Will Brennan

RF Sacramento River Cats

Age 29 L/L 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA HR -15%H -3% Svc 3.081 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAAArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	26	AAACLE	39	.371/.410/.571	1	4	126	—	.324/.359/.486
2024	26	MLBCLE	353	.264/.310/.388	8	4	95	-0.2
2025	27	AAACLE	156	.304/.340/.419	3	2	70	—	.258/.282/.338
2026	28	AAASF	410	.302/.345/.468	11	6	91	—	.268/.303/.398
2026	28	MLBSF	23	.087/.087/.087	0	0	-60	-0.9
2027PROJ10% MLB	29	MLBSF	24	.259/.298/.379	0	0	93	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	30	MLBSF	86	.255/.294/.371	2	1	89	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.081First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.6M2028Arb-2$0.6M2029Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed71

xwOBA38

Barrel%19

Bat Spd17

Avg EV10

CompsGerardo Parra (age 29) · Juan Lagares (age 29) · David Lough (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6293vR 104

AVG/OBP/SLG.259 / .298 / .379

PA24

HR0

K%17

BB%4

BABIP289

ISO43

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

560.256

POWER40

Barrel%

194.2

Avg EV

1085.7

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024 · 353 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

318

—

wRC+

-6

104

▶▶R

wOBA

159

322

▶▶R

ISO

086

129

▶▶R

BABIP

172

301

▶▶R

17.1%

13.2%

▶▶R

BB%

0.0%

5.3%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	21	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	—	140	121	37	7	3	1	15	6	2	5	4	306	391	438	829	132	310	4	11	367	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	177	150	42	6	0	2	18	29	5	2	2	280	376	360	736	80	328	16	10	333	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Lake County Captains	—	269	238	69	22	1	4	25	43	5	13	4	290	369	441	811	151	339	16	9	362	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	45	42	15	1	1	1	2	4	1	2	1	357	400	500	900	143	378	9	4	399	150	+3	+0	-0	-7	+1	-0.4
2022	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	433	393	124	28	3	9	33	53	2	15	1	316	371	471	842	155	342	12	8	370	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	157	135	42	12	1	4	17	16	1	5	2	311	392	504	896	193	319	10	11	386	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	455	432	115	24	0	5	16	57	5	13	5	266	300	356	657	90	296	13	4	294	82	-10	+1	-1	-5	+10	-0.6
2024	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	353	330	87	13	2	8	19	48	3	4	2	264	310	388	698	124	287	14	5	311	95	-2	+0	-3	-4	+8	-0.2
2024	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	39	35	13	4	0	1	2	8	1	4	0	371	410	571	982	200	462	21	5	425	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	156	148	45	8	0	3	8	20	0	2	1	304	340	419	759	115	336	13	5	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	23	23	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	87	87	87	174		100	13	0	79	-60	-4	+0	-1	-5	+0	-0.9
2026	28	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	410	378	114	24	3	11	19	45	6	6	2	302	345	468	813	167	313	11	5	354	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	876	827	219	38	3	14	37	112	9	19	8	265	304	369	672	104	291	13	4	301	90	-11	+1	-6	-21	+19	-1.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	140	127	29	5	2	1	9	9	2	5	4	228	290	323	613	94	230	6	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	177	155	39	5	0	2	13	36	5	2	2	252	329	323	652	71	298	20	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	269	246	61	20	1	3	17	56	5	13	4	248	310	374	684	126	304	21	6	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	45	43	15	1	1	1	1	4	1	2	1	349	378	488	866	140	378	9	2	389	150	+3	+0	-0	-7	+1	-0.4
2022	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	433	400	123	24	3	7	26	61	2	15	1	307	353	435	788	128	340	14	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	157	140	40	12	1	3	12	20	1	5	2	286	346	450	796	164	295	13	8	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	455	434	115	24	0	5	14	57	5	13	5	265	296	355	651	90	296	13	3	290	82	-10	+1	-1	-5	+10	-0.6
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	353	332	87	13	2	8	17	48	3	4	2	262	304	386	690	123	287	14	5	308	95	-2	+0	-3	-4	+8	-0.2
2024	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	39	37	12	3	0	1	1	10	1	4	0	324	359	486	845	162	425	26	3	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	156	151	39	6	0	2	5	25	0	2	1	258	282	338	620	79	299	16	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	23	23	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	87	87	87	174		100	13	0	80	-60	-4	+0	-1	-5	+0	-0.9
2026	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	410	384	103	20	3	8	13	54	6	6	2	268	303	398	701	130	283	13	3	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	140	127	29	5	2	1	9	9	2	5	4	228	290	323	613	94	235	6	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Blue	—	140	121	37	7	3	1	15	6	2	5	4	306	391	438	829	132	310	4	11	367	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	446	400	98	24	1	4	31	93	10	15	6	245	315	340	655	95	306	21	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	446	388	111	28	1	6	43	72	10	15	6	286	372	410	782	124	334	16	10	350	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	635	583	179	37	6	11	39	86	4	22	4	307	355	448	802	141	339	14	6	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	635	570	181	41	5	14	52	73	4	22	4	318	379	481	859	163	339	11	8	376	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	455	434	115	24	0	5	14	57	5	13	5	265	296	355	651	90	294	13	3	290	82	-10	+1	-1	-5	+10	-0.6
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	—	455	432	115	24	0	5	16	57	5	13	5	266	300	356	657	90	296	13	4	294	82	-10	+1	-1	-5	+10	-0.6
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	392	369	98	16	2	9	18	58	4	8	2	266	307	393	700	127	294	15	5	313	98	-1	+1	-3	-4	+8	0.1
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	392	365	100	17	2	9	21	56	4	8	2	274	320	405	725	132	302	14	5	323	98	-1	+1	-3	-4	+8	0.1
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	156	151	39	6	0	2	5	25	0	2	1	258	282	338	620	79	298	16	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	156	148	45	8	0	3	8	20	0	2	1	304	340	419	759	115	336	13	5	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	433	407	105	20	3	8	13	57	6	6	2	258	291	381	672	123	278	13	3	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	433	401	116	24	3	11	19	48	6	6	2	289	331	446	777	157	301	11	4	339	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	140	128	29	5	2	1	9	9	2	5	4	227	290	320	610	94	230	6	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	446	402	98	24	1	4	31	93	10	15	6	244	315	338	654	95	302	21	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	635	587	179	37	6	11	39	86	4	22	4	305	355	445	799	140	332	14	6	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	455	433	115	24	0	5	14	57	5	13	5	266	296	356	651	90	296	13	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	392	367	98	16	2	9	18	58	4	8	2	267	307	395	702	128	301	15	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	156	150	39	6	0	2	5	25	0	2	1	260	282	340	622	80	299	16	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	433	411	105	20	3	8	13	57	6	6	2	255	291	377	668	122	273	13	3	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	392	367	98	16	2	9	18	58	4	8	2	267	307	395	702	128	301	15	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	156	150	39	6	0	2	5	25	0	2	1	260	282	340	622	80	299	16	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	433	411	105	20	3	8	13	57	6	6	2	255	291	377	668	122	273	13	3	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SF	10%	368	346	91	16	2	8	15	56	4	6	1	263	302	388	690	125	293	15	4	306	93	-3	+1	+1	-4	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	SF	10%	24	23	5	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	259	298	379	677	120	289	17	4	300	93	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SF	33%	262	246	63	11	1	5	11	41	3	3	1	260	298	379	677	120	291	16	4	300	89	-3	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SF	33%	86	82	21	4	0	2	3	13	1	1	0	255	294	371	664	115	287	15	3	295	89	-1	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	962	909	240	42	3	16	40	125	10	20	8	264	302	370	672	106	291	13	4	300	92	-12	+1	-6	-21	+21	-1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	614	162	28	2	11	27	84	7	14	5	264	302	370	672	106	290	13	4	300	92	-8	+1	-4	-14	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3157	2940	785	154	16	50	150	462	37	78	26	267	311	381	692	114	299	15	5	304	92	-16	+1	-6	-26	+30	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	605	161	32	3	10	31	95	8	16	5	266	311	379	690	112	298	15	5	304	92	-8	+1	-3	-12	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 410 PAwOBA .350 → .302 (−48)K% 11.0% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.98%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	13.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.63%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	3.17%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.36%
Singles /BIP	22.82%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.013	×0.992	21.32%
Doubles /BIP	7.21%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.013	×0.992	6.01%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.013	×0.992	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	3.30%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .350 → .302; ISO .167 → .131; BABIP .313 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 156 PAwOBA .330 → .271 (−58)K% 12.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.82%	÷0.956	×1.200	—	—	16.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.13%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.50%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.56%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.991	×1.003	24.64%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.064	×0.830	×0.991	×1.003	4.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.970	×0.991	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.34%	÷1.093	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 108, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .330 → .271; ISO .115 → .079; BABIP .336 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 39 PAwOBA .413 → .354 (−59)K% 20.5% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷0.939	×1.200	—	—	26.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.13%	÷1.036	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.48%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.45%
Singles /BIP	29.63%	÷0.977	×0.930	—	×1.018	28.71%
Doubles /BIP	14.81%	÷0.985	×0.830	—	×1.018	12.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.060	×0.700	—	×1.018	2.49%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .413 → .354; ISO .200 → .153; BABIP .462 → .425. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 433 PAwOBA .364 → .341 (−23)K% 12.2% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.24%	÷1.036	×1.200	—	—	14.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.62%	÷0.930	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.92%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.46%
Singles /BIP	24.71%	÷0.941	×0.930	×1.010	×1.048	25.85%
Doubles /BIP	8.24%	÷1.040	×0.830	×1.010	×1.048	6.96%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.010	×1.048	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	2.65%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.048	1.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .364 → .341; ISO .155 → .129; BABIP .342 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 157 PAwOBA .385 → .345 (−40)K% 10.2% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.19%	÷0.969	×1.220	—	—	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.83%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.71%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.55%
Singles /BIP	21.01%	÷1.052	×0.970	×0.994	×1.012	19.48%
Doubles /BIP	10.08%	÷0.926	×0.860	×0.994	×1.012	9.42%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷0.980	×0.950	×0.994	×1.012	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	3.36%	÷1.014	×0.780	—	×1.012	2.62%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 110, 2B 85, 3B 96, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .385 → .345; ISO .193 → .174; BABIP .319 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lake County Captains · 269 PAwOBA .354 → .293 (−60)K% 16.0% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.99%	÷1.026	×1.350	—	—	21.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.29%	÷1.017	×0.710	—	×0.998	6.47%
HBP% /PA	1.86%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	1.50%
Singles /BIP	21.54%	÷1.041	×0.910	×1.032	×0.998	19.38%
Doubles /BIP	11.28%	÷0.941	×0.830	×1.032	×0.998	10.25%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷0.900	×0.820	×1.032	×0.998	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	2.05%	÷1.222	×0.830	—	×0.998	1.39%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .354 → .293; ISO .151 → .123; BABIP .339 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 177 PAwOBA .330 → .289 (−41)K% 16.4% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.38%	÷0.977	×1.220	—	—	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.17%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.027	7.45%
HBP% /PA	2.82%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	2.47%
Singles /BIP	28.10%	÷1.042	×0.940	×1.004	×1.027	26.15%
Doubles /BIP	4.96%	÷1.129	×0.870	×1.004	×1.027	3.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.116	×0.920	×1.004	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.65%	÷0.893	×0.780	—	×1.027	1.48%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 123, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .330 → .289; ISO .080 → .069; BABIP .328 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Indians Blue · 140 PAwOBA .363 → .267 (−96)K% 4.3% → 6.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	4.29%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	6.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	6.54%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	1.01%
Singles /BIP	22.61%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×0.985	17.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.09%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	4.10%
Triples /BIP	2.61%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	1.76%
Home runs /BIP	0.87%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.67%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .363 → .267; ISO .132 → .096; BABIP .310 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#2Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#3Raimel Tapialast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,959 PA	3.0	1,959	28	60	275	319	389	-21	-13	2.1	2.1
/162	664	9	20	-7.1	-4.4	0.7	pk7: 2
#4Greg Briley'88-'93 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,670 PA	2.5	1,670	29	65	251*	309*	399*	-17	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	12	26	-6.8	-1.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Alex Presley'10-'17 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,502 PA	2.3	1,502	29	30	265*	309*	397*	-12	-10	0.6	0.9
/162	664	13	13	-5.3	-4.6	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.4	917	15	18	267	302	375	-10	-4	0.4	0.4
/162	664	11	13	-7.1	-2.6	0.3	pk7: 0
#6Hosken Powell'78-'83 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,993 PA	3.0	1,993	17	43	253*	314*	371*	-23	-6	-1.6	-1.6
/162	664	6	14	-7.7	-1.9	-0.5	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Will Brennan (OGILVIE)	29	60	40	55	35	261/299/385	124	293	5	4	15%	4%	93	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gerardo Parra 2016 · MLB	29	55→63	45→50	48→55	45	269/310/403	134	305	11	12	16%	5%	100	+1.3	264/301/390	126	307	11	10	17%	5%	94	+0.9	266/316/382	116	308	12	11	17%	6%	99	+0.8
✕Juan Lagares 2018 · MLB	29	52→62	43→45	50	43	251/294/367	116	302	9	12	20%	5%	86	+0.3	242/293/357	115	304	10	12	23%	6%	84	+0.1	225/267/350	125	287	11	5	25%	5%	73	-0.3
✕David Lough 2015 · MLB	29	53→62	44→50	53→50	45	256/297/378	122	291	10	17	16%	5%	89	+0.5	227/275/325	98	271	8	10	19%	5%	69	-0.9	214/262/292	78	255	6	7	18%	5%	56	-0.7
✕Joe Thurston 2009 · MLB	29	55→57	42→45	49→50	46	264/309/379	116	297	8	16	14%	5%	94	+0.9	240/293/357	117	278	10	11	17%	6%	84	+0.1	230/288/348	119	267	10	9	18%	6%	78	-0.2
✕BJ Boyd 2022 · AAA	29	49→57	48→45	55→50	42	245/292/384	139	301	16	13	24%	5%	90	+0.6	254/309/385	131	304	13	12	20%	6%	97	+1.1	279/339/410	130	324	10	10	16%	7%	110	+1.0
✕Nathan Lukes 2024 · MLB	30	56→55	43→45	51→50	46	269/319/386	117	320	10	13	19%	6%	100	+1.3	267/323/392	125	304	13	7	16%	7%	103	+1.5	267/325/389	122	296	14	4	15%	7%	102	+1.0
✕Ronnier Mustelier 2014 · AAA	29	53→59	45	46→50	45	260/300/385	124	294	12	9	16%	5%	93	+0.8	260/304/367	107	294	10	12	15%	5%	89	+0.5	272/316/368	96	296	8	7	11%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Buck Britton 2015 · AAA	29	51→54	45	46→45	45	251/290/374	123	277	12	5	15%	5%	86	+0.3	216/252/317	101	250	10	8	18%	4%	58	-1.7	195/226/278	83	227	8	8	18%	4%	38	-1.8
✕Hanser Alberto 2022 · MLB	29	56→61	43→45	48→50	43	271/299/393	122	292	9	8	11%	3%	94	+0.9	244/280/383	139	271	12	6	15%	4%	84	+0.2	251/265/379	129	288	7	0	16%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Raimel Tapia 2023 · MLB	29	54→64	42→50	52→55	46	261/302/366	105	301	9	16	17%	6%	88	+0.5	243/305/363	120	301	12	20	22%	8%	89	+0.5	228/308/325	96	296	11	33	25%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Ricardo Nanita 2010 · AAA	29	51→58	42→45	45→50	45	248/286/353	105	281	9	11	16%	5%	80	-0.2	263/300/377	114	293	11	10	14%	5%	91	+0.6	270/307/380	110	296	12	9	13%	4%	92	+0.5
✕Kevin Reese 2007 · AAA	29	50→51	45	48→50	46	247/306/379	132	285	12	12	18%	6%	94	+0.9	232/294/344	112	271	11	11	18%	7%	81	-0.1	223/287/318	96	257	10	9	17%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Jesus Cota 2011 · AAA	29	52→56	45→50	44→50	45	259/297/382	123	288	13	9	16%	5%	91	+0.6	224/265/343	119	263	14	7	20%	5%	70	-0.8	194/241/295	101	237	13	5	24%	6%	50	-1.3
✕Tike Redman 2006 · MLB	29	56→59	41→45	52→55	49	266/304/365	99	280	7	13	9%	5%	88	+0.5	256/298/341	85	282	5	19	11%	5%	80	-0.1	278/330/372	94	305	4	22	10%	7%	98	+0.9
✕Leury García 2021 · MLB	30	55→62	43→45	52→60	41	266/302/379	113	326	11	14	22%	4%	92	+0.7	242/294/341	99	298	8	8	21%	6%	80	-0.2	239/292/324	85	299	6	8	21%	6%	76	-0.2
●Alexis Gomez 2008 · MLB	29	50→59	46→50	52→55	39	248/282/386	138	314	12	14	25%	4%	86	+0.3	244/288/388	144	304	15	21	24%	6%	88	+0.5	281/327/419	138	322	14	35	17%	6%	110	+1.0
✕Drew T. Anderson 2010 · AAA	29	52→58	44→50	47→50	41	252/293/380	127	322	9	10	24%	5%	88	+0.5	240/297/375	135	313	11	8	25%	7%	89	+0.5	236/301/382	146	314	10	3	26%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2020 · MLB	29	55→58	43→45	49→50	47	267/301/384	117	283	10	8	11%	4%	92	+0.7	241/278/363	122	263	11	7	13%	5%	79	-0.2	240/290/336	96	257	7	8	10%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Ryan Lollis 2016 · AAA	29	53→60	40	47→45	47	251/297/345	93	287	7	9	15%	6%	82	-0.0	233/277/303	70	276	4	7	16%	5%	64	-1.3	224/267/274	50	266	2	5	16%	5%	52	-1.5
✕Joaquin Arias 2014 · MLB	29	53→62	41→45	52→55	42	256/282/359	103	288	8	8	15%	3%	79	-0.2	241/269/331	90	278	7	7	16%	4%	68	-1.0	237/253/296	59	274	2	4	14%	2%	53	-0.5

Will Brennan

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps