Brian Hernandez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 675 | .295/.351/.419 | 13 | 1 | 101 | — | .283/.325/.377 |
| 2018 | 29 | INTLVenados de Ma… | 270 | .300/.368/.366 | 1 | 0 | 113 | — | |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 772 | .319/.373/.436 | 12 | 1 | 98 | — | .284/.320/.392 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 23 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 174 | 182 | 356 | 45 | 188 | 26 | 4 | 165 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 106 | 97 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 257 | 361 | 618 | 134 | 237 | 14 | 4 | 262 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK | AZL Angels | — | 84 | 74 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 270 | 357 | 338 | 695 | 68 | 312 | 12 | 11 | 320 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 264 | 233 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 249 | 327 | 305 | 632 | 56 | 324 | 22 | 9 | 289 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 267 | 240 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 292 | 358 | 375 | 733 | 83 | 325 | 12 | 6 | 332 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 587 | 528 | 155 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 89 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 294 | 360 | 400 | 760 | 106 | 342 | 15 | 9 | 341 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 508 | 458 | 141 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 85 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 308 | 370 | 408 | 778 | 100 | 361 | 17 | 8 | 348 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 84 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 190 | 229 | 316 | 545 | 127 | 213 | 20 | 4 | 241 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 179 | 163 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 258 | 312 | 313 | 625 | 55 | 291 | 13 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 569 | 516 | 129 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 98 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 308 | 349 | 657 | 99 | 288 | 17 | 7 | 293 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 436 | 379 | 106 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 280 | 345 | 409 | 754 | 129 | 334 | 19 | 8 | 324 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 274 | 239 | 72 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 301 | 375 | 452 | 826 | 151 | 342 | 16 | 9 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 403 | 362 | 109 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 301 | 363 | 412 | 774 | 110 | 341 | 14 | 8 | 344 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 272 | 249 | 71 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 285 | 333 | 430 | 763 | 145 | 306 | 14 | 6 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 270 | 243 | 73 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 300 | 368 | 366 | 734 | 66 | 340 | 11 | 9 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 497 | 456 | 154 | 30 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 338 | 389 | 485 | 873 | 147 | 364 | 11 | 7 | 386 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | INTL | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 275 | 250 | 71 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 284 | 344 | 348 | 692 | 64 | 314 | 10 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 23 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 174 | 182 | 356 | 45 | 165 | 35 | 4 | 122 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 106 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 218 | 286 | 504 | 92 | 214 | 20 | 3 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 84 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 262 | 244 | 505 | 38 | 255 | 17 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 264 | 242 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 70 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 231 | 285 | 281 | 566 | 50 | 306 | 27 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 267 | 247 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 259 | 309 | 336 | 645 | 77 | 300 | 17 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 587 | 546 | 137 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 123 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 251 | 298 | 344 | 643 | 93 | 306 | 21 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 508 | 473 | 134 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 94 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 283 | 326 | 368 | 694 | 85 | 334 | 19 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 84 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 193 | 275 | 468 | 113 | 190 | 27 | 2 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 569 | 531 | 118 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 114 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 261 | 299 | 561 | 77 | 258 | 20 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Vaqueros de la Laguna | — | 436 | 394 | 102 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 102 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 259 | 300 | 360 | 660 | 102 | 311 | 23 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 403 | 374 | 106 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 69 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 283 | 325 | 377 | 702 | 94 | 327 | 17 | 5 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 497 | 469 | 133 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 284 | 320 | 392 | 712 | 109 | 311 | 13 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 213 | 198 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 231 | 258 | 488 | 66 | 235 | 21 | 4 | 213 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 213 | 193 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 288 | 332 | 620 | 98 | 263 | 15 | 7 | 274 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 531 | 489 | 120 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 116 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 245 | 297 | 309 | 606 | 63 | 311 | 22 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 531 | 473 | 128 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 91 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 271 | 343 | 340 | 683 | 70 | 325 | 17 | 8 | 311 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 587 | 546 | 137 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 123 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 251 | 298 | 344 | 643 | 93 | 312 | 21 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 587 | 528 | 155 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 89 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 294 | 360 | 400 | 760 | 106 | 342 | 15 | 9 | 341 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 771 | 718 | 192 | 33 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 152 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 267 | 310 | 355 | 665 | 88 | 322 | 20 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 771 | 700 | 198 | 35 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 126 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 283 | 341 | 376 | 717 | 93 | 328 | 16 | 7 | 321 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 569 | 531 | 118 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 114 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 261 | 299 | 561 | 77 | 266 | 20 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 569 | 516 | 129 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 98 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 308 | 349 | 657 | 99 | 288 | 17 | 7 | 293 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 710 | 643 | 167 | 33 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 167 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 260 | 304 | 364 | 668 | 104 | 331 | 24 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 710 | 618 | 178 | 41 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 127 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 288 | 357 | 426 | 782 | 138 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 338 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 675 | 625 | 177 | 30 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 115 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 283 | 325 | 373 | 698 | 90 | 332 | 17 | 5 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 675 | 611 | 180 | 35 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 94 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 295 | 351 | 419 | 770 | 124 | 327 | 14 | 7 | 340 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL MLE | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 270 | 243 | 73 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 300 | 368 | 366 | 734 | 66 | 340 | 11 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL RAW | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 270 | 243 | 73 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 300 | 368 | 366 | 734 | 66 | 340 | 11 | 9 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 772 | 727 | 207 | 36 | 3 | 13 | 36 | 102 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 285 | 322 | 396 | 718 | 111 | 315 | 13 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 772 | 706 | 225 | 43 | 2 | 12 | 57 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 319 | 373 | 436 | 809 | 118 | 346 | 11 | 7 | 360 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 213 | 201 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 231 | 254 | 485 | 65 | 225 | 21 | 4 | 213 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 531 | 490 | 120 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 116 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 245 | 297 | 308 | 605 | 63 | 303 | 22 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 587 | 545 | 137 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 123 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 251 | 298 | 345 | 643 | 94 | 306 | 21 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 771 | 721 | 192 | 33 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 152 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 266 | 310 | 354 | 663 | 87 | 314 | 20 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 569 | 536 | 118 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 114 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 261 | 297 | 558 | 76 | 258 | 20 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 710 | 663 | 167 | 33 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 167 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 252 | 304 | 353 | 657 | 101 | 311 | 24 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 675 | 631 | 177 | 30 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 115 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 281 | 325 | 369 | 695 | 89 | 327 | 17 | 5 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 772 | 726 | 207 | 36 | 3 | 13 | 36 | 102 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 285 | 322 | 397 | 719 | 112 | 311 | 13 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5098 | 4720 | 1229 | 219 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 964 | 48 | 28 | 30 | 260 | 305 | 349 | 654 | 89 | 312 | 19 | 5 | 268 | 68 | -196 | -6 | +0 | +18 | +110 | -7.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 157 | 28 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 123 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 261 | 305 | 350 | 655 | 90 | 312 | 19 | 5 | 268 | 68 | -25 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAATigres de Quintana Roo · 497 PAwOBA .376 → .312 (−63)K% 11.1% → 13.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.07% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.64% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.68% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 24.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.48% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.898 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 2.06% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 92, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .376 → .312; ISO .147 → .115; BABIP .364 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAATigres de Quintana Roo · 403 PAwOBA .336 → .305 (−31)K% 14.1% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.14% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.44% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.89% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 26.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.898 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.51% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 98, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .336 → .305; ISO .110 → .094; BABIP .341 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAVaqueros de la Laguna · 436 PAwOBA .317 → .285 (−33)K% 19.3% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.27% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.57% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.08% | ÷0.963 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 24.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.71% | ÷0.929 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.03% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 93, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .317 → .285; ISO .129 → .108; BABIP .334 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAArkansas Travelers · 569 PAwOBA .288 → .248 (−40)K% 17.2% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.22% | ÷1.047 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.68% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.49% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 20.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.46% | ÷1.033 | ×0.840 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.91% | ÷1.022 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .288 → .248; ISO .099 → .080; BABIP .288 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAArkansas Travelers · 508 PAwOBA .340 → .307 (−33)K% 16.7% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.73% | ÷1.106 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.89% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.22% | ÷0.961 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 27.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.70% | ÷0.972 | ×0.840 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.88% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.50% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 121, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .340 → .307; ISO .100 → .086; BABIP .361 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 84 PAwOBA .237 → .201 (−36)K% 20.2% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.24% | ÷0.994 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷1.048 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 2.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.52% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 13.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.063 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.820 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 3.50% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 122, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .237 → .201; ISO .127 → .115; BABIP .213 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 587 PAwOBA .333 → .281 (−52)K% 15.2% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.16% | ÷0.971 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.35% | ÷1.038 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.97% | ÷1.031 | ×0.910 | ×1.037 | ×0.978 | 23.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷0.911 | ×0.820 | ×1.037 | ×0.978 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.133 | ×0.760 | ×1.037 | ×0.978 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.848 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 1.45% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 106, 2B 82, 3B 127, K 94, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .333 → .281; ISO .106 → .097; BABIP .342 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 267 PAwOBA .323 → .287 (−37)K% 12.4% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.36% | ÷0.969 | ×1.340 | — | — | 17.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.62% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 3.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.54% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 25.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.931 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.018 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.823 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 104, 2B 86, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .323 → .287; ISO .083 → .081; BABIP .325 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .