Alejandro Osuna — OGILVIE

Alejandro OsunaLF Texas Rangers

Age 23 L/L 5'9" / 185 lbs MLB Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION290 act + 193 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†98

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .350 / .368

PA193

HR3

SB8

K%19

BB%9

BABIP315

ISO107

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

903.3%

xwOBA

640.325

POWER45

Barrel%

113.2

Avg EV

3688.0

Bat Spd

4971.2

EYE55

Chase%

9013.9%

SPEED60

Sprint

7628.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$13M	+$10M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+2.0	$13M	+$7M
2030	Arb-3	$11M	+2.0	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$24M		$50M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	2 teams	—	329	287	49	15	0	6	29	132	7	19	7	171	263	286	549	115	285	40	9	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	A	2 teams	—	329	267	63	19	0	7	49	92	7	19	7	236	368	386	754	150	329	28	15	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	409	368	97	12	1	9	26	93	5	34	18	264	321	375	696	111	322	23	6	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	409	351	106	15	1	9	42	68	5	34	18	302	383	427	811	125	345	17	10	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	319	276	57	13	1	5	32	100	6	16	5	207	303	315	618	109	297	31	10	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	319	261	67	14	1	5	47	69	6	16	5	257	382	375	758	119	325	22	15	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	3 teams	—	582	536	123	24	5	17	28	181	11	19	6	229	282	388	670	159	312	31	5	289	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	3 teams	—	582	506	149	32	5	20	58	135	11	19	6	294	379	496	875	202	365	23	10	382	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	4 teams	—	484	418	99	19	3	5	48	93	13	27	12	237	334	333	667	96	290	19	10	297	86	-8	+1	+0	-5	+14	0.1
2025	22	MLB	4 teams	—	484	401	104	18	3	4	65	78	13	27	12	259	380	349	729	90	310	16	13	336	115	+8	+1	+0	-5	+14	1.8
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	TEX	—	290	252	64	8	0	2	27	42	8	11	3	254	345	310	654	56	297	14	9	301	88	-4	+1	-0	-3	+8	0.2
YTD	23	MLB	TEX	—	290	248	66	9	0	2	31	38	8	11	3	266	366	327	692	60	306	13	11	321	104	+1	+1	-0	-3	+8	0.7
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	100%	193	168	44	7	1	3	18	36	5	8	2	261	350	368	718	107	303	19	9	313	98	-1	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.4
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	100%	193	168	44	7	1	3	18	36	5	8	2	262	351	369	720	107	305	19	9	296	85	-3	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.1
FULL	23	MLB	TEX	—	483	420	108	15	1	5	45	78	13	19	5	257	347	333	681	76	304	16	9	299	87	-7	+2	+0	-5	+14	0.4
TOT	23	MLB	TEX	—	483	420	108	15	1	5	45	78	13	19	5	257	347	333	680	76	304	16	9	306	92	-4	+2	+0	-5	+14	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TEX	92%	542	474	122	20	2	8	50	98	13	20	5	257	345	359	703	101	306	18	9	321	104	+2	+2	+1	-6	+15	1.5
2028	25	MLB	TEX	92%	547	478	125	20	2	10	51	98	13	21	5	262	349	374	723	113	307	18	9	326	108	+5	+2	+1	-6	+15	1.8
2029	26	MLB	TEX	92%	547	478	125	20	2	10	51	98	13	21	5	262	349	374	723	113	307	18	9	329	110	+6	+2	+1	-6	+15	1.9
2030	27	MLB	TEX	92%	542	472	124	20	2	10	52	97	13	20	5	263	352	377	729	114	307	18	10	329	110	+6	+2	+1	-6	+15	1.9
2031	28	MLB	TEX	92%	534	465	121	19	2	10	51	97	13	19	5	260	350	374	724	114	306	18	10	328	109	+5	+2	+0	-6	+15	1.7
2032	29	MLB	TEX	92%	522	454	117	19	1	9	50	96	13	17	4	258	348	363	712	106	305	18	10	326	107	+4	+2	-1	-6	+15	1.5
2033	30	MLB	TEX	92%	510	444	114	18	1	9	49	95	12	15	4	257	347	363	709	106	304	19	10	323	105	+3	+1	-1	-5	+14	1.2
2034	31	MLB	TEX	92%	495	432	109	17	1	8	48	93	12	13	3	252	343	352	695	100	301	19	10	318	102	+1	+1	-2	-5	+14	0.9
2027	24	MLB	TEX	92%	499	438	114	19	2	8	46	90	12	19	5	260	347	368	714	107	308	18	9	305	92	-5	+2	+1	-5	+14	0.7
2028	25	MLB	TEX	92%	503	439	116	19	2	9	47	90	12	19	5	264	351	378	730	114	308	18	9	310	95	-3	+2	+1	-5	+14	0.9
2029	26	MLB	TEX	92%	503	439	117	19	2	10	47	90	12	19	5	267	353	387	741	121	309	18	9	313	97	-1	+2	+1	-5	+14	1.0
2030	27	MLB	TEX	92%	499	437	115	18	2	10	47	90	12	19	5	263	351	382	733	119	308	18	9	313	97	-1	+2	+1	-5	+14	1.0
2031	28	MLB	TEX	92%	491	429	111	18	1	9	47	89	12	18	4	259	348	368	717	110	308	18	10	312	97	-2	+2	+0	-5	+14	0.9
2032	29	MLB	TEX	92%	480	419	108	17	1	9	46	88	12	16	4	258	348	368	716	110	307	18	10	309	95	-3	+2	-0	-5	+14	0.7
2033	30	MLB	TEX	92%	469	410	105	17	1	8	45	87	11	14	3	256	345	361	706	105	305	19	10	306	93	-4	+2	-1	-5	+13	0.5
2034	31	MLB	TEX	92%	455	397	101	16	1	8	44	86	11	12	3	254	345	360	705	106	303	19	10	302	89	-5	+1	-2	-5	+13	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4268	3727	963	154	13	76	408	780	101	149	40	258	347	368	715	109	307	18	10	307	93	-33	+14	+0	-49	+121	5.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	147	23	2	12	62	119	15	23	6	259	347	370	717	111	307	18	10	307	93	-5	+2	+0	-7	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	6555	5750	1426	243	24	119	583	1407	149	269	86	248	333	361	694	113	306	21	9	311	96	-27	+19	+0	-70	+186	11.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	141	24	2	12	58	140	15	27	9	247	333	360	692	112	306	22	9	311	96	-3	+2	+0	-7	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	243	201	45	14	0	6	34	74	5	17	5	224	350	383	733	159	320	30	14	331	112	+3	+1	—	—	+7	1.2
2021	18	INTL	Mexico	—	86	66	18	5	0	1	15	18	2	2	2	273	422	394	816	121	354	21	17	364	137	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.6
2022	19	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	89	78	22	2	0	1	6	17	0	2	3	282	329	346	676	64	328	19	7	292	82	-2	-1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	320	273	84	13	1	8	36	51	5	32	15	308	398	451	849	143	350	16	11	375	145	+16	+0	—	—	+9	2.6
2023	20	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	303	247	64	14	1	5	46	67	5	16	5	259	386	385	771	126	330	22	15	348	125	+9	+1	—	—	+9	1.9
2023	20	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	16	14	3	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	214	312	214	527		250	12	6	259	57	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	21	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	265	235	72	18	3	9	22	57	6	7	3	306	380	523	904	217	371	22	8	394	160	+18	+0	—	—	+8	2.6
2024	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	196	173	47	6	2	9	14	52	4	10	3	272	340	486	826	214	336	27	7	355	130	+7	+1	—	—	+6	1.3
2024	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	121	98	30	8	0	2	22	26	1	2	0	306	438	449	887	143	400	21	18	402	166	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2025	22	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	176	151	32	4	0	2	21	34	2	5	4	212	316	278	594	66	256	19	12	278	71	-6	-1	+0	-5	+5	-0.7
2025	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	67	48	14	6	0	0	16	10	3	4	3	292	493	417	909	125	368	15	24	423	182	+6	-0	—	—	+2	0.8
2025	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	169	146	39	6	2	2	13	25	7	10	2	267	355	377	732	110	306	15	8	329	110	+2	+1	—	—	+5	0.8
2025	22	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	72	56	19	2	1	0	15	9	1	8	3	339	486	411	897	71	404	12	21	415	176	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	176	151	32	4	0	2	21	34	2	5	4	212	316	278	594	66	256	19	12	278	71	-6	-1	+0	-5	+5	-0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Darin Erstadlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,564 PA	10	4,564	72	120	282	334	395	-33	+28	16.3	16.3
	/162	664	10	17	282	334	395	-4.8	+4.1	2.4	pk7: 16
#2Gerardo Parralast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,290 PA	12	5,290	90	97	275	322	403	-51	+11	12.3	12.3
	/162	664	11	12	275	322	403	-6.3	+1.4	1.5	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,603	78	157	257	343	363	-49	+1	11.7	10.9
	/162	664	11	23	257	343	363	-7.1	+0.2	1.7	pk7: 10
#3Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Grégor Blancolast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,301 PA	9	3,301	26	120	256	340	350	-9	-5	7.7	8.5
	/162	664	5	24	256	340	350	-1.8	-1.0	1.5	pk7: 9
#5Norichika Aokilast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,044 PA	6	3,044	33	98	285	350	387	-33	-15	7.4	7.4
	/162	664	7	21	285	350	387	-7.1	-3.4	1.6	pk7: 7
#6Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	6	2,335	57	47	263	326	406	-24	-8	5.3	5.3
#6Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	/162	664	16	13	263	326	406	-6.7	-2.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alejandro Osuna (OGILVIE)	23	60	45	60	55	257/347/333	76	304	5	19	16%	9%	92	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Tony Kemp 2015 · AA	23	56→61	41→45	56→55	53	266/338/376	110	311	7	22	16%	8%	105	+2.1	269/328/358	89	315	5	22	15%	7%	95	+1.4	277/332/373	97	313	7	21	13%	7%	98	+1.3
●Sal Frelick 2023 · AAA	23	56→59	44→45	55	48	272/327/398	125	313	10	19	17%	6%	106	+2.2	263/326/369	106	304	8	19	15%	8%	98	+1.6	266/334/365	99	304	8	20	14%	8%	99	+1.4
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	50→60	43→50	56→60	47	243/300/350	107	307	11	23	24%	8%	82	+0.5	250/312/363	113	307	11	31	21%	8%	91	+1.1	270/345/412	142	330	14	32	21%	10%	114	+2.5
✕Mike Darr 2001 · MLB	25	54	42→45	58→55	53	254/326/378	124	313	7	18	20%	10%	100	+1.7	260/340/365	105	332	7	13	22%	11%	103	+1.9	275/362/347	72	359	4	11	22%	12%	101	+1.0
✕Jose Tabata 2012 · MLB	23	57→60	41→45	53→55	52	272/332/376	104	313	7	25	15%	8%	102	+1.9	259/319/362	103	301	6	13	15%	7%	93	+1.3	259/316/352	93	300	4	8	14%	6%	87	+0.6
●Gerardo Parra 2010 · MLB	23	58→62	42→50	50→55	47	276/320/386	110	322	8	14	17%	6%	99	+1.7	272/325/390	118	326	8	13	18%	7%	103	+1.9	265/314/395	129	304	10	11	16%	6%	95	+1.4
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	50→59	42→50	57→60	47	243/299/352	109	307	9	27	23%	8%	82	+0.5	255/311/368	113	311	9	26	20%	8%	92	+1.2	263/322/384	122	308	9	27	17%	8%	99	+1.8
✕Garin Cecchini 2014 · AA	23	57→62	41→45	56→55	51	269/339/379	110	344	6	21	22%	9%	106	+2.2	229/285/318	89	303	7	13	25%	6%	68	-0.5	210/259/285	76	275	6	12	25%	5%	46	-1.6
★Chris Coghlan 2009 · AA	24	53→63	43→50	55	52	253/321/378	125	291	9	21	16%	8%	98	+1.6	279/345/408	129	326	9	16	16%	8%	116	+2.8	284/352/414	131	330	9	14	16%	9%	117	+2.4
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2010 · AA	23	57→67	39→45	55→60	49	266/334/354	88	341	5	23	22%	8%	97	+1.5	253/305/327	74	314	3	28	19%	6%	78	+0.2	256/323/359	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	92	+0.7
●Denard Span 2009 · MLB	25	57→64	40→50	55	51	270/330/372	102	324	6	25	18%	8%	100	+1.7	276/347/376	100	316	6	21	14%	9%	108	+2.3	272/340/419	147	300	13	12	14%	9%	115	+2.6
●Kolten Wong 2014 · MLB	23	53→61	42→55	56→55	46	254/298/364	109	293	9	19	16%	5%	85	+0.7	255/309/383	128	290	13	19	16%	6%	95	+1.4	274/349/416	141	313	13	20	16%	8%	116	+2.0
●Grégor Blanco 2007 · AAA	23	55→60	37→45	54→60	51	250/325/332	82	341	3	23	26%	10%	89	+0.9	248/326/316	68	319	3	18	21%	10%	85	+0.7	276/352/384	108	333	6	19	17%	10%	106	+1.6
✕Will Brennan 2023 · MLB	25	56→62	44→45	53→50	49	273/326/402	128	314	10	16	16%	6%	106	+2.2	265/306/379	114	300	10	14	15%	5%	92	+1.2	266/304/368	102	300	10	10	14%	4%	85	+0.3
●Amed Rosario 2019 · MLB	23	54→60	43→50	55	41	259/295/376	117	321	9	21	22%	4%	87	+0.8	271/308/404	133	327	13	16	20%	5%	99	+1.7	276/314/398	122	328	9	15	18%	5%	99	+1.6
●Matt Duffy 2015 · MLB	24	57→63	42→45	53→50	46	272/321/382	110	328	9	17	19%	6%	99	+1.7	275/321/395	120	320	10	13	17%	6%	102	+1.9	283/337/389	106	328	9	12	16%	6%	105	+1.8
●Leo Heras 2012 · AAA	22	57→66	43→55	54→55	47	278/318/391	113	303	10	18	12%	5%	100	+1.7	248/305/387	139	294	14	18	20%	7%	94	+1.3	250/325/413	162	319	16	18	25%	9%	107	+1.3
●Adam Eaton 2014 · MLB	25	57→65	41→45	56→55	50	270/340/380	110	319	7	23	17%	7%	108	+2.3	279/347/400	121	333	8	16	17%	8%	115	+2.7	285/357/412	127	339	9	15	17%	8%	119	+3.3
✕Jose Aguilar 2013 · AAA	23	57→61	41→45	52→55	46	271/322/371	100	315	7	16	16%	6%	97	+1.5	277/329/386	109	315	9	16	14%	6%	104	+2.0	284/341/397	113	319	9	16	13%	6%	107	+1.5
✕Dalton Pompey 2016 · MLB	23	54→59	42→45	59→55	47	257/313/366	109	322	8	26	22%	7%	92	+1.2	238/294/331	93	312	7	21	24%	7%	75	-0.0	230/290/316	85	308	7	20	26%	7%	67	-0.2