341	23	1	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	114	108	37	9	2	4	2	19	0	6	3	343	355	574	929	231	379	17	2	390	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	650	620	159	26	1	20	24	111	5	13	9	256	290	398	688	142	284	17	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	650	609	181	31	1	24	33	88	5	13	9	297	337	470	807	172	316	14	5	356	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	177	158	44	4	1	4	15	36	1	2	3	278	345	392	737	114	333	20	8	329	109	+2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.8
2020	26	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	177	157	43	4	1	4	15	36	1	2	3	274	339	389	728	115	328	20	8	322	109	+2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.8
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	470	432	112	20	2	11	28	85	6	11	4	259	313	391	705	132	297	18	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	470	422	124	22	2	13	38	79	6	11	4	294	361	448	808	154	332	17	8	358	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	265	243	52	9	0	5	13	30	1	2	3	214	257	313	570	99	221	11	5	248	54	-15	-1	+5	+1	+6	-0.3
2022	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	265	243	52	9	0	5	13	30	1	2	3	214	257	313	570	99	221	11	5	250	54	-15	-1	+5	+1	+6	-0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	492	467	129	25	3	10	19	70	3	7	2	276	309	407	716	131	305	14	4	315	100	-0	+1	+2	+2	+11	1.5
2023	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	492	467	130	26	3	10	19	70	3	7	2	278	311	411	722	133	308	14	4	319	100	-0	+1	+2	+2	+11	1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	428	402	107	24	0	4	16	55	2	3	2	266	298	356	653	90	296	13	4	287	80	-10	-0	+6	-5	+9	0.1
2024	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	428	402	108	25	0	4	16	55	2	3	2	269	300	361	661	92	299	13	4	291	80	-10	-0	+6	-5	+9	0.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	398	369	88	20	0	7	24	42	1	3	0	238	287	350	636	111	252	11	6	284	78	-10	+1	+16	+1	+9	1.7
2025	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	398	369	89	21	0	7	24	42	1	3	0	241	289	355	644	114	255	11	6	287	78	-10	+1	+16	+1	+9	1.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	619	575	158	28	3	12	35	73	4	10	3	275	321	397	717	122	296	12	6	319	102	+1	+1	+2	+7	+13	2.5
2026	32	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	619	572	158	28	3	12	35	73	4	10	3	276	321	399	719	122	298	12	6	319	102	+1	+1	+2	+7	+13	2.5
2013	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	58	54	10	2	0	0	1	17	3	6	2	185	246	222	468	37	255	29	2	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	531	495	131	18	3	5	26	101	5	30	7	265	312	343	655	79	315	19	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	626	583	170	31	9	4	33	93	5	33	9	292	340	396	736	105	334	15	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	548	513	124	25	0	6	27	100	3	38	15	242	287	326	612	84	282	18	5	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	114	112	31	7	1	3	1	26	0	6	3	277	291	438	728	161	342	23	1	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	650	616	159	26	1	20	24	111	5	13	9	258	290	401	691	143	282	17	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	177	159	44	4	1	4	15	36	1	2	3	277	345	390	735	113	328	20	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	470	433	112	20	2	11	28	85	6	11	4	259	313	390	704	132	297	18	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	265	249	52	9	0	5	13	30	1	2	3	209	257	305	562	96	221	11	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	492	467	129	25	3	10	19	70	3	7	2	276	309	407	716	131	308	14	4	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	428	407	107	24	0	4	16	55	2	3	2	263	298	351	649	88	299	13	4	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	398	370	88	20	0	7	24	42	1	3	0	238	287	349	635	111	255	11	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	619	575	158	28	3	12	35	73	4	10	3	275	321	397	717	122	298	12	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	428	407	107	24	0	4	16	55	2	3	2	263	298	351	649	88	299	13	4	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	398	370	88	20	0	7	24	42	1	3	0	238	287	349	635	111	255	11	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	619	575	158	28	3	12	35	73	4	10	3	275	321	397	717	122	298	12	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	539	500	129	24	2	9	31	67	3	8	2	260	307	372	679	112	282	12	6	303	91	-6	+1	+8	+6	+12	1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	467	434	113	21	2	8	27	58	3	7	2	260	307	372	679	112	282	12	6	303	91	-5	+1	+7	+5	+10	1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	409	381	95	17	2	6	23	53	2	3	1	249	295	351	646	101	274	13	6	289	82	-9	+0	+1	+4	+9	0.6
2028	34	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	409	381	95	17	2	6	23	53	2	3	1	249	295	351	646	101	274	13	6	289	82	-9	+0	+1	+4	+9	0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3086	2872	746	144	9	57	159	420	15	35	16	260	302	376	677	116	285	14	5	300	87	-41	+1	+39	+19	+67	8.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	157	30	2	12	33	88	3	7	3	260	301	375	676	116	284	14	5	300	87	-9	+0	+8	+4	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6252	5813	1523	277	27	105	312	950	44	174	65	262	305	373	678	111	296	15	5	297	87	-46	+1	+46	+24	+77	10.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	159	29	3	11	32	99	5	18	7	263	305	376	681	113	297	15	5	297	87	-8	+0	+8	+4	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 283 PAwOBA .395 → .326 (−69)K% 13.4% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.43%	÷1.034	×1.200	—	—	15.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.25%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.42%
HBP% /PA	1.77%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.67%
Singles /BIP	28.23%	÷1.049	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	23.84%
Doubles /BIP	6.22%	÷0.916	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	5.37%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.950	×1.003	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	3.83%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.70%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 107, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .395 → .326; ISO .166 → .132; BABIP .365 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 539 PAwOBA .350 → .290 (−60)K% 12.6% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.62%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	16.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.82%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×1.033	3.61%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.94%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷0.982	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	21.71%
Doubles /BIP	5.98%	÷0.981	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	4.84%
Triples /BIP	0.23%	÷1.008	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.18%
Home runs /BIP	4.60%	÷1.027	×0.780	—	×1.033	3.61%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .350 → .290; ISO .175 → .135; BABIP .318 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 114 PAwOBA .385 → .322 (−63)K% 16.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.925	×1.290	—	—	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.75%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.048	1.32%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.72%	÷1.014	×0.900	×1.023	×1.048	23.51%
Doubles /BIP	10.11%	÷1.014	×0.810	×1.023	×1.048	8.66%
Triples /BIP	2.25%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.023	×1.048	1.70%
Home runs /BIP	4.49%	÷1.124	×0.780	—	×1.048	3.27%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .385 → .322; ISO .231 → .174; BABIP .379 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 304 PAwOBA .298 → .276 (−23)K% 13.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.82%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	17.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.035	×0.680	—	×1.027	5.33%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.28%
Singles /BIP	25.66%	÷0.986	×0.920	×1.006	×1.027	24.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷0.946	×0.910	×1.006	×1.027	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.915	×0.880	×1.006	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.88%	÷1.393	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.52%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .298 → .276; ISO .075 → .067; BABIP .319 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 244 PAwOBA .317 → .257 (−60)K% 13.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.93%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.74%	÷0.995	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.30%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.84%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.961	×1.050	18.78%
Doubles /BIP	7.89%	÷1.163	×0.810	×0.961	×1.050	5.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.961	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.16%	÷0.933	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.77%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .317 → .257; ISO .147 → .115; BABIP .297 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Salem Red Sox · 279 PAwOBA .334 → .295 (−39)K% 9.0% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.96%	÷0.951	×1.420	—	—	13.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.83%	÷0.989	×0.630	—	×1.012	7.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.62%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.008	×1.012	26.47%
Doubles /BIP	5.24%	÷1.030	×0.830	×1.008	×1.012	4.30%
Triples /BIP	1.43%	÷1.150	×0.800	×1.008	×1.012	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.787	×0.900	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 100, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 90, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .334 → .295; ISO .072 → .059; BABIP .338 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 270 PAwOBA .383 → .341 (−42)K% 13.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	16.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.07%	÷1.050	×0.700	—	×1.042	2.83%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.98%
Singles /BIP	24.65%	÷1.040	×0.970	×1.005	×1.042	24.07%
Doubles /BIP	9.30%	÷0.997	×0.860	×1.005	×1.042	8.40%
Triples /BIP	2.79%	÷1.031	×0.950	×1.005	×1.042	2.69%
Home runs /BIP	2.79%	÷1.371	×0.780	—	×1.042	1.65%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 108, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .383 → .341; ISO .199 → .161; BABIP .374 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Salem Red Sox · 269 PAwOBA .298 → .263 (−36)K% 14.1% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.13%	÷0.960	×1.420	—	—	20.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.55%	÷1.036	×0.630	—	×1.027	5.34%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.99%
Singles /BIP	27.64%	÷1.026	×0.940	×1.030	×1.027	26.79%
Doubles /BIP	4.52%	÷0.970	×0.830	×1.030	×1.027	4.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.800	×1.030	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.50%	÷0.841	×0.900	—	×1.027	0.55%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .298 → .263; ISO .051 → .048; BABIP .320 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Craig Reynolds'75-'89 * career totals — 14 seasons, 4,863 PA	7.3	4,863	42	58	251*	289*	370*	+47	+27	11.2	11.4
/162	664	6	8	+6.4	+3.6	1.5	pk7: 12
#2Kyle Farmerlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,367 PA	3.6	2,367	63	16	247	306	388	+17	+23	8.9	9.0
/162	664	18	4	+4.7	+6.4	2.5	pk7: 9
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	5.4	3,553	65	42	260	299	375	+35	+50	8.0	8.0
/162	664	12	8	+6.6	+9.4	1.5	pk7: 8
#4Thairo Estradalast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,870 PA	2.8	1,870	51	53	251	299	392	+8	+29	7.8	7.8
/162	664	18	19	+2.7	+10.3	2.8	pk7: 8
#5Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#6Rob Wilfong'77-'87 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,014 PA	4.5	3,014	39	54	243*	302*	363*	+10	+49	6.8	6.7
/162	664	9	12	+2.2	+10.7	1.5	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mauricio Dubón (OGILVIE)	33	50	35	55	30	258/305/369	111	282	8	7	12%	6%	91	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Amadeo Zazueta 2019 · AAA	33	56→61	41→40	48→50	45	270/299/370	100	297	8	12	13%	4%	88	+0.4	244/287/349	105	264	9	10	11%	4%	79	-0.2	249/288/341	93	264	7	7	9%	4%	77	-0.3
✕Erick Rodriguez 2013 · AAA	33	53	40	46→40	46	253/283/338	85	273	8	4	11%	4%	74	-0.5	231/259/298	67	254	5	4	11%	4%	56	-1.9	240/267/309	69	268	6	1	13%	3%	58	-0.8
✕Royce Clayton 2003 · MLB	33	50→57	45	47→50	48	246/297/372	126	278	12	11	17%	6%	88	+0.5	248/303/357	109	293	10	9	18%	7%	87	+0.4	261/313/353	92	318	4	13	18%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Issmael Salas 2015 · AAA	33	48	41→45	49→50	45	230/274/325	95	265	9	5	17%	5%	69	-0.9	236/279/340	104	267	10	7	15%	5%	74	-0.5	237/282/342	105	262	10	5	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Brad Ausmus 2002 · MLB	33	51→56	41→45	48→45	53	243/307/351	108	272	8	8	14%	8%	87	+0.4	240/300/331	91	271	7	5	14%	7%	80	-0.1	230/302/311	81	278	6	6	18%	8%	77	-0.1
✕Wilson Valdez 2011 · MLB	33	52→62	38→40	51→55	47	245/286/325	80	273	5	12	13%	5%	73	-0.6	229/267/304	75	267	4	10	15%	5%	61	-1.5	218/252/271	53	259	1	9	16%	4%	46	-0.9
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→40	45	232/278/351	119	271	12	9	20%	6%	76	-0.4	235/277/333	98	279	10	8	19%	4%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5
✕Alcides Escobar 2019 · MLB	32	51→61	40→45	47→55	44	242/277/339	97	275	7	9	15%	4%	73	-0.6	234/278/345	111	275	9	8	18%	5%	75	-0.5	237/281/345	108	288	8	6	20%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Pablo Ozuna 2009 · MLB	34	53	41→40	45→55	48	255/297/356	102	272	8	12	10%	5%	84	+0.2	242/291/348	106	276	7	14	15%	5%	80	-0.1	254/292/337	83	298	0	20	14%	3%	74	-0.2
✕Alfredo Amezaga 2011 · MLB	33	49→56	42→40	50→55	47	239/290/347	108	277	9	12	17%	6%	80	-0.2	228/284/318	90	272	7	9	18%	7%	71	-0.8	253/302/326	73	298	5	6	16%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Miguel Rojas 2023 · MLB	34	53→61	43→45	51→50	49	256/308/376	119	281	10	12	13%	6%	93	+0.8	255/309/369	114	279	10	12	12%	7%	92	+0.7	271/325/398	128	294	11	9	12%	7%	107	+0.9
✕Chris Gomez 2004 · MLB	33	52→54	45	45→40	47	252/291/385	132	267	11	5	11%	5%	89	+0.5	269/325/358	89	292	7	6	10%	7%	95	+1.0	284/345/353	69	309	5	5	9%	8%	102	+0.6
✕Wiki Gonzalez 2007 · MLB	33	50	45	48→30	50	246/300/365	119	260	12	6	12%	6%	88	+0.5	232/278/366	134	241	17	7	12%	5%	80	-0.1	218/252/344	126	212	19	2	9%	4%	62	-0.6
✕Noe Mata 2007 · AAA	33	52→57	43→45	46→50	42	253/293/364	111	302	10	13	20%	4%	85	+0.2	252/283/360	108	293	11	9	18%	3%	80	-0.2	249/277/349	100	287	10	8	17%	3%	73	-0.4
✕Diory Hernandez 2017 · AAA	33	49→59	46→45	44→50	49	245/296/367	122	261	14	9	13%	6%	87	+0.4	238/287/372	134	274	15	9	18%	6%	85	+0.2	235/271/371	137	275	13	3	20%	4%	77	-0.1
✕Mike Lansing 2001 · MLB	33	48→49	46→50	52→45	50	238/289/367	129	258	13	9	14%	7%	84	+0.2	242/292/378	136	265	14	8	14%	6%	88	+0.4	244/288/375	130	265	13	5	13%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2012 · MLB	34	51→56	43→45	46→50	47	251/300/361	110	289	11	12	18%	6%	87	+0.4	232/277/341	109	287	11	16	22%	5%	74	-0.6	198/229/289	91	263	10	23	29%	3%	40	-0.9
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2024 · MLB	33	50→58	43→45	47→50	50	238/283/353	115	254	9	6	11%	6%	78	-0.3	240/287/344	104	258	9	9	11%	6%	78	-0.3	240/285/341	101	256	9	8	10%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Olmo Rosario 2015 · AAA	34	50→60	43→45	45→50	44	243/281/348	105	276	10	11	17%	4%	76	-0.4	267/305/367	100	294	9	12	12%	5%	90	+0.6	280/319/372	92	304	7	12	10%	5%	93	+0.5
✕Kevin Plawecki 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	40→45	47→30	48	232/292/324	92	281	7	3	20%	7%	76	-0.4	222/280/343	121	261	13	5	20%	7%	76	-0.4	205/261/322	117	231	14	0	18%	7%	61	-0.7

Mauricio Dubón

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps